Royal Bank of Scotland issues global stock and credit alert

i'm still not worried.

and this says it all

Quote:
Originally Posted by nonrecourse
my call on the asx reaching 2200 in October 2009 is looking a tad conservative don't you think with all the bad news

who cares? if you think it will head that way the take a spread of a hedged CFD position and profit from it! let your emini positions run to the downside!

do you just enjoy making dire predictions and rubbing it in the face of those that have positions in it?

because you're coming across very spiteful now. you keep pulling tidbits from here, poofteenths from there, assembling it into some random junk pile of information and calling it "reason".

2200 on the ASX might be possible. just because people don't agree with you doesn't make them a


Quote:
sock puppy

......?????

why does everyone have to agree with your ramblings? you keep bagging people for "not seeing the light", and yet you refuse to listen to reason from the other side.

i am so done wasting bandwidth with this trogoldyte.
__________________

My reply;

Yet again you talk about taking a spread of a hedged CDF position and make a profit from it.:confused: I think we should rename you black and blue because like a punch drunk boxer you keep climbing back into the ring to recieve another king hit from Mr Market.

Your vitriole about me rubbing your face it it is a bit rich. THIS IS A PROPERTY
INVESTORS SITE not a gambling casino. Like so many punters you confuse investing with share trading, puts, calls, options, hedges, CDF's all all the other carpet bagger speculative games that are NOT PROPERTY INVESTING.

My argument that at the moment if you are a property investor and you want to remain in the property investing business you need to protect your investment and that means getting your gearing down to 30%.

If you treat property investing like "share trading" (you note I didn't confuse it with investing) then Mr Market is going to come around and beat you to a pulp because Mr Market is not rational at the moment.

The real property investors are standing at the edge of the ring waiting until Mr Market comes to its senses. In the mean time the real investors are reviewing their leases, refinning their trust structures to ensure their assets are segregated so that if one or more property is at risk then their entire property portfolio is not at risk.

The lesson of this soft depression is similar to the last great depression. Never borrow funds to purchase shares using your equity in property and never ever purchase shares that then leave you exposed to a margin call.

An entire new generation is being turned off the share market because of speculation. This is a real shame because the share market is vital for businesses to grow. Unfortunately it is populated by spiv's, speculators and shake down artists:(
 
scare tactics.

put all your cash in the bank so we can lend it out at 20x and charge 19% internationally.

what a crock.

please! you can stash it under your bed....but don't go dissing an article with credibility. RBS was the largest bank in Europe. It's about to be nationalized. I used to work for them.
 
Some people just cant get their head out of the sand. They are the ones that will be burnt and possibly & unfortunately turned off investing for a long time.

The Dow tanked 3.5% overnight, its been down all week. I called a new downward trend on the Dow at the beginning of last week. There is absolutely NO confidence over there.

If people are still blind optimists with all the evidence in front of them, then its logical to think they are never pessimistic about the market(s) and don't take precautions accordingly. If you guys aren't nervously looking over your shoulder now, when do you?

I think there are a lot more bears on this forum than is publicly known, they keep quiet for obvious reasons. Made to feel like an idiot by the constant put downs of the blue sky, blind optimists.
 
Blue Card posted this on 16.07.2008



I think Mary has her umbrella up bluey, I'd be worried;)
The dow has had another hammering overnight,looks like the Aussie Market is heading below the 3000 mark a lot quicker then most professional forcasters think, even with all the mental impediment from the media-SOAP BOX coin tossers,i will post a email from Dr Mark Faber that someone sent me overnight from NY in a few days time if he is right shorterm then a few people are going to make a killing in the equities markets over the next 12 weeks..imho..willair..

http://www.nyse.com/
 
I reckon we'll be below 3000 within a few weeks. Then its only 800 points to Nonrecourse' BIG call of a 2200 All Ords. Not far at all and should happen well before his prediction of October 09.

Europe is a basket case and we've yet to fully see the fallout from there.

Who would have thought we could have gone from a high of nearly 7000 in Nov. 07 to almost 3200 in Feb 09. Inconceivable!

And who would doubt that property prices could fall by half that amount (as a %)?

Here's a question:

With the stock market as leading indicator of economy and the property market a lagging one. What do the blind optimists think will happen to the property market in the next year. (disregarding government intervention and disregarding record property price to wages multiples and all time high debt levels). Its looking great huh. :D



The dow has had another hammering overnight,looks like the Aussie Market is heading below the 3000 mark a lot quicker then most professional forcasters think,
 
hi evan
funny question but the answer is yes.
1 interest rates are low they could go a point or two more but thats fine as rates wil be lower.
2 there is alot of stock around taht is currently positive and as long as you buy into a market taht there is demand for the stock thats fine by me.
3 yes value have gone back in some places but if you don't have to sell then your fine on my ledger.
4as rates go down and as problems occur thats the time to buy not to sell
yes sell if the sale price is higher then is or was in the market and look at what your selling compared to what your buying
if you can get into a niche ie you are selling at a high or high for taht property and youa re buying for a low in another area and the fundermentals are right then why not.
people seem to think that because you are an investor taht you are in a big way into shares and the all ords is a problem not for me its not don't even look at it
the us sing and euro is alot more important to me.
and for that matter bos.
with nr rudd quarantee there are not many banks in aust that are on the ropes because of cash flow as those deposits give a big kick along
I would be a bit more worried in se qld and the gold coast but again not if you don't have to sell just ride out the wave.
I think that a few here think that the world is going to fall in and everyone should sell up and move to vanuatu.
I am not sure if I am a bear I would say more like a prospector and because gold tanks or for that matter alumin or bauxite drop thru the floor does not mean you stop looking.
looking over my shoulder is a interesting question in itself.
I would be looking over my shoulder if I new what I am looking for.
I would rarther look forward and work thru the deals on my table and work out how to do them.
the people behind me as in any race have to catch up.
also just a little bit of a observation I learnt as a young child if you look backward while walking forwards you ahve a 90% increase chance of walking into a tree or a pole
so I try not to do it
 
