See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by see_change, 1st Sep, 2014.

  1. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    I've been accused of being bullish , trying to hype or spruik the sydney market .

    However confident I am in my own abilities ( believe me I'm not that confident , those on the forum who know me , know I'm a relatively quiet person ) I don't think I can do that ..:(

    However rather than have people drip feed criticisms against me when ever I " report " an article that it is positive about the Sydney market I will post it here .

    I have noticed there is another poster , Richard Feynman , who has been equally guilty as I have , so I've put his name up in the title as well . RF , I hope that's ok with you .

    Disclaimer . I own several properties in sydney and at some stage will be selling one while keeping the other five.

    As a buy and hold investment , at the moment I would not be buying in sydney

    The first three articles have been posted elsewhere .

    I will report the APM clearance rates . They consistently report higher levels so in the interest of a balanced approach I'll use them ;)

    Clearance rate over 80 % for four weeks

    Strongest winter market since GFC

    Buyers ignore RBA warning

    My agenda is I'm watching the Sydney market closely so I can gauge the best time to sell .

    Cliff
     
  2. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    Another strong weekend. Good clearance rate (1% down on last week with a whopping 35% more homes sold).

    I think spring is going to be a bumper. I also think steady growth will continue for a while.

    I've been tracking things pretty closely.

    Median Sale Price (auctions):
    26th July was $856,250
    4th August was $907,000 (+ 5.9% from the 26th)
    9th August was $931,500 (+ 8.8% from the 26th)
    16th August was $899,000 (+ 4% from the 26th)
    23rd August was $965,000 (+ 12.7% from the 26th)
    30th August was $965,000 (+ 12.7% from the 26th)
     
  3. Shovelhead

    Shovelhead Banned

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  4. MTR

    MTR Bling Bling

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    What's wrong with saying it how it is, in fact the smart investors should have, would have been buying when there were early reports on SS of the Sydney market rising.

    This is how I get some of my tips, then I basically check out whether its fact or fiction. Purchasing in West Syd in 2011 was not genius just someone imparting their knowledge/info. ... thanks:)

    I would like to know exactly what in Syd is moving, its appears blue chip is now going nuts, does this mean West Syd has now slowed down.

    This Syd boom is so different from historical booms, where originally started with inner city blue chip and rippled out to the middle ring/outer suburbs. This property boom started with West Syd, I think in part this was due to immigration and affordability. Any thoughts.

    MTR:)
     
  5. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    That was mentioned on ABC 24 news this am .

    The economic commentator said it was only affecting a minor part of the top end and he didn't see any action occurring . It's not affecting the masses and he thought it was a distraction.

    Given many liberal pollies already own houses in this market , I can't see them stopping it .

    My observation from the last two months is that most buyers in the > 2 mill market on the north shore are of Asian appearance , South east and southern .

    Talking to agents , most are Australian citizens , with only an occasional person going through the FIRB .

    Cliff
     
  6. mikezen

    mikezen Bigmember

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    Hi SC,

    I always like reading your posts

    In your opinion how far behind Sydney does Brisbane usually trail?

    I remember watching Gladstone and 2770 when they start to rise strongly, and in comparison it seems that Brisbane is miles off this stage....

    Maybe second half of 2015?
     
  7. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    I don't think that's something you can predict accurately . I don't attempt to .

    If you watch the market closely you can see it happening . I'm not watching Brisbane closely .

    Cliff
     
  8. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    The impact of foreign investors is minimal.

    MTR, one thing to note which seems to be playing out is something Andrew Wilson pointed out at a seminar maybe 6 months ago. He called it before the prestige market picked up.

    Low end moves first
    Then middle
    Then high

    Also said that the strong performance of the share market would stimulate more activity in the high end.

    It looks like he was on the money.

    The recent lift in median sale prices adds further weight to his call.
     
  9. Tonibell

    Tonibell Member

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    So ..... is there anyone recommending Sydney as a good investment now ?

    How fare from the peak is it now - another 10% ?

    I'd much prefer to buy more in Sydney (even with land tax) but the opportunities all seem elsewhere now.
     
  10. z611143

    z611143 Member

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    Can I ask being a novice or you could say a "beginner" how I would go about finding these figures? Id like to some work myself.
     
  11. z611143

    z611143 Member

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    Can I ask see change how you go about 'watching' this. What resources and tools do you use?

