See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

Still early days but APM has reported for the 31st Jan 2015:

Number Listed Auctions: 97
Number Reported Auctions: 85
Sold: 67
Withdrawn: 10
% Cleared: 71 %
Total Sales: $46,497,500
Median: $712,000



I'm gonna make some predictions (for my own benefit). I can check back on them over time:

  • Inner West to continue to outperform wider Sydney (and within that area, Marrickville--my baby--to be a star, especially 2 bed apartments and entry level homes. Also expect to see good growth for areas around the recently completed light rail extension)
  • 5-20km from CBD to put on 10%+ in the 2015 calendar year (might even outperform the 5-15km radius around the Bris CBD over the same period)
  • Rate cut Feb/March to have a marginal impact, adding a little momentum
  • (If a second) rate cut happens Q3/Q4 2015, that momentum to carry into 2016
  • Sydney with another 15%+ left in it this cycle
  • Massive amounts of new apartment stock (especially Bris, Syd and Melb CBDs) to continue to be absorbed by off shore investors with increasing vacancy rates in those areas (for a period)
  • Many $100mil+ acquisitions of development sites around transport hubs and the CBD by off shore developers
  • Media swinging like a pendulum "Boom back, clearance rates hit 80%!!!", "-0.4% this month! OMG! Bubble burst! Price crash! Sell, sell, sell! Then jump out of a window!!"
  • More developers producing micro-apartments (or a percentage of them) within their projects
 
  • Sydney with another 15%+ left in it this cycle


Interesting post RF.

If this happens, investor credit growth will likely hit 10%+. Can't see how this wont have impacts on the lending market (discussed in an earlier finance thread). May be something to add to the story in Q2/Q3 2015.
 
It's over, they've sold.

Hype finished.:rolleyes:

True ...

But the Sydney market seems to have possible even kicked up another gear at the start of this year .

We've been busy , today moving into the downsizer which we bought 18 months ago . Refinanced and value came in at 1.5 up from purchase price of 1.15 so we're happy .

Talked to friends who are looking to buy in upper north shore . They went to open last week and there were 70 people there . In at bank signing docs today and asked manager what she was seeing . That morning she'd been consoling a customer . The agent had been quoting 1 mill . Sold for 1.4 ...

We're happy with what we've made and we still have 5 Sydney properties which are still going up . PAid off large amounts of non deductible debt . Now time to think where next .

Cliff
 
Great work See change! I just wonder how people handle land tax in Sydney since the land price is so high. You have 5 properties in Sydney, are you paying a lot of land tax?
 
True ...

But the Sydney market seems to have possible even kicked up another gear at the start of this year .

We've been busy , today moving into the downsizer which we bought 18 months ago . Refinanced and value came in at 1.5 up from purchase price of 1.15 so we're happy .

Talked to friends who are looking to buy in upper north shore . They went to open last week and there were 70 people there . In at bank signing docs today and asked manager what she was seeing . That morning she'd been consoling a customer . The agent had been quoting 1 mill . Sold for 1.4 ...

We're happy with what we've made and we still have 5 Sydney properties which are still going up . PAid off large amounts of non deductible debt . Now time to think where next .

Cliff

Go See Change - you have picked everything so well. I'm glad I've being following you.
I personally believe Sydney has a way to go yet aswell. Am looking for circa 40% more growth this cycle.
 
True ...

But the Sydney market seems to have possible even kicked up another gear at the start of this year .

We've been busy , today moving into the downsizer which we bought 18 months ago . Refinanced and value came in at 1.5 up from purchase price of 1.15 so we're happy .

Talked to friends who are looking to buy in upper north shore . They went to open last week and there were 70 people there . In at bank signing docs today and asked manager what she was seeing . That morning she'd been consoling a customer . The agent had been quoting 1 mill . Sold for 1.4 ...

We're happy with what we've made and we still have 5 Sydney properties which are still going up . PAid off large amounts of non deductible debt . Now time to think where next .

Cliff

Good one. I think UNS has catch up now with rest of Sydney prices. Last year i noticed that Wahroonga/Turramurra was "bargain" compare to Hills prices. After all Sydney is a mature market and people will notice it sooner or later. Holding cost overthere is high though so it is only good for PPOR (and a nice area for PPOR I must say!).

One thing i note though is that I think far-Western Sydney is probably overpriced compare with the more bluechip part of Sydney. But with interest rate this low, people will just BUY BUY BUY ..... and people are thinking that interest rate won't go up anytime soon (look at the 5 year fixed rate!).
 
Go See Change - you have picked everything so well. I'm glad I've being following you.
I personally believe Sydney has a way to go yet aswell. Am looking for circa 40% more growth this cycle.

40% more? That would put median prices nearly into the $1.2s , do you see that happening?
 
Great work See change! I just wonder how people handle land tax in Sydney since the land price is so high. You have 5 properties in Sydney, are you paying a lot of land tax?

While we had downsizer and previous PPOR , SOME BUT NOT MUCH ? Around 5 k , but now we've sold , none .

