Share Market Crash will bring up or down on housing Market

[TheAnalyst]

Hi, all

I believe the share market is heading a crash. In other words, we will be having a long bear market in shares.

What do you think: will these investors leave shares for properties?

 

[alexlee]

Hi, all

I believe the share market is heading a crash. In other words, we will be having a long bear market in shares.

What do you think: will these investors leave shares for properties?

So what's your plan to profit from the bear market, Analyst? Perth property seems to be a bit flat at the moment.
Alex

 

[willair]

Hi, all

I believe the share market is heading a crash. In other words, we will be having a long bear market in shares.

What do you think: will these investors leave shares for properties?

You could always ask yourself the simple question what if both markets
property and the equitys, peak at the same time,high interest rates
kicks in just the combination of these alone will melt the chocolate tea
quicker then water on a BBQ plate..CASH WILL BE King..
willair..imho..
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region3.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a4SwAe6x_Q_8&refer=asia

 

[TheAnalyst]

So what's your plan to profit from the bear market, Analyst? Perth property seems to be a bit flat at the moment.
Alex

Alex, I have been waiting for the crash since I lost $60k in ONE share. I do not see when is the time to get into it, maybe 2 years. Donot know where to put my money in? Of course I would buy bargin houses and make a quick profit.

 

[TheAnalyst]

You could always ask yourself the simple question what if both markets
property and the equitys, peak at the same time,high interest rates
kicks in just the combination of these alone will melt the chocolate tea
quicker then water on a BBQ plate..CASH WILL BE King..
willair..imho..
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region3.html

I donot feel in any property market in Australia or in the world. It will have a crash. It may stablise for few years. I am not meaning if you buy an apartment recommended by The Investors Club. They could drop 20% or 30%. If you buy a house with a land coponent, I do not think it will drop that much. Also importantly, negative gearing has a lot of benefits: expernses, taxes....

 

[alexlee]

I donot feel in any property market in Australia or in the world. It will have a crash. It may stablise for few years. I am not meaning if you buy an apartment recommended by The Investors Club. They could drop 20% or 30%. If you buy a house with a land coponent, I do not think it will drop that much. Also importantly, negative gearing has a lot of benefits: expernses, taxes....

I didn't understand that at all, Analyst. Are you saying there will be a crash? Or that it will just flat for a few years?

Negative gearing, as I'm sure you know, is just to compensate us for our losses, in most cases. It doesn't really make us money, just makes our losses smaller.
Alex

 

[alexlee]

Down 3%. Nikkei, Hang Seng and ASX.
Alex

 

[Ausprop]

Hi, all

I believe the share market is heading a crash. In other words, we will be having a long bear market in shares.

What do you think: will these investors leave shares for properties?

if the market was that predictable we could all retire! comsec are still saying 7000 by mid 2008.

 

[Sunfish]

Hi, all

I believe the share market is heading a crash. In other words, we will be having a long bear market in shares.

Which share market is going to crash? If you trust your judgement short the market. It can be highly profitable. You may be right that financials will find life hard for a few years but resource stocks will head back up soon. IMHO only.

Problems with the banks will impact on property.

 

[TheAnalyst]

if the market was that predictable we could all retire! comsec are still saying 7000 by mid 2008.

Ausporp. I have predicted that share market will have big crash because it has been unjustified up for years. For example, when I bought 2 years ago ANZ was $19 a share. How much is now, $28? Do you really think ANZ $10 worh more than 2 years ago. I do not. So do many other shares. Same to the apartment buildings, it may crash.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Which share market is going to crash? If you trust your judgement short the market. It can be highly profitable. You may be right that financials will find life hard for a few years but resource stocks will head back up soon. IMHO only.

Problems with the banks will impact on property.

Sunfish. I am saying the market is over bought. When idiots can make money in a highly skilled field, it means something is wrong. That is my philosophy. So many overnight WA millionaires. Why? because they have a resource company which does not produce any resource. Few years ago, they even can not survive. ... Is it funny, NO, because people buying on hopes in shares just like dot.com time... An Australian company (I do not remember name) - actually one man company, said produce something could add to the petrol then the petrol will improve 15% efficiency? Would you believe that? Some do, some do not. I believe that is just rubbish. It is said that company bought a sport club in eastern states...

Recently read a book call, rick kids... it tells all.

 

[TheAnalyst]

I didn't understand that at all, Analyst. Are you saying there will be a crash? Or that it will just flat for a few years?

Negative gearing, as I'm sure you know, is just to compensate us for our losses, in most cases. It doesn't really make us money, just makes our losses smaller.
Alex

Sorry Alex, I forgot to delete the . I said a flat few years.

Today RBA follows America lead to pump more money. Would it cause more inflation? If the fat cats are that sure our economy is so good, they should never worry about what happening in US. Honestly, these fat cats have no idea what they are doing. They are the folloers... Not the leaders... That was why I said the RBA should be run by a machine ( using a computer program, and add few parameters such as: inflation> 2, US up, ....) than these fat cats... They do not have brains.

