Roy Morgan: Unemployment at record high 4Q14

[Freckle]

Roy Morgan tend to have a much better handle on employment/unemployment than official ABS stats would have us believe.

If you look at the trend since 08 things in the employment sector have been steadily deteriorating even as AU supposedly saw some of its greatest boom years. Worse is the youth unemployment rate not shown here. This isn't the makings of a healthy economy nor one that could weather another downturn as well as the last.

I suspect we are going to see this trend accelerate over the next 6 months.



The findings are sobering, and although there is a significant gap with the official (albeit very volatile) ABS figures, the trend is self-evident:

• 1,402,000 Australians are looking for work (10.9% of the workforce, down 9,000 since December 2013);
• 1,246,000 Australians are under-employed (working part-time and looking for more hours ? 9.7%, up 154,000 since December 2013).
• 2,648,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed ? a new record high (20.6% of the workforce, up 145,000 since December 2013);
• After this month?s rise the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.9% is now a substantial 4.6% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for November 2014 (6.3%).

 

[Redom]

Roy Morgan tend to have a much better handle on employment/unemployment than official ABS stats would have us believe.

If you look at the trend since 08 things in the employment sector have been steadily deteriorating even as AU supposedly saw some of its greatest boom years. Worse is the youth unemployment rate not shown here. This isn't the makings of a healthy economy nor one that could weather another downturn as well as the last.

I suspect we are going to see this trend accelerate over the next 6 months.



The findings are sobering, and although there is a significant gap with the official (albeit very volatile) ABS figures, the trend is self-evident:

• 1,402,000 Australians are looking for work (10.9% of the workforce, down 9,000 since December 2013);
• 1,246,000 Australians are under-employed (working part-time and looking for more hours ? 9.7%, up 154,000 since December 2013).
• 2,648,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed ? a new record high (20.6% of the workforce, up 145,000 since December 2013);
• After this month?s rise the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate of 10.9% is now a substantial 4.6% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for November 2014 (6.3%).

Thanks for sharing Freckle - some soft numbers there. Some of this is expected to happen and forecasted/budgeted for. With a gradual improvement in 2016 and beyond..

 

[Freckle]

With a gradual improvement in 2016 and beyond..

Wishful thinking at best. Watch crashing oil prices crush the AU energy sector. Another cliff for CAPEX to fall off just when it wasn't looking too bad. WA and QLD will be in a world of hurt by the end of 2015 is my guess.

 

[Biz]

Who says these figures are more accurate and even if they are who cares? If we have been using the ABS figures as a benchmark these ones are redundant if we are just looking at % increases.

 

[Freckle]

Who says these figures are more accurate and even if they are who cares? If we have been using the ABS figures as a benchmark these ones are redundant if we are just looking at % increases.

RM provides a broader and deeper analysis of employment data than ABS stats. I would use neither individually but both to confirm (given their limitations and models) any assumptions I might have.

If you don't care and choose to use a single source for your prefered knowledge then you show little understanding and knowledge of informational issues.

 

[Biz]

RM provides a broader and deeper analysis of employment data than ABS stats.

Where is the proof of this?

 

[Lord Shanghai]

The scaremongering title of this thread suggests that we have "record high" unemployment. The OP is being mendacious (not to mention incorrect) and has an agenda of his own.

Anyone who has lived throughthe 70s, 80s and 90s will remember how 6% (or higher) unemployment was the norm, not the exception. So much for "record high"/.

 

[datto]

ASX was up last week. So too all ords. Property prices still strong. Looks like 2015 will be another great year. Any psychos out there beg to differ? lol. Sorry, not you freckle lol. I'm itching for a margin loan and whack it in top gear.

 

[kamchatsky]

ASX was up last week. So too all ords. Property prices still strong. Looks like 2015 will be another great year. Any psychos out there beg to differ? lol. Sorry, not you freckle lol. I'm itching for a margin loan and whack it in top gear.

Margin Loans? That is for sissies. Start with CFDs and then trade with Options ....

