Somersoft leading indicator through the roof

Discussion in 'Investor Psychology' started by see_change, 10th Aug, 2013.

  1. hobo-jo

    hobo-jo Not a bear just a realist

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    They almost look in lockstep over the last 10 years (timing perspective, with rate of growth being key difference).

    [​IMG]

    I agree there can be times where prices divorce from economic reality, but reality usually catches up. I don't think a boom in Adelaide is likely in the short term.
     
  2. rizzle

    rizzle Member

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    Is there somewhere we can get access to historical forum user activity statistics (e.g. number online/new signups/avg. no. posts per day)? Would love to graph that against a market price index.
     
  3. devank

    devank Why why why?

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    Chart showing the all city indexes compared to Sydney's index is attached.

    It is all part of the cycle :)
     

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  4. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Great graph

    Shows seven years of Sydney underperformance , now playing catch up .

    Pity all the others seem to be going down in unison . Makes it harder to pick were next .

    Cliff
     
  5. devank

    devank Why why why?

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    COMPARED to Sydney, others are not performing as well as Sydney in recent years.
    It is important to note that the downwards trending graph doesn't mean their prices are falling.

    Hope I didn't confuse anyone with that graph :)
     
  6. hugh72

    hugh72 Member

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    If Sydney is growing rapidly the graph would have to show a divergence between the index line and the other capitals
     
  7. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    I did realise that the price was going down relative to Sydney .

    I'm a believer in Sydney leads and the others follow .

    Cliff
     
  8. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Mm

    Doesn't it ?

    Cliff
     
  9. MTR

    MTR Bling Bling

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    Devank
    This is why I never pay attention to charts because I dont understand it.
    Does it show Perth market boomed between 2011-2013 if not then its wrong
     
  10. D.T.

    D.T. Property Lookerafterer

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    :confused:
    Its a sydney chart
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Bling Bling

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    Ok, makes no sense to me. I'll leave the charts to the experts, not sure what you use these for, have an idea but all to their own, keep on charting
     
  12. Singo

    Singo Member

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    Yep, the charts are for experts and experts can interpret as they wish. As per the above chart, Sydney is going to crash. Nope, all other states gonna boom :cool:
     
  13. MTR

    MTR Bling Bling

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    Ok is this how you intrepet this chart, then those following charts are seriously screwed
     
  14. hobo-jo

    hobo-jo Not a bear just a realist

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    The chart shows the indices of a Sydney house (as the horizontal blue line) with the performance of all other capitals in comparison, the other capitals out perform (Sydney) over 2003 - 2007 and then have under performed since. If Sydney is to see a similar ratio to the other capitals as it's 2003 peak then prices (in Sydney) may still have some way to go higher... or alternatively prices in Sydney could fall at a lower rate than in other capitals to achieve the same outcome.
     
  15. hugh72

    hugh72 Member

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    Yes but you commented that the others were going down in unison which isn't what it is showing, it's shows Sydney's price relative to the other markets and the rapid divergence between them price wise
     
  16. devank

    devank Why why why?

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    Thanks for explaining it much better than me :eek:

    I put the source on the graph. Simply divide each index by Sydney's index. Now we can easily (some people) compare other cities to Sydney.
     
  17. rizzle

    rizzle Member

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    Devank: how about a comparative chart with Brisbane as the index?
     
  18. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Sorry , I meant that they were going down relative to Sydney , which also means that Sydney is going up relative to everywhere else .

    While I did comment they were coming down in unison , that's not strictly true .

    It shows Perth and Darwin had more recent peaks and are coming down more recently , faster , so maybe not the next place to look .

    Brisbane and Melbourne are tracking together and historically move after Sydney and then Adelaide , and then Hobart and Canberra are at the bottom of the pile as basket cases ....

    Cliff
     
  19. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    This has been suggested in the past and I think sim has posted something many years ago .

    Personally I think he keeps that info to himself. So he has his own private leading indicator so he knows when to buy ...:cool: ( just in case anyone thinks that's serious , I'm joking ...sim knows that ... don't you sim ....:eek: ....)

    Cliff
     
  20. hugh72

    hugh72 Member

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    Here's hoping your right and history repeats