Somersoft leading indicator through the roof

Canberra auction clearance rate is higher than Brisbane... what does this mean?
Very few or should I say generally only up market properties are sold this way in BN? The sample size is quite small relative to the size of the SE Qld market IMO
 
How about this one. Houses in the ACT had better growth than Brisbane for the following periods: 10 years, Jan 14-15, Last Quarter, Last Month. But Canberra is flat and Brisbane is going up? Hmm.
 

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Can't comment on the ACT market 6% growth in a quarter? but why BN has underperformed over the last 7 years I think I could explain.
 
I'm just curious why some people are a little gung-ho on Brisbane in the absence of any indicators that it should increase in value. Especially as some people are talking down the Canbrrrr market.
 
Trying to be ahead of the market I suppose and where else are all those CGs from Sydney going to find a home.
when FHB are priced out, it can become compelling to move and be able to buy elsewhere
 
Trying to be ahead of the market I suppose and where else are all those CGs from Sydney going to find a home.
I guess that's my point. These forums preach education, research, crunching the numbers. But in the case of Brisbane it seems that's all thrown out the window, and despite it being the 1st state to lose it's international AAA credit rating, massive debt and unemployment on the rise 'it's going to be next'. Usually those 'in the know' who are ahead of the market are looking at some indicators rather than just because it should, or it looks affordable compared to Sydney.
Is it a case that's it's all BS and no one know's anything, they just talk it up and hope for the best? ;)

when FHB are priced out, it can become compelling to move and be able to buy elsewhere
And it might be cheaper to buy, but where are they going to work?
 
I completely agree with you Azazel - seemed to be quite an assumption that the boom would be similar to the 2001-2003 boom.
Has the ripple effect gone any further than Newcastle and Wollongong?
Qld is still not quite back on track. There certainly hasn't been a boom yet and there must be quite a few people holding on very tightly - I know a few.
Unemployment is high - mainly because of the lack of tourism.
The floods were really devastating and how can we forget them?
With the AUD back down in the comfort zone and the rest of the world starting to pick up again, we might see more tourism and more international education.
Not really sure what else there is but I suppose confidence will increase there when the tourists return.
Personally, I don't think the recovery is very far off. This could be one of the very few times that the experts have given a tip well in advance (unwittingly) of the heat rather than while it's happening.

when FHB are priced out, it can become compelling to move and be able to buy elsewhere
I'm hoping this gets some of the crazy crowd out of Sydney into other capital cities and regions. Sydney is beautiful but so are other places. The internet has made such a difference to the regions. You really can live a good life in a great house with nice neighbours.
 
Interesting representation.

Because you're taking on of the current Middle performers , it spreads the rest out more .sydney going up

Perth and Darwin coming down from above . Adelaide ... And Hobart Canberra well...

Cliff
 
I guess that's my point. These forums preach education, research, crunching the numbers. But in the case of Brisbane it seems that's all thrown out the window, and despite it being the 1st state to lose it's international AAA credit rating, massive debt and unemployment on the rise 'it's going to be next'. Usually those 'in the know' who are ahead of the market are looking at some indicators rather than just because it should, or it looks affordable compared to Sydney.
Is it a case that's it's all BS and no one know's anything, they just talk it up and hope for the best? ;)



And it might be cheaper to buy, but where are they going to work?
Good question,but there is always employment in Qld Labor told everyone that have plans in place,the prices inner city are still going up how far that's anyone guess..
 
The floods were really devastating and how can we forget them?
Just speaking to an insurance builder today he said the 20 minute hail storm has outdone the floods dollar wise in the private sector, in brisbane at least.

Got to say pre Xmas things where moving in a very positive direction in a the inner ring, not sure what it's done since.

Seemed to be a shortage of listings which may have helped. What are listing numbers like in Sydney.
 
I guess that's my point. These forums preach education, research, crunching the numbers. But in the case of Brisbane it seems that's all thrown out the window, and despite it being the 1st state to lose it's international AAA credit rating, massive debt and unemployment on the rise 'it's going to be next'. Usually those 'in the know' who are ahead of the market are looking at some indicators rather than just because it should, or it looks affordable compared to Sydney.
Is it a case that's it's all BS and no one know's anything, they just talk it up and hope for the best? ;)



And it might be cheaper to buy, but where are they going to work?
The credit rating was lost in part due to massive infrastructure spending, while I agree unemployment may be rising it isn't at excessively high levels. Migration of people from interstate can generate growth to some degree, I don't think anyone is suggesting it is going to have a massive boom but growth is likely after a period of underperformance, if you read some of John Edwards research it indicates similar . I like to have my investments well diversified across regions and states to capture growth when it happens
 
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I guess that's my point. These forums preach education, research, crunching the numbers. But in the case of Brisbane it seems that's all thrown out the window, and despite it being the 1st state to lose it's international AAA credit rating, massive debt and unemployment on the rise 'it's going to be next'. Usually those 'in the know' who are ahead of the market are looking at some indicators rather than just because it should, or it looks affordable compared to Sydney.
It really comes down to your view point . It's easy to look at fundamentals and say why this area should move and that area shouldn't .

If you've spent anytime studying shares , you will have quickly learnt that while fundamentals will have some impact , at times shares and the market will move for no other reason other than sentiment .

The property market is the same . Fundamentals play a role , but when the market is moving emotions take over .

It's easy to watch and say it doesn't make sense , but IHMO , the strongest moves don't have much to do with the fundamentals of an area .

Cliff
 
Azazel - I do data modelling for living. My employer is paying me decent money to come up with 'predictions' based on available data. TBH I trust experienced people's (who knows the subject matter) gut feel more than what the data is telling me. There are so many factors affect an outcome. Generally, we simply don't (or can't) measure everything to estimate that 'outcome'.
 
I'm just curious why some people are a little gung-ho on Brisbane in the absence of any indicators that it should increase in value. Especially as some people are talking down the Canbrrrr market.
Pete Wargent (retired accountant/economics blogger) touches on the 'why' of this quite a bit. Really interesting and insightful blog. From memory the population projections and price lag of Brisbane (compared to other cities) were both arguments in his viewpoint (don't quote me on that though).
 
The property market is the same . Fundamentals play a role , but when the market is moving emotions take over .

It's easy to watch and say it doesn't make sense , but IHMO , the strongest moves don't have much to do with the fundamentals of an area .

Cliff
I agree to some extent but the stock market is far more volatile due to the ease of entry and exit. An emotional property buyer will still want proximity to work/transport/schools etc. which are more often than not the areas which are in shorter supply/higher demand = prices go up. That suggests to me that the strong moves are correlated to the fundamentals.

For example, you're far more likely to see a market frenzy in Essendon (Vic), than you are in some new estate out in whoop whoop with loads of land supply. That's my basic understanding anyway.
 
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