Seriously will Syd ever stop going up?

Sydney fundamentals are still strong. This recent blog post helps to put things into the broader context.

http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/macro-prudential-and-sydney-property.html

Yea...the fundamentals in syd are very strong and non transient, which limits the severity and duration of any future correction; however there will be a correction, just that it will be more muted.
Sydney's main issue is affordability - cg outpacing salary growth and that is a big driver for sydneysiders to look elsewhere.
 
Ywhich limits the severity and duration of any future correction; however there will be a correction

It's like after GFC, I thought it would collapse. But it was just a little muted as you said, and it wasn't until many years later that I realised...oh, THAT was the crash. That little blip on the radar. That was it. LOL!


Also the same with Brisbane after the floods. I thought the non-flooded areas would be decimated. So it dropped 10%. Maybe 15%. More like 10% really, in most good areas. I was like where's this 50% drop?! Again, it never happened. Again, it wasn't after a year or two that I realised that 10% drop was "it".

I've learned after these two pretty earth shattering incidents that you need some really, really bad for there to be a serious crash. People expecting a doomsday are dreaming.
 
Not just Sydney

I rang up about this one in good ole' Dapto today, thought I'd get in quick after noticing the New status on the ad.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-dapto-119855661

The agent said there were 35 groups through the 1st open on Saturday, 6 offers were placed there and then, and 2 started a bidding war on the spot, so it's as good as sold. I asked the agent if they got around the asking price, and he just laughed. :eek:
 
It's like after GFC, I thought it would collapse. But it was just a little muted as you said, and it wasn't until many years later that I realised...oh, THAT was the crash. That little blip on the radar. That was it. LOL!


Also the same with Brisbane after the floods. I thought the non-flooded areas would be decimated. So it dropped 10%. Maybe 15%. More like 10% really, in most good areas. I was like where's this 50% drop?! Again, it never happened. Again, it wasn't after a year or two that I realised that 10% drop was "it".

I've learned after these two pretty earth shattering incidents that you need some really, really bad for there to be a serious crash. People expecting a doomsday are dreaming.

Having said that , there will always be occasional bargains , wher a HIGHLY MOTIVATED vendor hits a a slowing market . I have seen good individual properties sell for those dramatically decreased prices .

To pick those up you need to see lots of properties and make silly offers and have lots of rejections .

Cliff
 
To pick those up you need to see lots of properties and make silly offers and have lots of rejections .

I've always thought about doing this, I mean you'd get lucky eventually. But wouldn't you burn bridges with all the agents? There are only so many lowballs you can throw before they stop taking you seriously. You'd get away with it in a dead market, since beggars can't be choosy. But in a slowing market? I figure there would still be enough optimism left for them to tell you to f'off and stop taking your calls?
 
It's like after GFC, I thought it would collapse. But it was just a little muted as you said, and it wasn't until many years later that I realised...oh, THAT was the crash. That little blip on the radar. That was it. LOL!


Also the same with Brisbane after the floods. I thought the non-flooded areas would be decimated. So it dropped 10%. Maybe 15%. More like 10% really, in most good areas. I was like where's this 50% drop?! Again, it never happened. Again, it wasn't after a year or two that I realised that 10% drop was "it".

I've learned after these two pretty earth shattering incidents that you need some really, really bad for there to be a serious crash. People expecting a doomsday are dreaming.

10% drop after the GFC and 2011 floods but add this to no growth 2008-2013 accounting for inflation and prices probably went backwards at least 20% in real terms unfortunately
 
10% drop after the GFC and 2011 floods but add this to no growth 2008-2013 accounting for inflation and prices probably went backwards at least 20% in real terms unfortunately

Yes I'm aware of that too. But you have to remember at around the same time people were tipping 50% or so drops in Sydney after the GFC and Brisbane after the floods. So 20% was nothing really. I really need to stop reading mainstream press! I've already cut out SMH etc, and sticking with ABC and SBS news.
 
I've always thought about doing this, I mean you'd get lucky eventually. But wouldn't you burn bridges with all the agents? There are only so many lowballs you can throw before they stop taking you seriously. You'd get away with it in a dead market, since beggars can't be choosy. But in a slowing market? I figure there would still be enough optimism left for them to tell you to f'off and stop taking your calls?

I'd disagree . You ( and often the agent ) don't know how motivated the vendor is .

You make an offer ( which the agent has to pass on legally ) and don't make a counter offer .

Next time ( same agent ) , low ball offer .... Owner asks the agent " what do you think you can get them up to " . Agent .... He doesn't make follow up offers , so I don't think you'll get them up at all . Take it or leave it .

I call it reverse conditioning ..

The alternative is to make a one and only offer . And then come back with another offer .... That looks stupid and looses credibility .

I've never had an agent not prepared to talk or deal with us because we've made a lower offer , though we're always nice when we do it :D

Cliff
 
I'd disagree . You ( and often the agent ) don't know how motivated the vendor is .

You make an offer ( which the agent has to pass on legally ) and don't make a counter offer .