For Anyone Reading This: Please don't take what I said above as advise. You will lose money so quick doing above .....

 

[willair]

WA and QLD will be in a world of hurt by the end of 2015 is my guess.

Yes it could be like that "IF" people vote Labor back in in QLD in a few weeks time,all bar environmental degradation,new contraceptive methods forced on the unemployed,or famine..

 

[willair]

Margin Loans? That is for sissies. Start with CFDs and then trade with Options ....
.....

Problem with that is ,you only ever hear about the insider few that make money,not the ones that has lost everything and end up on a park bench with 2 plastic bags with everything they own inside the bags and a bottle of 2 dollar vino and a blank look on their face,..

 

[kamchatsky]

Problem with that is ,you only ever hear about the insider few that make money,not the ones that has lost everything and end up on a park bench with 2 plastic bags with everything they own inside the bags and a bottle of 2 dollar vino and a blank look on their face,..

You are absolutely correct on this one. Usually people share stories of making money rather than losing money. I played with CFDs a while back and found it is definitely not for me. You really need to look at the market all the time, even with stop loss in place (unless Guaranteed SL which is expensive), even on a market that is moving sideways. Most is really luck unless you are on your computer all the time and timed the waves of buying and selling to perfection ....

 

[Freckle]

The scaremongering title of this thread suggests that we have "record high" unemployment. The OP is being mendacious (not to mention incorrect) and has an agenda of his own.

Anyone who has lived throughthe 70s, 80s and 90s will remember how 6% (or higher) unemployment was the norm, not the exception. So much for "record high"/.

I neglected to provide the reference da!

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/01/roy-morgan-unemployment-at-record-high/

I tend to take all data with a grain of salt. Everyone has an agenda. The govt invariably understates the data in this area and has strong incentives to model unemployment down. However, that's not the real issue or the accuracy of the numbers. Data from multiple sources is telling the same story and that is that employment utilisation is trending down and has for some time.

That's a strong indicator that the economy is facing ever increasing headwinds. The problem with that is that looking out to the next five years or more there is absolutely nothing that could bring the sunshine back. We are (have for a while) seeing negative feedback loops in local and global economies. The oil shock is about to ratchet up the pressure by a few magnitudes more.

 

[Freckle]

Yes it could be like that "IF" people vote Labor back in in QLD in a few weeks time,all bar environmental degradation,new contraceptive methods forced on the unemployed,or famine..

It won't matter. There isn't a political party worth 2 bob at the moment and if there was they'd have their work cut out trying to sort the current mess out.

 

[Freckle]

Margin Loans? That is for sissies. Start with CFDs and then trade with Options ....

The trouble with these/those is only the insiders make money. If you're on the outside you need big positions and big leverage but that's like gambling blindfolded and not knowing what the stakes are.

Derivatives were invented by the Devil I'm sure of it.

 

[Freckle]

Where is the proof of this?

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5863-abs-data-disaster-october-2014-201410100446

...there's more out there from other sources but you can do your own legwork... hand holding's not my thing.

 

[Biz]

Lol

The best you can come up with to refute the abs data is a link from the site peddling their own stats?

I think you need to get your hand off something else.

 

[datto]

Here she is. Some good news:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-12/anz-job-ads-rise-for-seventh-month/6012224

 

[Biz]

Here she is. Some good news:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-12/anz-job-ads-rise-for-seventh-month/6012224

Liar! Roy Morgan or GTFO!

 

[Freckle]

Lol

The best you can come up with to refute the abs data is a link from the site peddling their own stats?

I think you need to get your hand off something else.

You obviously didn't read the whole page or if you did you failed to understand it. RM describes their system and compares it to the limitations of ABS's model. They make a case for better data collection from the ABS which is not unreasonable.

2014 ABS were put on the mat publicly for shoddy data collection and compilation. With little effort you should be able to find out more about it.

Like I said there's other resources out there but I'm not in to hand holding.

Believe what you will but so far you're just coming off as ignorant and arrogant.