Rents to soar as housing crisis worsens

Rents to soar as housing crisis worsens

The Daily Telegraph
March 25, 2009 12:01am
New homes ... more new homes will be built in Adelaide than in Sydney this year, data shows / AP
More homes to be built in Adelaide, Melbourne
Sydney in lowest rate of growth in 50 years
Rents tipped to soar across the nation
MORE homes will be built in Adelaide than in Sydney in 2009, proof that the housing crisis engulfing the nation's biggest city is reaching alarming proportions.

Figures obtained by The Daily Telegraph show an estimated 7300 new dwellings will be built in Sydney this year, the lowest rate of growth in more than 50 years and roughly a third of the homes built in 2003.

The bleak projections are in stark contrast to Melbourne, where an estimated 23,000 new dwellings will be built this year.

Across the border in Adelaide - a city boasting a population one quarter of the size of Sydney - about 7500 new homes are scheduled, while Brisbane expects 13,450 new homes to be built.

The outlook gives credence to economists' fears that Sydney rents will shoot up a further 12 per cent in 2009, on top of last year's 8 per cent rise. Such a rise will take the average rent for a three-bedroom house over $400 a week.

Bill With Sydney's population expected to rise by close to 23,000 this year and rental vacancies already running at a mere 1.1 per cent, the situation is reaching crisis point, property analysts told The Daily Telegraph yesterday.

BIS Shrapnel property research group economist Jason Anderson said the data proved Sydney's crippled housing industry could create an unprecedented divide between the haves and the have-nots, with the Federal Government's first homebuyers grant - $21,000 in funding available for new dwellings - failing to address the city's inherent need for medium to high-density developments.

"Sydney is much more dependent on medium-to-high density development and that has dried up because of funding issues," he said.

"Combined with the population growth, I can't see how there is going to be anything other than extreme pressure in the rental market."

BIS Shrapnel's figures were backed up by the Property Council of Australia yesterday, which called for the State Government to urgently sort out its housing framework to make it easier for investors. NSW executive director Ken Morrison said other state capitals had far better planning processes for their housing industries.

"The Rees Government needs a really strong focus on getting the supply framework for housing sorted out," he said. "State agency approvals, rezoning processes and infrastructure facilitation ... they are big problems in NSW."

The National Housing Supply Council report out earlier this month estimated an 85,000 dwelling shortage in June 2008. That gap is tipped to grow to 203,000 by 2013.
 
I don't know what all the excitement is about. This is just NORMAL for this part of the real estate cycle. We are now entering that part of the cycle where it is cheaper to buy than rent. People then start to buy again and the beginning of the cycle starts all over again. Traditionally, Sydney has been the bolier-room of real estate in Australia and it will be no different this time. Last boom was in 2003 in Sydney. Now it is 2009 - a whole 6 years of slightly falling, flat, slightly rising suff and now we enter the gentle rising for approx 1 - 2 years before we are into the crazy boom stuff again....bring it on!
 
Traditionally, Sydney has been the bolier-room of real estate in Australia and it will be no different this time.

it's dangerous to start a sentence with 'traditionally' at the moment! also hasn't Melb taken over as the new leading Australian city? With financials devestated for years to come it is hard to see where the flame will come from to heat the boiler.
 
it's dangerous to start a sentence with 'traditionally' at the moment! also hasn't Melb taken over as the new leading Australian city? With financials devestated for years to come it is hard to see where the flame will come from to heat the boiler.

The big four are enjoying their highest margins and lowest competition since deregulation... and their customers the lowest IRs - so I wouldn't call the end to financials just yet!

IMO there is a lot of upside to rents yet...
 
it's dangerous to start a sentence with 'traditionally' at the moment!
I'm a risk taker :)

also hasn't Melb taken over as the new leading Australian city?
Leading in what?

With financials devestated for years to come it is hard to see where the flame will come from to heat the boiler.
It is always hard to see something when you are in the thick of it. Hindsight is easier to see with :). I'm not convinced that this economic cycle is different than any other we have had in the past. We have these 7 - 10 or 12 year RE cycles and the 80 year recession / depression cycle.....it all seems to be going to plan :p so far.
 
The big four are enjoying their highest margins and lowest competition since deregulation... and their customers the lowest IRs - so I wouldn't call the end to financials just yet!

IMO there is a lot of upside to rents yet...

that's the big 4, how about the likes of MacBank, allco, b&b....?
 
Cold weather?
Ahem.....that is cruel sparky.

Many times I have stepped out of the domestic terminal at Melbourne airport to be greeted by drizzle and wind and 13 deg C after just stepping into a plane in Sydney where it was a balmy 28 deg C.
However, they had nearly 2 weeks of 40 deg C and bushfires recently as you'd know. They can keep that too :)

I do like Melbourne though. :p especially the restaruants in Pahran ;)
 
Sorry I forgot they do have a few weeks around Feb/March when they can leave the overcoats at home! LOL

I lived there for a couple of years when I came over from England and couldn't believe I had to scrape ice off the car in the winter - thought I'd left that behind when I emigrated!
 
