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From: Carlo Chiodo
Recession???
There is a lag of about 6 months I believe from recession to property price decline. We are not in recession yet so too early to start thinking about it personallly. Watch out for the next quarterly economic results, if these are negative, then I think the R word will be on most peoples lips as this would meet the criteria for a recession (ie two consecutive qtrs of -ve growth).
Another thing to keep in mind is that this R should it happen would be in circumstances quite different frmo the usual, it would be occuring under deflation pressures, as such I dont believe proerty will be too adversely affected.
Whereas during a normal R pressures come from higher interest rates to bludgeon the property market, the pressures this time are going to come from items like retrenchments. I also think that the residential market will be hardly affected but the commercial market could be hard hit.
Having said this a report I received at work yesterday has some strong info suggesting that the next quarter will have positive economic growth, and I am basing my decisions on this outlook. If anyone would like a copy of this report, please email me at:
Carlo_Chiodo@norwich-union.com.au
Cheers
Carlo
Recession???
There is a lag of about 6 months I believe from recession to property price decline. We are not in recession yet so too early to start thinking about it personallly. Watch out for the next quarterly economic results, if these are negative, then I think the R word will be on most peoples lips as this would meet the criteria for a recession (ie two consecutive qtrs of -ve growth).
Another thing to keep in mind is that this R should it happen would be in circumstances quite different frmo the usual, it would be occuring under deflation pressures, as such I dont believe proerty will be too adversely affected.
Whereas during a normal R pressures come from higher interest rates to bludgeon the property market, the pressures this time are going to come from items like retrenchments. I also think that the residential market will be hardly affected but the commercial market could be hard hit.
Having said this a report I received at work yesterday has some strong info suggesting that the next quarter will have positive economic growth, and I am basing my decisions on this outlook. If anyone would like a copy of this report, please email me at:
Carlo_Chiodo@norwich-union.com.au
Cheers
Carlo
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