I also find it is interesting in the share market: if US drop 2.5%, then our market will drop about 2.5%. I am wondering how it happens? Whether those institutional sellers watch the ASX screen, when ASX drop 2.5% then stop selling? same to the rising market, when they see the ASX up 2% like US, then they stop buying..

 

[WillG]

Ausporp. I have predicted that share market will have big crash because it has been unjustified up for years. For example, when I bought 2 years ago ANZ was $19 a share. How much is now, $28? Do you really think ANZ $10 worh more than 2 years ago. I do not. So do many other shares. Same to the apartment buildings, it may crash.

A share is worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. Just because a share is labeled ANZ doesn't mean it reflects the value of the company - sure there may be some correlation between the price of the share and the company value but there are no laws to enforce this.

 

[Sheryn]

Re: shares - I believe a few of the bigger boys didn't manage their financial risk and were gready so their fingers got burnt and they had to have a fire sale.

Re: property you get to a point where every one that can afford to is in the market, then there is a small window of opportunity to sell to people who cannot afford to buy a property.

Today $15K was wiped off my share margin loans, I was unemotional, the end result is that I am back where I was on the 16.4.2007. Today is the 10.8.2007 so as I have heard share markets get ahead of themselves.

Also I have heard that the 15th August will be interesting (people can redeem some hedge funds shares ?rumour).

The only way to learn is to experience. The only mistake you make is the one you don't learn from..

PS yeah our shares were down another 20 K as at the 19.7.2007 but we are building an investment property and I amsure the land has gone up 16K.

IMHO Must be in shares and property.


Regards
Sheryn

 

[Sunfish]

the market is over bought. When idiots can make money in a highly skilled field, it means something is wrong. That is my philosophy.

I'm sorry but this is not what I see. (I will only take a little offence at being called an idiot. ) You are taking a simplistic contrarian view to a dangerous extreme.

Seriously, if you are not short the market you don't really believe what you type. If you don't know how to go short, what else don't you know?

Addendum:
It's cool to be a contrarian. Easy! But it takes cojones to back your judgement, and if you haven't put your money where your mouth is I wont take you seriously. I have a significant amount at risk and want to talk to people who understand.

 

[momo]

Sunfish. I am saying the market is over bought. When idiots can make money in a highly skilled field, it means something is wrong. That is my philosophy. So many overnight WA millionaires. Why? because they have a resource company which does not produce any resource. Few years ago, they even can not survive. ... Is it funny, NO, because people buying on hopes in shares just like dot.com time... An Australian company (I do not remember name) - actually one man company, said produce something could add to the petrol then the petrol will improve 15% efficiency? Would you believe that? Some do, some do not. I believe that is just rubbish. It is said that company bought a sport club in eastern states...

Recently read a book call, rick kids... it tells all.

Analyst
Did you buy after 9/11, or did you panic and sell like everyone else?
It is when the market falls(in property or shares) that presents the buying opportunities that will prove profitable over the LONGTERM. Have you read Ben Graham's book on value investing in stocks? It is called 'The Intelligent investor'. It is long-winded, but it is this philosophy(along with Fisher's) that Warren Buffett adheres to.
It is no different to property, it takes courage to defy the herd and keep going forward.
Incidentally, I do not margin loan, as I still feel there is too much downside. I am a conservative investor. I am(and have) willing to borrow for property though.
Steady as she goes, in my opinion. Ignore the media, whil you're at it.

 

[natmarie73]

I would recommend that people read all they can about the 1927 crash. A particularly good book is one that is loosely based around the life of Jesse Livermore - the main character is fictional, but the economic situation is that of the late 1800's to just beyond the 1927 crash. There are a lot of scarey similarities between now and then mainly the easy availability of credit and use of high leverage which was one trigger for that crash.

I'm not saying history will repeat because many things are different now, but there are some very striking similarities that it may pay to be aware of ie don't be leveraging to the hilt in any market.

 

[FHB]

Sunfish. I am saying the market is over bought. When idiots can make money in a highly skilled field, it means something is wrong. That is my philosophy. So many overnight WA millionaires. Why?

I've heard the same thing said about property. Shares are still a long way up on 12 months ago, and earnings are good, I think what we see here is a warning about liquidity, the above comment about leveraging is spot on, IMO....

 

[trendsta]

A crash in shares at this point will signal slowdown in global economy and in particular US. IR may drop and property prices may go up for a period (false boom).. If world economies really are in trouble expect drop in coporate profits. Most companies in last 5 years have been looking mainly at their sales/revenues and not their costs. If this scenario were to eventaute they would start looking at their costs (since sales/revenues dropped due to slowdown) and you can surely expect job losses and pay cuts. You can deduce the impact on housing..

 

[WildDog]

Hi, all

I believe the share market is heading a crash. In other words, we will be having a long bear market in shares.

What do you think: will these investors leave shares for properties?

Crash is good if you are a value investor and have identify a good business to buy so I dont care if we go into melt down mode..

I have 10 or so stocks I want to buy but I'm unwilling to pay at the current price.

I just sit back and drink coffee and watch movie while it continue to trade above my asking price and when it drop to the level I like I'm coming in regardless of of the condition of the market.