Rents to soar as housing crisis worsens

Figures obtained by The Daily Telegraph show an estimated 7300 new dwellings will be built in Sydney this year, the lowest rate of growth in more than 50 years and roughly a third of the homes built in 2003.

Bill With Sydney's population expected to rise by close to 23,000 this year and rental vacancies already running at a mere 1.1 per cent, the situation is reaching crisis point, property analysts told The Daily Telegraph yesterday.

.


I am surprised at the 23,000 figure for Sydneys population growth. I'd have thought it would be way higher than that. That is amazingly low.

Considering Australia's massive immigration program, and considering a hell of a lot of the new immigrants head for Sydney, there must be one hell of a lot of residents getting out of the place.

Certainly is a lot of ex Sydneyites ending up in my part of the world on a few acres and loving it.

See ya's.
 
Yeah...that sounds low...as it was around 50k in recent time.

I hear most migrants are heading to Melbourne....it was 41k now it is more like 60k.

Brissie I believe gets something like 27k (similar to reported Sydney figure).

Perth another 17k and Adelaide has jumped from something like 4k to 11k (mostly Brits).

I am surprised at the 23,000 figure for Sydneys population growth. I'd have thought it would be way higher than that. That is amazingly low.

Considering Australia's massive immigration program, and considering a hell of a lot of the new immigrants head for Sydney, there must be one hell of a lot of residents getting out of the place.

Certainly is a lot of ex Sydneyites ending up in my part of the world on a few acres and loving it.

See ya's.
 
So whats going on?

Perhaps less are coming to Sydney due to the lack of properties. But Australia's population grew by 390,000 last year. With a fertility rate of just 1.8%, we are not even keeping up ourselves, so all the increase is immigration..?? What am I missing here..?? I must have something wrong?

Surely Sydney would be getting a third of the immigrants? That's what I'd have guessed. I'd love to know how many immigrants are coming to Sydney, because if it's a lot, and if it means a lot of established Sydneyites are getting out, it has big implications?

Immigrants from Asia and the Middle East and Africa would be used to high levels of people per house, so maybe the housing shortage is not as big as some would think?


What have I done wrong here? The figures in that article are wrong, surely?


See ya's.
 
Perhaps less are coming to Sydney due to the lack of properties.

I was reading recently that there was cheap land available around Werribee (and other fringe areas of Melb) which was attracting FHBs. (There is none around Syd) Maybe people are going where the land is and will chase the job later? I can't see how that would put any downward pressure on Syd rents though.

I'm with TC. I believe the collapse of Finance and Banking (I don't mean retail banking) will see the top-end continue to fall and a collapse of social fabric simply making the whole city less attractive to any who don't wish to join minority gangs.

As they say in share recommendations: "Better value elsewhere!"
 
Surely Sydney would be getting a third of the immigrants?
According to ABS last years NSW population increase was 92,000, 105,000 in QLD & 97,000 in Vic - & remaining 90,000 or so to the rest of Oz.

I'd love to know how many immigrants are coming to Sydney, because if it's a lot, and if it means a lot of established Sydneyites are getting out, it has big implications?
The ABS figures for interstate migration, arrivals/departures, birth/death rates, immigration rates, projected populations for each state (& much, much more) are buried in here.

What have I done wrong here? The figures in that article are wrong, surely?
Maybe the 23,000 increase refers to the inner circle of Sydney ?..... regardless it appears to be misleading.

I'm with TC. I believe the collapse of Finance and Banking (I don't mean retail banking) will see the top-end continue to fall and a collapse of social fabric simply making the whole city less attractive to any who don't wish to join minority gangs.
Any idea how much of the Sydney population is employed in non-retail banking & finance ? And what percentage of those will lose their jobs ?
 
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Last years NSW population increase was 92,000, 105,000 in QLD & 97,000 in Vic - & remaining 90,000 or so to the rest of Oz.

?


The important figure here is the 23,000 for Sydney. If this is correct it means rural NSW and just about everywhere else is growing much quicker than Sydney, despite most immigrants going to the big smoke.

Doesn't surprise me though. Regional areas have shown great growth recently.



Why is there a housing shortage in Sydney?

Did land get too expensive?
Were there not enough builders in the bubble?
Are developers just plain dumb?
Are developers too financially stretched?
Are Sydneyites too financially stretched?
Maybe the market is really correct afterall, is smarter than we think, and is anticipating the falling demand just like the share market anticipated the GFC, but as I've said before, I have a brother in Sydney and the shortage is real just at this moment.

It doesn't appear to be because of population growth if the 23,000 figure is correct.


See ya's.
 
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