re: Property Prices: Recession Looming



From: Carlo Chiodo


There is a lag of about 6 months I believe from recession to property price decline. We are not in recession yet so too early to start thinking about it personallly. Watch out for the next quarterly economic results, if these are negative, then I think the R word will be on most peoples lips as this would meet the criteria for a recession (ie two consecutive qtrs of -ve growth).

Another thing to keep in mind is that this R should it happen would be in circumstances quite different frmo the usual, it would be occuring under deflation pressures, as such I dont believe proerty will be too adversely affected.

Whereas during a normal R pressures come from higher interest rates to bludgeon the property market, the pressures this time are going to come from items like retrenchments. I also think that the residential market will be hardly affected but the commercial market could be hard hit.

Having said this a report I received at work yesterday has some strong info suggesting that the next quarter will have positive economic growth, and I am basing my decisions on this outlook. If anyone would like a copy of this report, please email me at:

[email protected]


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Reply: 1
From: Rasputin .

Whilst you are correct that for technical Recession we need two -ve qtrs, if you ask most small business people, we are already in recession. But property has survived recession before and will again, just beware over exaggerated prices for next 6 - 12 months.

This is my opinion only ....
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Reply: 1.1
From: Anonymous

As an owner of a small business (decoration & soft furnishings) and hearing stories from rep's..we are in recession right now
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Reply: 1.1.1
From: Rolf Latham

If we listen to sales people only, we are almost always in recession.

See todays article by Ross Gittins in NSW Telegraph basicaaly says ~ small windows of data do not a recession make.

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From: Anonymous

The story from rep's relates to how many small businesses are being sued for not paying their bills, not related to their own sales figures..The number being sued has risen enormously
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