    Id love to learn and be able to understand.

    Thanks
    Z6
     
  12. Singo

    Singo Member

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    Resources : A unique data source. Search the forum. The information about this data source is out there.

    Tools: One which has good optical character recognition features and is good for detecting trends and potential buying dips.

    Hint: Rixter knows as well.
     
    Last edited: 2nd Sep, 2014
  13. z611143

    z611143 Member

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    Id think the major opportunities are elsewhere. Why is Sydney so advanced or so expensive?

    I think it really depends where the next lot mining boom happens. Mayne that will be NSW or QLD or SA. Thats where I see the next big movement in housing happening. WA is hitting a slow/tough period. No one can get jobs or its really difficult. Its in a stabalizing period before I think we see a slight decline before we hit something else special. I know iron ore isnt seeming to be as good here as it was expected. Alot of people are getting canned due to the poil potential in the ground.
     
  14. skater

    skater Capitalist

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    Western Sydney is going gangbusters. A lot of the Agents are doing a 'Property Launch". They advertise a new list for a few weeks, do one Open Home (the Launch), and take offers and sell it on the day, sometimes for much higher than the advertised amount.

    We went to one place, which was very pretty. The home was really no better than some of the others we'd seen, except it had a lovely outlook onto the pool area. In the 5 mins we were there, I saw around 10 people filling in their written offer forms handed to everyone who attended.

    This property was in St Clair, which, according to some of the Agents, is extremely popular due to it's proximity to Erskine Park & the new industrial estate. Lots of huge employers moving in and their workers all want to live closeby.
     
  15. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    The best source for what is happening in a particular area at any time is reading the forum , talking to local agents and getting out and going to see what is happening at opens. I'll look at the ten year charts you can find in the suburb profile in RE.com.au

    If I want to find out what is happening in Logan , I'll ring up all the agents and say , " so what's happening in Logan at the moment " .

    I'll have already read any posts on the forum , so I'll have the back story set in my mind . eg when the previous boom happened , if there has been a slump since then .

    I'll let them talk first but I'll want to find out specific things .

    Who's buying ? What segments are hot and what isn't

    How quickly are things selling , is it getting longer , shorter ?

    What's happening with supply ?

    Are there more places on the market than a year ago etc ?

    I'll ask them what they think is going to happen .

    I'll tell them what I'm interested in . eg investor looking for good returns ... ( aren't we all )

    Do this with several agents and a picture will appear . Most agents are honest though a few will exaggerate .

    If you know the area you will know the type of properties that people like , but if you don't , ask the agent what type of properties are popular . High sets ring the right bells in logan but in Sydney ....

    Make notes of all the comments that you get back and use those help guide further questions with the next agents .

    An agent who you have a good rapport with will get you a sale that you might otherwise miss oput on.

    For specifics on what type of properties to buy in an area , talk to the PM's . They have to rent them and only want one's that are easy to rent ....

    Cliff
     
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  16. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Historically that has happened with every cycle . Sydney leads , the rest follows .

    That's why many forumites where buying in sydney in the last 4-5 years , picking up bargains when the market was not hot .

    Cliff
     
  17. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    ABC 24 news this morning ( following on from RP Data )

    Business report expressed surprised at the strength of the property market over winter , and sees nothing to see that it will slow down over spring .

    Couldn't see any reason why RBA will increase rates any time soon so expect further increases this Spring .

    We've taken our PPOR off the market now and will watch closely to see what happens

    Cliff
     
  18. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    That data is from the APM Auction Results on SMH.com.au


    *crystal ball comes out*

    I reckon another 10%-15% is highly probable over the next 18-24 months. But that's not tearaway growth. The next set of quarterly growth data looks like it will show good movement too.

    I'm very likely to be buying again in Sydney soon and am expecting steady growth in my areas of interest through the next 18-24 months. However, these are buy and hold purchase with a longterm view so I'm not chasing short term gains (those came over the last year). I'm also going to be purchasing interstate and am not expecting "Sydney" as a whole to perform as well as the pockets I like.

    I've seen about 10% on two of my purchases in just 3-4 months in Sydney. That is certainly not sustainable.
     
  19. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Member

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    I have been accused of much worse with words not far off that.

    Human nature deems that what is being communicated isnt going to be seen/heard/felt the same way by all people.


    ta
    rolf
     
  20. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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