Residex Growth Accuracy and any Sydney Tips

[Seymour]

I'm a newbie on here so excuse me if this has been asked before (I have searched). I've just purchased the Residex Top 100 growth report for Sydney and metropolitan NSW. I notice that they come to their conclusions solely on statistical analysis of the last 27 years. This doesn't seem like a huge time interval to be sampling to me.

Does anyone have experience with these reports and any feelings about their accuracy. Obviously the predictions need to be considered along side other factors - especially with the economy tanking.

What are people's thoughts on where is good to buy? We have about 800 grand to spend and want somewhere with a reasonable cash flow.Our aim is to buy and hold. Something we can depreciate would also be good.

The 2010, 2011 postcodes we know very well and areas such as Potts Point seem like they can't be anything other than a good buy given their proximity to the city (and how much similar locations cost in cities like London, New York and Paris). Scarcity is also a major bonus in such areas.

Studio's in these areas give very good returns but everyone seems quite down on studios. Is that just due to financing issues?

Otherwise, Residex suggests a house in suburban Sydney seems like it might give good growth - although many of the areas they identify seem like they're about to be hammered by the economy (unemployment etc).

Any thoughts gratefully received!

regards,

 

[House_Keeper]

I purchased a residex report around 2001 about a brisbane suburb and their predictions where way of the mark. They did not foresee the boom in brisbane.

I also remember than back in 2004-2005, they were predicting many Sydney suburb to grow by 8 to 10 % per year over the next 5 to 10 years. I don't know if they are still predicting that.

You can only do so much with statistics. Stats look into the past. You need to look into the future.

I reckon you would be better know what is really hapening in a particular suburb, like new infrastructure, shops, new developments, renovations, people moving into the area, 'typical' buyer, tenant demand, ...

Detailed local knowledge would be much more useful than 'predictions' from vague stats.

Cheers,

 

[Propertunity]

I notice that they come to their conclusions solely on statistical analysis of the last 27 years. This doesn't seem like a huge time interval to be sampling to me.

It is enough IMO. Past results are no guarantee of future growth anyway - it is just part of the picture.

Does anyone have experience with these reports and any feelings about their accuracy.

Their guess is as good as anybody elses. Not always right but have a reasonable track record. Use it with all the other DD tools you use to form your own view.

What are people's thoughts on where is good to buy? We have about 800 grand to spend and want somewhere with a reasonable cash flow.Our aim is to buy and hold. Something we can depreciate would also be good.

You have a lot to choose from. One big property or a few little ones scattered around.

The 2010, 2011 postcodes we know very well and areas such as Potts Point seem like they can't be anything other than a good buy given their proximity to the city (and how much similar locations cost in cities like London, New York and Paris). Scarcity is also a major bonus in such areas.

Yes agreed

Studio's in these areas give very good returns but everyone seems quite down on studios. Is that just due to financing issues?

Yes

Otherwise, Residex suggests a house in suburban Sydney seems like it might give good growth - although many of the areas they identify seem like they're about to be hammered by the economy (unemployment etc).

Yes, you have to form a view on how hammered and for how long before a recovery. You could take the view that sentiment is down therefore you can get a bargain. Also at $800K you are not competeing with FHB's. This is a good thing.