so what sort of yields are the entry level units lower north shore? they must be atleast 10% right????
No . Be lucky to get 7 % .
Cliff
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so what sort of yields are the entry level units lower north shore? they must be atleast 10% right????
However, all the other macro indicators are pointing strongly in the wrong direction.
Some here are feeling that we're in the early stages of a boom or at least upturn. I'd need a lot more than just those three indicators to be convinced, and I'd be happy to miss the initial stage of any upturn to be more certain that it really is an upturn and not an aberration brought about by artificial stimulus.
Yes, there's not much point watching the trailing indicators so early in the cycle. They're useful a little later for confirmation. Employment is a trailing indicator, however, job ads is about 6-9 months ahead of employment, and is a leading indicator. Wanna see the ANZ Job Ads trend for Jan '09 and it's correlation with actual jobs 6 months later ? ......Keith....the indicators you are looking at are the leading indicators....the real test is unemployment. Frankly....I have been surprised by how resilient - i.e. how employment is holding in Australia. If this continues....then you lagging indicators will move the property scenario to a new "boom".
Hyper inflation may be the fear in 2+ yrs time, and obviously..... oh no, it's fading,.... sorry crystal balls stuffed again.......Crystal balling....I think the fear is now "hyper inflation"...with all the stimulus around the world...the real risk is prices going into a asset bubble. The real risk is when this bubble explodes in say 3-5 years! Well, lets hope this is not the case..
... as you can see, we're off the scale .
I just find it hard to believe we're heading for a broad based upturn when the big picture points to the worst conditions (sentiment) for a generation...
Sure.... I'm a top down/macro investor who tries to time entry into markets... so is the starter of this thread - seech. However, most here are Somers-type investors - buy when you can afford it & optionally attempt to buy bargains. I haven't bought IP since 2002, I've preferred other asset classes. Somers followers don't have that luxury - they only ever buy IP.As much as I don't like talking about general markets as what does that actually mean to a person buying one property - there seems to be a lot of picking that start of the next boom. Why?
That's the scenario I'd say is most likely. The bottom supported by high affordability & FHOG and the rest of the market will be more or less supported by that. So flat for a while, IRs down a little more, higher unemp, a few more forced sales & bargains appearing. And after the doomsday scenario continues to fail to appear, people will eventually start spending again, the FHOG will be withdrawn, IRs will rise a little, and people will be confident enough to upgrade their PPOR, and the cycle will continue.Could also be that the economy levels out again ie. it's not the doomsday scenario, and it's not a boom - but property prices will steady and experience a flat period for a while or low levels of growth for a few years like in the '90s.
Agreed. The RBA will be watching closely - if people start spending & inflation threatens,they may be able to preempt any boom. I'd say flat for a while, although medians will fall a little because of lots of activity at the bottom end, and lower prices at the top.Now I'm not saying this is what I think is going to happen, like I said entire markets are not my area - but so many people seem to think that if property holds out in the current environment, then the next step is a big boom again straight away. Not necessarily.
This is a interesting read..willair..
http://www.rba.gov.au/MonetaryPolicy/RBABoardMinutes/2009/rba_board_min_03022009.htm
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Sure.... I'm a top down/macro investor who tries to time entry into markets... so is the starter of this thread - seech. However, most here are Somers-type investors - buy when you can afford it & optionally attempt to buy bargains. I haven't bought IP since 2002, I've preferred other asset classes. Somers followers don't have that luxury - they only ever buy IP.
The downside (for me) of the strategy of seeking out bargains regardless of the time in the cycle is that they may get an instant 20% equity, but they then get flat for N years until the cycle turns. But Somers followers don't care, they are long term buy & never sell, so it makes sense to buy when they can afford to - it often means buy when affordability is high (like now). Some of the more closed mind posters here fail to recognise it's a valid strategy .
Sorry Dave, i fixed up the link,i'm new to all this,plus i think Glenn Stevens is a very smart man.. willairI've read better