See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

I posted these figured in another post for Sydney for last 15 years in 5 year windows for non strata properties.

The agreement was that Sydney west market moved first and is in buying frenze. If you look at last 5 years 2009 -2014, the outer ring is still in average 7.81% year on year growth for that 5 year window.

1994-1999
Inner Ring 10.48%
Middle Ring 8.83%
Outer Ring 6.76%
Rest of GMR 4.05%

1999-2004
Inner Ring 12.55%
Middle Ring 13.85%
Outer Ring 15.32%
Rest of GMR 16.30%

2004-2009
Inner Ring 1.30%
Middle Ring -2.18%
Outer Ring -2.11%
Rest of GMR 0.09%

2009-2014
Inner Ring 10.41%
Middle Ring 10.92%
Outer Ring 7.81%
Rest of GMR 5.48%

One would argue that outer ring is not just Sydney West alone, but included Hornsby, Gosford. removing north parts and very south parts, the following are specific LGA last 5 years of year on year growth for non strata dwelling (note I included Sydney South West as it moved closely with West)

Blacktown 8.07%
Fairfield 8.86%
Hawkesbury 6.45%
Holroyd 8.39%
Liverpool 7.14%
Penrith 6.81%

From a technical analysis point of view, I can't see why the outer ring can't outperform the inner/outer ring in the next 5 years? Or does the numbers suggest outer ring still have some catching up.

Putting simply my argument:
1994-1999 Inner/Middle outperformed Outer 2-4 %
1999-2004 Inner/Middle underperformed Outer 2-3 %
2004-2009 Inner/Middle outperformed Outer 0-3 %
2009-2014 Inner/Middle outperformed Outer 3 %
**2014-2019 Inner/Middle underperformed Outer 2-3 %

** I was dreaming :D
 
I've seen about 10% on two of my purchases in just 3-4 months in Sydney. That is certainly not sustainable.

How do you determine this ?

I know our properties in Sydney must have had a lot of growth over the last couple of years - but find it hard to do find real comparables because there are so many factors.

The SPI magazine that just came out said that the suburb for our PPOR on the LNS grew by 30%+ in the last 12 months. We knew it was going well but given the base was already very high it is difficult to believe it could have grown that much.
 
How do you determine this ?

I know our properties in Sydney must have had a lot of growth over the last couple of years - but find it hard to do find real comparables because there are so many factors.

The SPI magazine that just came out said that the suburb for our PPOR on the LNS grew by 30%+ in the last 12 months. We knew it was going well but given the base was already very high it is difficult to believe it could have grown that much.

I's a combo of data + having an intimate "feel" for a very small pocket of the market, which I've had my finger on the pulse of for some time.

I'm out at opens every weekend, have been guessing sale and auction prices on almost everything (I've been very, very close on most), am scouring data sources constantly, talking to agents etc. I've also privately tracked median sale prices of my exact type of stock (e.g. house or apartment, and number of bedrooms) and watched them move.

realestate.com.au is a good way of keeping an eye on median list prices too. Their newly updated suburb data is pretty good for gauging movement.
 
APM 's summary for the last week

I was interested in this paragraph

Sydney has recorded its highest ever August for auction listings this year with nearly 2,700 properties going under the hammer. Auction sales numbers were also at record records levels for the month of August with the market clearly on the rise over recent weeks.

Cliff
 
Cliff
So panic is setting in, this is a good time to sell premium blue chip and get top $:)

MTR

At the moment there isn't panic . On the north shore , Well located properties , east side , flat blocks walk station are being highly sought after with lots of competition . They are selling at top of expectations but not at OMG , THAT SOLD FOR WHAT !! prices yet .

Things have been picking up for a month or so , but this week , with the RP data report coming out , is the first week there has been much of an increase in general media commentary .

What happens now depends on supply vs demand .

1- 2 months ago potential vendors were being told don't wait for spring , go now . We were . So we've had increased winter listings and most have been selling.

If many potential spring listings have gone early , then we may find that there isn't the normal pick up in spring listings .

Part of the reason why we were going to sell our PPOR was I wanted to invest elsewhere and I wasn't sure how quickly or soon sydney would move up . Today I'm glad we took our PPOR of the market .

