seaford vic gaining?

[Peter Parker]

d) As for the beaches, they are not surf beaches, but rather a bay. I could imagine people from Sydney and the Gold Coast laughing about what Melbourne people call beaches. It's better to describe it as a bay, rather than a beach, as it's nearly impossible to surf on it.

I'll make an assumption here - people who prefer to surf tend to be younger whereas people who prefer calm waters tend to be older.

With an ageing population it follows that the proportion of people who prefer calm waters will increase over time, whereas the proportion who prefer surf beaches will decline.

Is it not possible then that calm waters could well be increasingly sought after, and hence assist capital growth?

 

[bigbucks]

i think the areas reputation has improved over time.

i think the prices in the Seaford area have shown growth being near the bay is held in high regard by purchasers.

Not everyone puts a premium to travel to melbourne, however the trains are packed and carparks full at the seaford kananook and frankston stations each week day morning.

i can tell you prices in Box hill Burwood was not much different to Seafords price 10 years ago now its a huge price gap.
I would say the higher the income level in the area the higher the house prices.

i would say if everyones income dropped or unemployment got higher prices will drop as they have done in the rest of the world.

just think what would happen if prices dropped to 1997 levels as they have done in some parts of the USA.

 

[bigbucks]

i have also noticed a change in the rental market i drove past a property in seaford last week open for inspection and were about 20 people lined up outside.

i have spoken to a few people who have sold up and now looking to rent and they confirm the above may be happening more often.

 

[bigbucks]

Can anyone explain how 5 r/e agents offices can sustain them selfs in the Seaford napean hwy area?

 

[bigbucks]

interesting to know, i have looked at a property in Seaford asking 570k however most recent rates certificate issued 19/7/2010 from council reads capital improved value 450k prescribed date 1/1/2010 first used 1/7/2010 ?

is council valuation 450k done 1/1/2010 way of the mark? or have prices grown in this case 120k since then?

 

[Peter Parker]

Can anyone explain how 5 r/e agents offices can sustain them selfs in the Seaford napean hwy area?

SALES

Say suburb population is 10 000 with 3000 homes.

Average home is sold once every 5 - 10 years.

That's 300 - 600 homes per year.

2.5% commission on $400k house = $10k.

Annual revenue is between approx $3 and 6 million.

Which can support 50 people earning $60 and 120k pa income on sales.

ie 10 people per agency, but in practice a bit less to profit the owners.

-----------------

RENTAL MANAGEMENT

Of those 3000 homes, 1000 might be rentals.

Average rent = $250pw or $12k pa

Average agent take = 8% of 12k ie $1k per house per year

Total income from rental managment = $1m.

Which can support 10 property managers who cost $100k pa to employ (including overheads)

ie 2 PMs per agency.

 

[pickle pickle]

Having a property in Frankston North, I would love the median house price of the area to be on par with Melbourne.

Yes there are advantages of being near calm water rather than a surf beach, however due to the fact that it's so far away from the CBD, I can't see the median price being equal to the rest of Melbourne (except the areas really close to the bay IE. Seaford on one side of Freeway).

I like the Frankston area. However I'm realistic about our investment. I can see why Narree Warren maybe preferable to Frankston.

 

[pickle pickle]

interesting to know, i have looked at a property in Seaford asking 570k however most recent rates certificate issued 19/7/2010 from council reads capital improved value 450k prescribed date 1/1/2010 first used 1/7/2010 ?

is council valuation 450k done 1/1/2010 way of the mark? or have prices grown in this case 120k since then?

Give me a link to the property and I'll let you know. However from the info you have given and my quick reasearch, the vendors are dreaming.

 

[Nick]

I disagree with a few of your points you make here pickle pickle:

a) Assuming there is little traffic it takes around an hour to drive to the city.

My partner took the nepean hwy to city this morning in 35 minutes (she drives on or slower than the speed limit). Yes sunday morning the roads are empty but provided its not peak either eastlink or nepean will get you to the cbd under 40 mins from seaford. Even so there is no need to travel to Melbourne for necessities, Seaford and Frankston have all the services you need. (other than perhaps a workplace)

c) Besides maybe Pakenham, suburbs that are near a train station that runs on a major line, it takes the longest to the city.

Agree to an extent - train line was only %65 ontime for the last month which is the worst in Melb. Frankston line has been shocking since Metro took over but was relatively good under Connex. We definitely need a better express service (express from Mordialloc?) and not to have the Siemans trains used on express runs.

d) As for the beaches, they are not surf beaches, but rather a bay. I could imagine people from Sydney and the Gold Coast laughing about what Melbourne people call beaches. It's better to describe it as a bay, rather than a beach, as it's nearly impossible to surf on it.

3. As spiderman says, not being a surf beach is more appealing to many, particularly families and the elderly. Seaford/Frankston beaches have often been rated the best beaches in Melbourne. It sounds like you grew up in NSW or QLD - the definition of a beach isnt that it needs to have a surf break. And yes it would be impossible to surf at Seaford/Frankston. But where else can you watch the sunset over water on the east coast of Australia?? In fact we are laughing at them


Finally I still cant understand how Dandenong and Springvale can have a higher median house prices than Seaford and Frankston. Seriously who would prefer to live/invest in either of those suburbs? Is there an attraction in these two suburbs that im missing?

 

[Mandy Mac]

whe Vietnamese who settled in Springvale after being let out of the ol- migrant hostel have turned intoa suburb of little shopkeepers and are now quite wealthy.

Dandenong - Dunno.

