Regional NSW this cycle

[ali]

Hi Cliff, we are near nelson bay. High delinquency rates are true, and were due to the number of holiday (second) homes after the GFC, and affected the unit market only. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the housing market or the economy, otherwise.
Cheers, Ali
PS I enjoy reading your posts, Cliff, btw.

 

[knight123]

Where in Port Stephens

Hi Ali / All,

Where in port stephens would you suggest is a good spot for long term rentals (non-holiday accomm)?

How about Anna bay?

Cheers
Knight

 

[devo76]

Down Nowra way i havent seen a jump in prices yet but i have noticed a lot more sold signs.

I recently jump up a notch in the PPOR area into a price braket that was not selling quickly. I was looking at places that had come down quite a bit to meet the market and i still knocked em back. In the end the market almost turned on me.
i went to an auction and it went way above expected. two other sold the same week that i was looking at and then the one i actually wanted that fell through with another buyer ended up having several intested parties so i slapped the cash down within an hour.

now all the houses i was looking at are sold in the $500 up bracket.

Affordable areas have gone well and banks report anything in the $300 ish area are selling quick.
I dont think this has translated to price rises yet but its now in the local paper about the lack of new listings. This is true i still look to see how my purchase has held up( bad i know) and im suprised at the lack of new houses popping up for sale.

This all tells me we will probably see upwards movement in the statistics soon.
I dont kid myself but because we havent come off a low price base to start with and affordability was still an issue so any price rise will be modest i think.

 

[see_change]

There have been at least four sales in north arm cove in the last month that I know of so sales are increasing in number and we're moving into winter which is normally quiet .

Someone we know picked up a bargain with a low ball offer . 350 k for 2000m on the waterfront ( good usable waterfront ) with a boat ramp . Almost will be cash flow neutral and then it's has subdivision potential ...

Probably one of the best buys I've seen for a while.

Cliff

 

[ali]

Hi Ali / All,

Where in port stephens would you suggest is a good spot for long term rentals (non-holiday accomm)?

How about Anna bay?

Cheers
Knight

Hi Knight, Anna Bay is probably a good bet up here for capital gains as it is cheap, has some good cafes and food shops, a fantastic surf beach and the sand dunes. There is also a planetarium/ science education DA for Anna Bay, which has been approved. However, Landcom is trying to develop a massive subdivision in Anna Bay, which will increase supply a lot. Also, Anna Bay doesn't command the same rents as other more central areas of Port Stephens such as Nelson Bay, Corlette and Salamander Bay. It depends what you are after, I guess.

Modern 3-bed villas and duplexes with nice sized backyards in Salamander Bay and Corlette seem cheap at the moment, and they will appeal to young families and retirees, which seem to be the biggest demand segments up here.

Cheers, Ali

 

[C Stewart]

Ripple? It's going to be a crashing wave that washes over Port Macquarie. I'd be buying there. I'm thinking an apartment near the main beach - 3 bedder, ideally. One with a pool and all that stuff. Hey, I know one of them that is for sale...

What are your thoughts on PM? I'm looking a potentially purchasing somehting there. From a cap growth perspective I'm not too fussed, do you have any insights on vacancy rates / likely vacancy risk? The vancancy rate data seems pretty good over a long period, but I'd be interested in the perspective of someone that's has some actual skin in PM.

 

[depreciator]

I sold my flat there a few months ago. Finally. Ten years of ownership and no gain at all. Still, we used it a bit and had some good holidays there.
It's a good town, though. Great coastline, fantastic beaches, plenty of services, good food etc.
My flat was in a rental pool. The rentals were okay - it was a good building with a good manager. There are more being built up there, though. That will spread rentals more thinly.
It is a town where I could imagine retiring - but still keeping a Sydney base.

 

[Redom]

I sold my flat there a few months ago. Finally. Ten years of ownership and no gain at all. Still, we used it a bit and had some good holidays there.
It's a good town, though. Great coastline, fantastic beaches, plenty of services, good food etc.
My flat was in a rental pool. The rentals were okay - it was a good building with a good manager. There are more being built up there, though. That will spread rentals more thinly.
It is a town where I could imagine retiring - but still keeping a Sydney base.

Thanks for info. How long did it take to sell depreciator? Also curious for your motivations behind selling? Do you see the next ten years having similar returns to the last 10?

Cheers,
Redom

 

[depreciator]

It took forever to sell. Well over a year. We just stopped using it, so it made no sense to keep it - especially given I could see no reason to anticipate any growth.
Port is great, but it has no industry or mining or anything to drive it. And it's too far from Sydney to benefit from price growth there.
They are still building apartments, so the supply keeps increasing. We bought our place new, and the building was ten years old when we sold. There are a dozen newer buildings now, so that keeps a lid on value.
Scott

 

[knightm]

Yes I believe this will happen up and down the coast. To what degree and when is the question I would love to know too....

Scott's jesting about Port aside I believe the ripple is currently moving down the coast (and probably up too, I am just not tracking the other side of Sydney so much).

North Gong burbs have already run hard for 2+yrs, so you have missed bottom well and truly. Further south the ripple is in various stages of hitting, or having just started, or not quite having hit yet. It can be seen in the data and in population. I am seeing young families move down when they want to have a family and are priced out of Syd, then the boomer(just retired) grandparents follow the babies down and buy something nearby but closer to the water and pocket several hundred k for the super fund. Investors are also chasing the yield down. I don't see this stopping in the next 3-4 yrs.

 

[beachside]

How far south are you monitoring the ripple?

 

[knightm]

How far south are you monitoring the ripple?

Watching it from Wollongong down to Ulladulla currently - its been hitting north side of gong hard for last 2 yrs so thats well up off the bottom. The furthest north I go is Stanwell Park, Coalcliff, Austinmer etc, but most of my work is central and south Illawarra.

The ripple is manifesting differently in each town, the premium money is being more choosy but coming down further faster (this cycle) and the investor market chasing low entry points and yeild is coming heavy and hard but its not as far down the coast currently. Front strip Mollymook property is already up.

Past Ulladulla I wouldn't say its even registered. Batemans Bay real estate and down Broulee and Moruya are marching to the beat of their own drum with a few Canberra retirees etc but not sign of the ripple yet down there as far as I can see.