1 PPOR , 2 units in my name upto threshold and 2 in super , also under threshold . Weekender in SWMBO 's name also under threshold .

Part of the reason why last buys were in q'land and next won't be in NSW .

CLIFF
 
Great work See change! I just wonder how people handle land tax in Sydney since the land price is so high. You have 5 properties in Sydney, are you paying a lot of land tax?

You would think the land threshold would also increase a bit, but sadly... The last year was a monster jump in land value. Though they average last 3 years, but we can see it's gonna hurt moving forward.
 
I am not confident but I'm up for a punt. I think clearance rates might approach 75% today.

It's going to be very, VERY interesting watch what happens this year.

I reckon with the 0.25% rate cut the market will only gain a little more momentum. However, when (I should say if but I'm reasonably confident) another 0.25% cut happens--which I imagine will be April (slightly less likely) or March (slightly more likely)--I can see things starting to roll a bit more.

What I'm most interested in is whether we see a bit of a spike in prices growth/clearance rates etc once the next cut comes or a more sustained, drawn out period of growth until the next rise..
 
I am not confident but I'm up for a punt. I think clearance rates might approach 75% today.

It's going to be very, VERY interesting watch what happens this year.

I reckon with the 0.25% rate cut the market will only gain a little more momentum. However, when (I should say if but I'm reasonably confident) another 0.25% cut happens--which I imagine will be April (slightly less likely) or March (slightly more likely)--I can see things starting to roll a bit more.

What I'm most interested in is whether we see a bit of a spike in prices growth/clearance rates etc once the next cut comes or a more sustained, drawn out period of growth until the next rise..

To be honest I thought the run only had 15% left this yr but now I think it has more to go. The ripple out (which has well and truly begun) is gonna be better and bigger too.
 
John Symonds (Aussie Home Loans fame) said on breakfast tv a few days ago that he thought this latest cut would probably not affect things a whole lot.

His view was that we are approaching the top of the market, and a plateau-ing out.
 
While we had downsizer and previous PPOR , SOME BUT NOT MUCH ? Around 5 k , but now we've sold , none .

1 PPOR , 2 units in my name upto threshold and 2 in super , also under threshold . Weekender in SWMBO 's name also under threshold .

Part of the reason why last buys were in q'land and next won't be in NSW .

CLIFF

Thank you See change. :)That is a good idea to use SMSF to buy property. Well, my super doesn't have enough money yet, maybe after 5 years. The tax benefit is good if I sell the property when I retired.

Yeah, you don't need to pay land tax yet. I remember Rixter recommended people to buy townhouses instead of houses. I think part of the reason is land tax.

However houses can get CG faster. Buy-and-hold of a house is my preferred strategy, but land tax makes this strategy not work very well because you have to sell the house at some point of time when the land values are too much...:(
 
I'm selling up in inner-west Sydney, mainly for debt consolidation and to diversify the portfolio.

Very happy with being able to being able to buy my new PPOR 6 months before selling my ex-PPOR, as the stats say Sydney has moved about 8-10% in that 6 months.

Interestingly enough my selling agent showed me the RP data stats that say there is 13% less stock on the market compared to this time last year. Short supply in stock indeed.
 
40% more? That would put median prices nearly into the $1.2s , do you see that happening?
Yes - lower rates, dropping Aussie Dollar, best city in the best country, population increasing, rural economy set to boom which will provide you city slickers with more cash, heaps more.
 
This week's interest rate cut has "added fuel to what is already a raging fire", the Domain Group senior economist said, leading to an incredible 82.4 per cent auction clearance rate this weekend.

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/investors-embrace-rate-cut-at-sydney-auctions-20150207-138ir8.html

Don't know why all these commentators use terms such as raging fire etc. In my opinion the Sydney market is following a pretty normal pattern. I don't believe we've seen anything really silly yet. In fact on the Economic Clock I reckon we are at circa 8.00am which is falling interest rates and finally rising share prices. Then we move to rising commodity prices - share market booms, then real estate booms.
 
I'm not sure what the fuss about Sydney prices now. People are forgetting that Sydney prices have been generally higher than other Australian cities. People are forgetting that Sydney has gone thorough a long time flat period.

Here is a House price index: Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, 2002?03 to 2013?14

Brisbane's house price index moved from 69.7 (2003/04) to 107.8. That is a 55% increase.

Melbourne moved from 60.1 to 110.4. That is 84% increase!

Where as Sydney has moved 87.5 to 120.5. That is still only 38%.

So.. yes. Prices are high in Sydney but that is 'normal' :)
 
I'm not sure what the fuss about Sydney prices now. People are forgetting that Sydney prices have been generally higher than other Australian cities. People are forgetting that Sydney has gone thorough a long time flat period.

Here is a House price index: Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, 2002?03 to 2013?14

Brisbane's house price index moved from 69.7 (2003/04) to 107.8. That is a 55% increase.

Melbourne moved from 60.1 to 110.4. That is 84% increase!

Where as Sydney has moved 87.5 to 120.5. That is still only 38%.

So.. yes. Prices are high in Sydney but that is 'normal' :)

Spot on :)
 
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