Reply: 1.1.1.2
From: Ian Findlay
I'm sure I wont be the only one to point out that it costs a lot less to own
$100k of property (say $25k - $20 for deposit and 5k costs) than $100k of
shares ($100K). To use $100k of real money (or better still existing
equity), you could have $500k of property under control. If using exisiting
equity you can borrow the entire $105k and it only costs $7.5k (or about
$3.8k as interest is deductible, about $73 week). The $150 rent per week
gives about $75 net cash flow. Yes I know its much more complicated that
this with neg gearing, deductions, tax, etc but in essence the property
gives nice cash flow, costs almost nothing to maintain and has relativly
stable capital growth
In general propertry also tends to give lower but more stable growth than
shares which are more volatile.
The last decade has also been a period of unprecedented stock market growth
although this has significantly slowed in the last year or so, for example
most indices (Oz. US and UK) are at the same levels or less than a year ago.
Coupled with the opeing up of alternate markets for super moneys
(traditionally spent only on stocks) and a low inflation, low interest rate
economy (as per Greenspand reductions in US rates) this will likely continue
for the medium term I'd guess.
Both property and shares have advatages and disadvantages - you pays your
money, you take your choice. I've seen both property and shares plummet. I
used to own UK Railtrack shares which are now worth only a fraction of their
height (luckily I got out near the top) as well as London property which was
worth only about 40% of its value precrash. Its taken the property the last
5-6 years to recover to previous levels (AVERAGE house price in London is
about $550k, not this is average).
This all being said I would not wish to use either as a sole investment
strategy. It makes sense to diversify and this is exactly what I've done.
Hold both property and shares and you should be alright.
Ian
----- Original Message -----
From: "propertyforum Listmanager" <listmanager@bne003w.webcentral.com.au>
To: <Recipients of 'propertyforum' suppressed>
Sent: Sunday, June 03, 2001 10:08 AM
Subject: Re: reality check take 2
> From: "gary" <pointless@optusnet.com.au>
>
> >> The example shows that the average share cannot compete with property
> when it comes to income production. <<
>
> Let me enlighten you to the use of shares to generate income. Where to
> start.... Well I will restrict myself to shares I have owned.
>
> Lets begin with an average Aussie share - the Commonwealth bank. It
floated
> in 91 - maybe you heard of it, it was in all the papers. So, floated in 91
> for about $5.60, payable in instalments as I remember. Since then it has
> paid out $7.29 in dividends. You actually got your money back in about 9
> years - a tad less than the 50 to 100 you seem to think is average. Oh,
and
> of course you also got over 500% capital growth as well. What was the
> housing capital growth in Adelaide in the last decade? And it's not even
as
> if CBA is an especially well run bank. National Bank in 91 was trading at
> $5.00. Since then has paid out $8.15 in dividends and managed a 600% gain
as
> well. So lets a bit of a comparison here. You have a choice of your
Adelaide
> house for $100,000 in 91, renting $165 a week. Or $100,000 of NAB shares.
> That year you would have received $8500 in rent. Or a dividend cheque of
> $9000. (the dividend in 91 was .45c and you have bought 20,000 shares at
> $5.00) The house yield you give is pretty low (5.15%)- I guess you are
> talking about after expenses income. So even then, you are starting
behind.
> Leap forward 10 years and what have you got. I'm allowing that the value
of
> the house has doubled and the rent has also doubled in that time - make
you
> own assumptions. So you could receive $17000 in rent, or $24600 in
dividend.
> I know which one I would go for, especially seeing the dividend has
already
> had tax at the company rate paid. Not to mention the shares would now be
> worth $640,000 as opposed to $200,000 for the house. Higher income and
much
> higher capital growth - what more do you want??
>
> But banks aren't really considered high yield shares anyway. Lets try one
> that is. One of my favourites is AGL. For those who don't know it, it
sells
> gas. Boring as hell, but it makes a consistently good profit doing it. In
> 91, it was selling for $2.00. Since then, it has paid $3.04 in dividends.
> Want to work out the ROI on that one Adam? If you had bought $100,000 in
AGL
> shares in 91 then you would this year have received a dividend cheque of
> $37,000. Invest through a company and it would be tax free. And as a
bonus,
> a capital growth of 500% for the decade as well. Getting the message yet
> Adam?
>
> I could go on with others, but you can do your own research if you want
to.
> Check out the returns of the big aussie icons - Fosters, Woollies, BHP,
> Coles, Qantas, etc.
>
> Maybe being a property forum, I should look at some property stocks.
You've
> heard of listed property trusts? How about Westfield. Trading for about
> $1.80 in 91, and paid $1.79 in dividends. Capital growth of about 80% for
> the decade. Not stunning, certainly less than a decent residential house
> investment. Well, what about a developer like Leighton. Trading for about
> 1.00 in 91, paid $1.73 in dividends and now trading around $7.00.
>
> Now I know what you are saying - I've just picked the best ones. Well you
> are right, I'm trying to make a point. Add in the others that don't do so
> well and the total return goes down. This is where you need to be
ruthless.
> If a company goes bad, sell the sucker. This is the opposite of what
people
> are led to believe is the way to make money. They are told and believe
that
> you need to sell your shares to make money. So they see their CBA shares
> double in price and they sell out, then buy something else looking for
> another quick gain. Eventually they end up in something like Pacific
Dunlop
> and sit idly by as hopeless directors throw away their money. And then
> whinge about how bad the stock market is. You need to sell the dogs and
keep
> the good ones. And if a good one starts going bad, exercise your control
and
> sell.it. Immediately. Even the best investors will get it wrong
ometimes -
> the difference between then and other people is in their reaction to it.
> Exactly the same as in property. If you managed to get tenants who don't
pay
> the rent and start trashing your place - you wouldn't just ignore it would
> you? You'd get them out of there ASAP. It wouldn't make sell all your
> properties and get a job. It's a fact of investing life that things will
> occasionally go wrong.
>
> It was really pathetic to so many people (rightly) slam Eric for being
close
> minded and ignorant, then in the next sentence do exactly the same thing
> themselves. They are savvy property investors, who study the market, look
> for bargains, creatively use the system to their advantage. look outside
the
> norm; yet when the look at shares they revert back to being first-base
> investors, screaming 'It can't be done!', looking for as many reasons not
to
> invest as possible, assuming that the worse will always happen, and worst
of
> all, getting their information from people with little experience with
what
> they are talking about, and then believing them without doing their own
> research. Look beyond the populist opinion, unless of course you believe
> that the only way to make money in real estate is by negative gearing.
>
> Open your eyes and look around - you might just see something you like.
And
> if you don't, at least you will be better informed. There sure are shares
> that will take 100 years to pay you back, if ever (One.Tel anyone) - but
> there is no law that says you have to buy them.
>
> Gary
>
>
>
>
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