RBA to cut another 1%?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by unloadmymind, 28th May, 2015.

  1. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    We're going backwards...

    The Mining Boom years (2010-13) which we squandered, are well and truly behind us.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. JDP1

    JDP1 Member

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    Very likely, yes.

    The dollar is still too high in the RBA's view, and leading economic indicators are still too weak.
     
  3. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    I doubt the small business stimulus is enough to fill the void of the big ticket mining investments no longer happening.

    If the RBA uses lagging indicators as you are suggesting, they will be behind the curve and it would be too late if after 6-12 months they find out the stimuli didn't work.
     
  4. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

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    Probably that's why I'm in two minds. I want to sell around 3 places but never know when the top is.
     
  5. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    The Smoke And Mirrors of Hockey's GDP Pipedream:

    [​IMG]

    The Blue Line below 0% tells it all.
     
  6. BayView

    BayView Member

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    Agree.

    The stimulus relies on folks being in a position to go out and spend the $20k, with the carrot being a quick return of some of it via the tax return.

    The Gubb are assuming that the vast majority are in a position to actually be able to do that - cashflow and gross profit wise.

    Plus, like the other stimulus package offered; the money will probably be spent in the wrong areas - the majority of small businesses will prolly go out and buy a new car, or use it for a tax deductible holiday with the kids to the Theme Parks, or an industry junket to New Caledonia, or somewhere. ;)

    My prediction is that it will be a fizzer for the business stimulation, and they will want to be looking at the figures very soon after the fin year ends.

    Personally, I would have preferred being given an interest free $20k loan for 10 years, to be used on predetermined items such as debt reduction, or plant and machinery, etc or something similar.

    That would definitely have helped me, because I won't be spending a cent, otherwise. I'm sure I have many mates in a similar position in that regard.
     
  7. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

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    Yea but its again a tough one. My folks' businesses in retail hospitality are going gangbusters. Never seen so much activity.

    Seems like the real drag is mining in WA and QLD.
     
  8. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Member

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    We wouldn't be any better under Labor.

    [​IMG]

    Ever since the mid 1980's Labor has been a party with entrenched high unemployment (while supposedly being a party for the working class). They don't believe in fiscally stimulating the economy either (as witnessed recently by Bowen backing down on the tax cuts, which would've put more money in people's pockets to spend in the economy).
     
  9. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

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    As always that's all very interesting.

    So my question is do we buy sell or hold property now in Syd or Melb metro?
     
  10. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Don't get me wrong. I am a Liberal voter. Both Federal and State. It's a Lesser Evil than the Labor and Greens Hell. But still an Evil nonetheless.

    "The national accounts included unexpected results for wage income which rose only 0.1 per cent in the quarter, despite employment growth of 0.7 per cent. Average wages per person fell by 0.5 per cent.

    One interpretation is that employment growth is being supported at a time of weak demand by people taking lower wages.

    It is also likely that there is a compositional shift. Baristas and waiters are being hired while high-paid miners are being fired. Mining employment has dropped by 50,000 in the last year, while employment in the category of “arts and recreation” has risen by 30,000."
     
  11. BayView

    BayView Member

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    Why would you sell?

    If you have received good CG, and the rent cashflow is holding it's own, and your serviceability is good, wouldn't you simply access the equity for another money making project or other?

    I wouldn't be buying in Sydney now- unless you are brave enough to attempt a short-term flip, and Melb might run out of steam later this year too.
     
  12. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    I'd stick them on the market at 10% more than what they are currently worth and hopefully the market is dumb enough to trade thru it. how much could you leave on the table?? at best another 10%?
     
  13. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Interesting thread .

    Along with MB , Keith is one of the forumites who knows his economics .

    ULMM , you've triggered some worthwhile responses .

    For me , I'm not sure if your back story is true or just BS , and obviously many of the other posters feel the same .

    One comment you made really undermined your credibility was your claim to never loose in the market ...... If that's the case , let's us know when you do set up your managed funds. Personally , everyone I know who makes money in the market has been up front about the times they've lost .

    Having said that , I've never lost on an investment property :D .... Yet .....;)

    Cliff
     
  14. C-mac

    C-mac Member

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    Arts and Entertainment category employment up 30%. That is an interesting finding. Assuming this employment category is separate to Travel and Tourism? Both categories are obviously linked.

    What I find interesting is this employment sector shift marries with data I read somewhere recently (note to self, Cam, you really need to start bookmarking site sources for later!) About patronage rates of domestic and international tourists being up at peaks (for some states like SA and TAS) at 5-ywar highs.

    Maybe this sector is entirely AUD-USD rate dependent? Whilst I have no idea which way our dollar will go from here, it seems that at the mid 70's(ish) that its at, tourism patronage is pulling its weight.

    If this continues, it could be quite sustainable for at least the next few years whilst our AUD continues to not trend up.

    If tourism, entertainment, arts, hospitality thrives, that might see a resurgence in holiday and coastal property (maybe?).

    That, and - Oh - S26 baby formula. But that is a whole other story (seriously, I wish I owned shares in this company!)
     
  15. JDP1

    JDP1 Member

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    you can.
    S-26 is made by Pfizer
    NYSE:pFE
     
  16. Befuddled

    Befuddled Member

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    or blackmores. boy have the gone through the roof in the last 12months
     
  17. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Instead of my (or your) back story which nobody has a way of verifying anyway, why don't you stick to the topic and refute my economics arguments? Or do you even understand basic economics?
     
  18. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    My understanding on economics is basic , hence I leave the heavy lifting to people who know more about economics that I do . Hasn't stopped me making money from property investing

    Back story is important here . The reality there are many many people on this forum ( including sim ) who have known me and what I've done since I joined the forum over 14 years ago

    You on the other hand , are an unknown quantity , so making a comment such as

    Significantly undermines your credibility . No one wins every day .

    It's makes it sound like it's coming from someone who is nieve , inexperienced and arrogant . Not a good platform on which to base investment decisions.

    though as I've said its triggered an informative debate.

    cliff
     
  19. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    that is debatable in itself. This thread is full of posts that make no sense or are just big noting oneself
     
  20. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

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    Last edited: 10th Jun, 2015