Next time ( same agent ) , low ball offer .... Owner asks the agent " what do you think you can get them up to " . Agent .... He doesn't make follow up offers , so I don't think you'll get them up at all . Take it or leave it .

I call it reverse conditioning ..

The alternative is to make a one and only offer . And then come back with another offer .... That looks stupid and looses credibility .

I've never had an agent not prepared to talk or deal with us because we've made a lower offer , though we're always nice when we do it :D

Cliff

Good point. You'd have to be disciplined but I get the logic.

I guess it might be a problem though when you find a property / PPOR that you'd really be willing to negotiate on!
 
Good point. You'd have to be disciplined but I get the logic.

I guess it might be a problem though when you find a property / PPOR that you'd really be willing to negotiate on!

Then you negotiate .

I'm talking about IP's , though we have negotiated on those many times . Depends on your aim .

Cliff
 
It's like after GFC, I thought it would collapse. But it was just a little muted as you said, and it wasn't until many years later that I realised...oh, THAT was the crash. That little blip on the radar. That was it. LOL!


Also the same with Brisbane after the floods. I thought the non-flooded areas would be decimated. So it dropped 10%. Maybe 15%. More like 10% really, in most good areas. I was like where's this 50% drop?! Again, it never happened. Again, it wasn't after a year or two that I realised that 10% drop was "it".

I've learned after these two pretty earth shattering incidents that you need some really, really bad for there to be a serious crash. People expecting a doomsday are dreaming.

Totally agree.

Doomsday spruikers and people who have missed the boat who say they are going to buy everything when it crashes are out of their mind. As if people will have the balls to buy when the market is crashing and the financial markets are imploding?! They didn't have the balls to get into the market in the first place.

No one can predict the bottom or top, it's like buying shares, you just need to buy whilst it's trending upwards. Only inside traders can predict total bottoms and tops of cycles. Everyone is simply guessing.
 
As if people will have the balls to buy when the market is crashing and the financial markets are imploding?! They didn't have the balls to get into the market in the first place.

This this and this! This is the easiest counter-argument to pull out of your back pocket whenever you meet a doomsdayer.
 
There were bargains after the GFC .

We bought one ( well , two ...)

We offered around 40 % under asking price for two units in Mosman .

When the vendors came back and said they wouldn't accept less than a 30 % discount on their asking price , we were happy to agree .

My wife and I had an discussion about what to offer prior to this .

My wife thought they wouldn't accept an offer anything under an amount which was around 20 % under the asking price , but eventually agreed with my proposal for a 40 % under asking price offer

You never know unless you ask .

Cliff
 
I think if you wait a few years when people's fixed loan runs out and interest rate goes up by that time. There's going to be desperate sellers. There's a lot of people who haven't accommodated for higher interest rates just to get into the market and I can't see rates going up for another year I believe. There has to be a reason for them to lift rates. Australia is going through a good period.
Now that the banks have cracked down on lmi and only allowing 80% funding. Will slow developers/investors which will slow market down.
If you choose to sell now which is high. Your going to buy high. So it will just cancel it's self out.

Just my thoughts
 
With Sydney units not having increased at the same pace as houses perhaps it'll peak later than houses?

Please state if you are generalising, if I go be the link below,Coogee units increased by 19% in the last year whereas houses by 8%!
http://house.ksou.cn/p.php?q=Coogee,+NSW

So perhaps some have some may have not!
Also, Erskineville, Baulkham Hills is up too, so are many other suburbs! Some units have actually outpaced the houses growth (not higher prices but are larger % increases!).
 
Totally agree.

Doomsday spruikers and people who have missed the boat who say they are going to buy everything when it crashes are out of their mind. As if people will have the balls to buy when the market is crashing and the financial markets are imploding?! They didn't have the balls to get into the market in the first place.

No one can predict the bottom or top, it's like buying shares, you just need to buy whilst it's trending upwards. Only inside traders can predict total bottoms and tops of cycles. Everyone is simply guessing.

But Warren Buffett did it. He even says, "wealth is the transfer of money from the impatient to the patient", OR, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked", OR, "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful".
I was buying IPs in QLD in 2000, before the imploding 2003 boom, so it took guts to buy when nothing was happening and the market in general has been dormant for about 8 years?
I think buying while trending upwards may be great for shares, but can be more dangerous for IPs (well it depends where in investment journey one is, right?).:)
 
Please state if you are generalising, if I go be the link below,Coogee units increased by 19% in the last year whereas houses by 8%!
http://house.ksou.cn/p.php?q=Coogee,+NSW

So perhaps some have some may have not!
Also, Erskineville, Baulkham Hills is up too, so are many other suburbs! Some units have actually outpaced the houses growth (not higher prices but are larger % increases!).

Perhaps Coogee is the exception here: for most places I have looked at, house growth has significantly outpaced unit's growth, which could indicate (but who knows) they have some catch up to do.
 
Perhaps Coogee is the exception here: for most places I have looked at, house growth has significantly outpaced unit's growth, which could indicate (but who knows) they have some catch up to do.

Completely Agree... Not generalising. Every Suburb has it's own market, but I see some suburbs where unit's are pretty stagnate in growth.
 
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