 

[toony]

Finally I still cant understand how Dandenong and Springvale can have a higher median house prices than Seaford and Frankston. Seriously who would prefer to live/invest in either of those suburbs? Is there an attraction in these two suburbs that im missing?

I must be missing something too.

 

[Peter Parker]

Finally I still cant understand how Dandenong and Springvale can have a higher median house prices than Seaford and Frankston. Seriously who would prefer to live/invest in either of those suburbs? Is there an attraction in these two suburbs that im missing?

There is a strong correlation between proximity to the CBD and house prices.

Springvale and Dandenong are much closer to the CBD than Seaford and Frankston so I'm not suprised that they are dearer.

Springvale and Dandenong would also have 3 or 4 times the number of jobs within 10-15km than Frankston.

So they're not necessarily places people want to live (especially Dandenong) but they're popular because that's where the jobs are.

 

[pickle pickle]

I've also been wondering why the median prices in Dandenong is higher than Frankston for over a year now.

I've decided that it has to be the proximity to the city. I've also wondered why the median prices in Frankston and Seaford are so low and the major issue I see is the proximity to the city.

Most people only need to go to the city for work (however a major reason) and perhaps the night life. Besides work most areas people don't need to go to the city as the suburb has nearly everything needed (or close by) except jobs.

People may disagree with my previous comments previously, however being an investor in Frankston, I have been wondering for nearly 2 years why the median prices in the Frankston area are so low compared with other areas in Melbourne. I believe the issues that I have raised (except maybe the beach part) are extremly valid points.

 

[Bayside]

If it's only based on proximity to the city why are suburbs like Mornington more expensive when they are further away?

 

[Mandy Mac]

Frankston High School is a really good school and very strictly zoned which should add to the desirability of Frankston within the zone at least.

 

[Peter Parker]

If it's only based on proximity to the city why are suburbs like Mornington more expensive when they are further away?

It's the 'hole theory', where for many years first homebuyers would rather get something new further out than a small old 1960s house (in a stigmatised suburb) further in.

You'd graph average house prices (per square metre of land would have been better) in suburbs along a highway or railway line from the CBD and the median values would fall off gradually to about 20 - 30km from the CBD, dip, then rise again on the fringes.

Hence Wyndham Vale rather than Laverton, Roxburgh Park rather than Dallas, Rowville rather than Jordanville or Narre rather than Doveton. Percieved rough neighbourhoods, bad schools and ethnic concentrations might have driven some first buyers away.

However, despite their poor housing stock and reputations, these skipped over suburbs have been good performers and dips have become less deep or disappeared completely.

Proximity to the CBD has become of increasing value. This is sometimes twisted to mean that only owners of inner suburban homes have benefited from superior capital growth (hence the inner vs outer debate).

However this trend has also favoured suburbs (eg Glenroy) that were outer suburbs 30-40 years ago, since their relative position (despite their reputation or circumstances of construction) improves with every fringe housing development built even further away and redevelopment gradually changes its character.

 

[ramzd]

There is another theory that i prescribe too. And that's the theory of `bay slide'. I made this name up, but I've heard the theory banded around.

The last 10 - 15 years has seen an increasing number of young 18 - 35 year olds renting in bayside inner city areas. ie Elwood, St Kilda, Port Melbourne, Middle Park.

Now, it stands to reason that if you rent in a bayside suburb, you're going to enjoy the lifestyle.

So, as these 18-35 years old start to get married and have families, they are going to be (are already) priced out of buying a property in the inner bayside locations.

So, what are they going to do? They will move along the bay, further out from the city. Brighton is too expensive, so they will keep moving down. Sandringham is too expensive, so they will keep moving down.

Eventually, if you get my logic, they will hit Carrum, Seaford, Frankston.

So watch for the demographic in these suburbs become younger, and house value to increase.

 

[BayView]

There is another theory that i prescribe too. And that's the theory of `bay slide'. I made this name up, but I've heard the theory banded around.

The last 10 - 15 years has seen an increasing number of young 18 - 35 year olds renting in bayside inner city areas. ie Elwood, St Kilda, Port Melbourne, Middle Park.

Now, it stands to reason that if you rent in a bayside suburb, you're going to enjoy the lifestyle.

So, as these 18-35 years old start to get married and have families, they are going to be (are already) priced out of buying a property in the inner bayside locations.

So, what are they going to do? They will move along the bay, further out from the city. Brighton is too expensive, so they will keep moving down. Sandringham is too expensive, so they will keep moving down.

Eventually, if you get my logic, they will hit Carrum, Seaford, Frankston.

So watch for the demographic in these suburbs become younger, and house value to increase.

Quite correct, and nothing new.

It's called "overflow suburbs".

 

[ramzd]

ok, I thought I was being quite revolutionary here.

 

[Peter Parker]

Eventually, if you get my logic, they will hit Carrum, Seaford, Frankston.

So watch for the demographic in these suburbs become younger, and house value to increase.

The other half of that is that some bayside suburbs have a high seniors population.

These people won't live forever, so a significant number of houses will come up for sale.

This may also explain the relatively high number of derelict/empty/unmaintained houses in some bayside areas - the owners or inheritor families are too old/couldn't care to maintain them.

Also possibly due to the 'holiday shack' legacy and salt air the average quality of housing stock, architectual tastes and upkeep is not as consistently high as a middle class eastern suburb like Glen Waverley, Vermont or Blackburn.

Though the bayside portion of Mentone is an exception being the bayside's 'dress circle' area and better kept than suburbs to the south (despite the lack of direct beach access from quiet residential streets commonly available in the Aspendale - Carrum stretch).