With the media starting to report about increases in prices , continuing low interest rates , buyers wanting to buy so they don't miss out or so they can lock in low rates , relative low supply , I wondering if we might see a decent jump over the next few months . Maybe even 10 % or more .... Sort of a perfect storm .

Long term watchers have seen that sort of jump happen numerous times before and from what I see , all the drivers are in place

I have my fingers crossed.

Cliff
 
With the media starting to report about increases in prices , continuing low interest rates , buyers wanting to buy so they don't miss out or so they can lock in low rates , relative low supply , I wondering if we might see a decent jump over the next few months . Maybe even 10 % or more .... Sort of a perfect storm .

Long term watchers have seen that sort of jump happen numerous times before and from what I see , all the drivers are in place

I have my fingers crossed.

Cliff

Its sounds like all the stars a lined up, happy days, I love it when this happens, 10% perhaps even more. Good luck, though I really don't think you need it;)
 
If they are buying "prestige homes" then they are not affecting 95% of the population - who are middle class and below, and mostly broke.

Tell them to come and make an offer on my joint!! :D :rolleyes:

And this;

"If you are a resident and can afford it, I have no problem with that. But those that are flaunting the rules are distorting the market," he said.
They are only distorting a very small section of the property market that most will only ever dream of being in.

The only distortion might be in the media quoted "median prices" - a lot of top-end houses sold will drag the median up.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by see_change View Post
I've been accused of being bullish , trying to hype or spruik the sydney market .
No worse than "Grandad" spruiking Frankston, Cliff. :D

Don't worry about it mate;

If you are "on the ground", and tell us X, we can decide to believe or question.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by see_change View Post
I've been accused of being bullish , trying to hype or spruik the sydney market .

No worse than "Grandad" spruiking Frankston, Cliff. :D

Don't worry about it mate;

If you are "on the ground", and tell us X, we can decide to believe or question.

I guess it gets boring but go for it if it fills in your day. It's more the button-pushing and lack or respect that might offend some.

Good luck! :D
 
I guess it gets boring but go for it if it fills in your day. It's more the button-pushing and lack or respect that might offend some.

Good luck! :D

I think the title of the thread says it all .

If it's not of interest to you and it's boring , why read it .

Are you suggesting that the thread has nothing to do with property investing or that some topics shouldn't be discussed ....

Don't you think the members of the forum are capable of reading different opinions and coming to their conclusion , or do you feel that you have the right to arbitrate or make snide comments when you disagree.

If you actually have a point to make on the topic make it .

Why bother replying with a post that adds nothing to the topic at hand or do you have another agenda?

Cliff
 
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With the media starting to report about increases in prices , continuing low interest rates , buyers wanting to buy so they don't miss out or so they can lock in low rates , relative low supply , I wondering if we might see a decent jump over the next few months . Maybe even 10 % or more .... Sort of a perfect storm .

I won't be surprised if this does happen. The ingredients seem to be there.
 
I'd like to see Shadow contributing to this topic too. There was a marvellous graph posted a while back showing Sydney price growth vs the longterm historical average. It suggested a lot of catching up.

Who wants to take a punt at APM clearance rates this weekend?

My money is on 80%. If higher, all I can say is hold on for the ride.
 
Just from the sidelines,not sure if anyone has ever read a book by Raghuram Rajan a prominent Economist "Fault-Lines,how hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy,,i have read the book a few times and will read it again till it sinks in,from what I read he talks about when we have artificially low interest rates below the appropriate normal levels that creates a massive asset push sometimes way above normal fundamentals that prices become so stretched when as they always do the interest rates go skyward the market reaction sometimes all markets overshot the value point,maybe it is the perfect storm..imho..

BTW Raghuram-Rajan was one person from early 2005 onwards that was warning about credit default securities,,and mortgage thin backed securities,noone took him seriously until the #### hit the star-delta high speed fan in 2008,just something to think about..imho..

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9111.html
 
Does anyone know where I can get historical data going back 5-20 years on the following (in raw excel format data that I can extrapolate/manipulate)

  • auction clearance rate
  • vacancy rate

The Housing NSW web site only has:
rent and property price median
 
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