so, NR can spout crap about the ASX (THE STOCKMARKET) falling to 2200 like it's some huge, awful thing and i suggest that you trade in the direction of the trend - and i'm an evil specufestor with no relevance to a property forum ....

even though YOU brought up the ASX prediction in the first place?

i just posted an alternative argument about how to make money from a falling market, but it has no relevance in a topic about the ASX?

how exactly?

my point is, you make money ONE WAY (the stockmarket) to offset your losses in ANOTHER WAY (falling property prices / increased holding costs / lack of rental income etc).

is that light bulb on yet?

it's called HEDGING - and it works across a multitude of sectors.

the RBS have the same standing with me as Citigroup - nada. nix. nothing. nope. They are speculators that have been burned bad, and now expect taxpayers to hep them out - and ihave no sympathy for them, regardless if Scotland lose face against the "southies" because of it.

i sold out of the property game in Nov 07 (my last IP) and Jan 08 (my PPOR) to take advantage of buying back into falling land prices and great building deals to secure a great piece of land close to all amens less than 200m from the beach over 20m above 0.0 AHD.

i am a property investor first and foremost. i design grouped dwelling sites in WA for large, urban infill projects for private and public clientelle. i see bargains come across my desk every day, and i wait, and wait and wait and wait until i have a good deposit to buy.

property moves like the QE2 - slow and steady. the sharemarket doesn't. so rather than wait 10 years to accumulate a deposit in equity, i trade to pay down my deductible debt and take advantage of the wonderful ponzi scheme avalable to me, by increasing my deductible debt again to buy more.

so excuse me if i like to HEDGE. excuse me if i like to source alternative income. excuse me if i'm a more active share trader than i am a property investor - but then, maybe that's because i recognise prices WILL fall and am waiting, or a decent deal hasn't come across me that fits my purchasing criteria as yet.

and why the fudge am i even defending myself againt you? what kind of credibility do you have? oh that's right, you've STILL FAILED TO MENTION IT.

i've said it before, and i'll say it again - back in your box, jack.
 
I have constantly said i have no idea where the market indexes will move because there are too many factors involved. However having said that, what proportion of the ASX weightings is made up of the top 10 stocks? From memory it used to be something like 50 or 60% of the index. So movements in the top 10 stocks will have significant influence on the movement of the index itself.

However i have also stressed that this is going to be a stock pickers market. Just because the index moves in a certain direction, doesnt mean all shares move in that direction.

Touch wood i am still up 20% from the November lows, whether this holds, goes up or goes down i have no idea (as in the short term market sentiment plays a big part), but what i do know is that over the longer term, companies will be revalued according to their fundamentals.
 
My response in blue

I have constantly said i have no idea where the market indexes will move because there are too many factors involved.

The prevailing trend is down. That might give you a clue ;).

However having said that, what proportion of the ASX weightings is made up of the top 10 stocks? From memory it used to be something like 50 or 60% of the index. So movements in the top 10 stocks will have significant influence on the movement of the index itself.

That's why they have indexes. In this case, the ASX 200.


However i have also stressed that this is going to be a stock pickers market. Just because the index moves in a certain direction, doesnt mean all shares move in that direction.

That applies in any market at any time and when isn't it a stockpickers market?

Touch wood i am still up 20% from the November lows, whether this holds, goes up or goes down i have no idea (as in the short term market sentiment plays a big part), but what i do know is that over the longer term, companies will be revalued according to their fundamentals.

The whole market is always determined by sentiment but its real events that determine that sentiment.
 
I reckon we'll be below 3000 within a few weeks. Then its only 800 points to Nonrecourse' BIG call of a 2200 All Ords. Not far at all and should happen well before his prediction of October 09.

Europe is a basket case and we've yet to fully see the fallout from there.

Who would have thought we could have gone from a high of nearly 7000 in Nov. 07 to almost 3200 in Feb 09. Inconceivable!

And who would doubt that property prices could fall by half that amount (as a %)?

Here's a question:

With the stock market as leading indicator of economy and the property market a lagging one. What do the blind optimists think will happen to the property market in the next year. (disregarding government intervention and disregarding record property price to wages multiples and all time high debt levels). Its looking great huh. :D
Yes it may go that way,not going to worry me if it does just bang up the rents,,i always thought that the ASX would go into the 7000's and when you look in dollar terms some people that bought into those high levels
would now be behind the eight ball in a big way,most people i know are.
willair..
 
Which is the 'half full' part?

i dunno - you tell me.

180px-Glass-of-water.jpg
 
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