See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

Does anyone know where I can get historical data going back 5-20 years on the following (in raw excel format data that I can extrapolate/manipulate)

  • auction clearance rate
  • vacancy rate

The Housing NSW web site only has:
rent and property price median

And does anyone know where I can get all the data, ever?

I would like it.

All.
 
See Change and Richard Feynman . let's hype the sydney market thread .

WHAT...No Mention of Shadow :eek: :D


Purchasing in West Syd in 2011 was not genius just someone imparting their knowledge/info. ... thanks:)

That'd be me then, no genius, just purchased in 2011

Western Sydney is going gangbusters. A lot of the Agents are doing a 'Property Launch". They advertise a new list for a few weeks, do one Open Home (the Launch), and take offers and sell it on the day, sometimes for much higher than the advertised amount.

Any temptation to sell any potential "renovator's" then Skater, saves doing the work :confused:
 
he talks about when we have artificially low interest rates below the appropriate normal levels that creates a massive asset push sometimes way above normal fundamentals that prices become so stretched when as they always do the interest rates go skyward the market reaction sometimes all markets overshot the value point,maybe it is the perfect storm..imho..
So what you are saying is that interest rates are going to go higher. Because of that prices are going to go high as well??
 
So what you are saying is that interest rates are going to go higher. Because of that prices are going to go high as well??

Just depends on how long the interest rates stay low as long as they do with a under supply of properties on the market,so many people trying to enter the market,media every day with a different angle on outcomes and with minimal theorizing some may get into problems knowing the real face value of anything,sometimes you can learn more by just watching..imho..

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...a-banker-on-the-move/articleshow/41296212.cms
 
WHAT...No Mention of Shadow :eek: :D

I'd like to see Shadow contributing to this topic too.

I really do hope Shadow pops by!

I would bet on 'same as last-weekend' at any given point in time :)

The volume of stock this weekend is another hefty leap. 27% more than the weekend prior, which itself was up 30-something percent on the weekend before it.

Mind you, I was 1% too conservative (same reasoning) last weekend.
 
Just from the sidelines,not sure if anyone has ever read a book by Raghuram Rajan a prominent Economist "Fault-Lines,how hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy,,i have read the book a few times and will read it again till it sinks in,from what I read he talks about when we have artificially low interest rates below the appropriate normal levels that creates a massive asset push sometimes way above normal fundamentals that prices become so stretched when as they always do the interest rates go skyward the market reaction sometimes all markets overshot the value point,maybe it is the perfect storm..imho..

BTW Raghuram-Rajan was one person from early 2005 onwards that was warning about credit default securities,,and mortgage thin backed securities,noone took him seriously until the #### hit the star-delta high speed fan in 2008,just something to think about..imho..

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9111.html

That will happen

Prices will over shoot , become unaffordable, there will be some economic shock and we will go into another slump .

It's the economic cycle .

There maybe another trigger this time , but IMHO , it will happen .

Just not yet . We still have a period of irrational exuberance to go through before we get there .

Cliff
 
As much as interest rates are low and probably not going to get too much lower in the near future, its forcing prices of housing for the FHO market to be in a tough period where its probably not best to buy right now
 
Reserve Bank sets stage for bumper selling season

Reserve Bank sets stage for bumper selling season

Quotes :

In a statement issued by the RBA, governor Glenn Stevens has reiterated that the cash rate is likely to remain unchanged for some time.

......

... LJ Hooker chief executive Grant Harrod believes stable low interest rates will continue to fuel the Australian market heading into spring, and give buyers more confidence to make a transaction.

"Certainly in the last couple of months, we've been in a situation where there's been insufficient stock to meet the level of buyer interest," he said.

........

Ray White chairman Brian White said continued low interest rates would be good news for buyers and sellers.

"The forthcoming spring season is as good as I've seen for quite a number of years," he said.


Cliff
 
I am noticing in social occasions people are starting to talk about property market in a way I haven't seen since the boom early last decade. Letterbox is chockers with 'good time to sell' brochures.
It sounds like a bit of panic buying is going on, FOMO as they say.
 
Ray White chairman Brian White said continued low interest rates would be good news for buyers and sellers.
How can it be good for a buyer when it's good for a seller?

Or vice versa?

Forget that question...

I should have known - it was a statement by a real estate agent about property. :rolleyes:
 
At the moment he's just trying to jawbone the market to slow down . Given the weakness in the economy , he's not going to increase rates considering the main market going ahead is Sydney and the worst is driven by OS investors paying over the top to local residents ....

Is that such a bad thing:D

At this stage , talk of a bubble is just that . Talk .

Cliff
 
What did David Gonski Say

Gee, couldn't find one hype the market article today , so lets address the negative ones ;)

A speech by David Gonski , ANZ Chairman has triggered a couple of interesting headlines

Macrobusiness comes up with

Gonski Warns housing fools

SMH came up with House Price boom must end

What did he actually say ?

ANZ chairman David Gonski has warned Australia's booming housing prices cannot go on forever and the market will eventually experience a correction.

The former Future Fund chairman said ANZ and all the big banks were "very aware of history" when it came to financial lending in the residential mortgage market.

"There will come a time when there will be a correction," he told the Australian British Chamber of Commerce.
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"The fact is, anyone who believes prices always go up is, I think, a fool."


What he said is just common sense and very balanced . I don't think too many of the property fools that macro says he is warning exist on this forum .

THe SMH's Boom must end is correct ... But ..... you are unlikely to have a correction when the leading market ( Sydney ) is only 20 % above it's previous peak . Given the historical doubling of the property market ( time frame debatable ) .

Given the unlikelihood of the RBA increasing rates anytime soon , I think we will be in for a stead drip feed of Negative talk about bubbles from the top end of town .

Each Cycle is peaked by a period of irrational exuberance , where people will say " oh my gosh, that sold for ....... " . In 2004 , friends sold a house in a particular area of turramurra for close to 2 mill . That was our reaction . If that house sold at this stage , it might just get that price again , and that's give that the market has gone up around 20 % as a whole since then.

There will be a correction . Just not yet ......

Cliff
 
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