State of the ASX200

[D.T.]

Hi gang,

A certain author I subscribe to has suggested selling off all ASX200 stocks and returning to 100% cash as he believes dark and stormy skies are approaching.

He's basing this opinion on the widening sideways pattern of the Australian market and the downwards patterns of Shanghai and London markets.

I'm curious who here agrees with this outlook or opposes it, and what information they're basing it off.

 

[matto_]

Elliot Wave theory has been calling a major top for a little while now (coming to the final points currently) - this would have impacts worldwide.

 

[turk]

Would that be Alan Hull, who at the same time is suggesting hedging your portfolio through his new managed account service.

He also hedges his prediction

"I think time's nearly up for global equity markets as they are set to break out very shortly. My money (literally) is on a break out to the downside but whatever happens I think we are going to see some action very soon..."

I like some of his commentary, but it is mainly for short term trading.

 

[HomePage]

One of the Money Morning mob (Vern) also speaks of such a major share market correction. But then again, another of them (Kris) reckons it's sunshine, lollipops and rainbows for the ASX200 on its way to 7000 by 2015. I have trouble working out which one to believe. Time will tell I guess.

 

[The Fence]

Switched our supers strategies to the more conservative side just last week after a being in high growth for 12 months.

cant go up forever.

 

[D.T.]

Elliot Wave theory has been calling a major top for a little while now (coming to the final points currently) - this would have impacts worldwide.

Got a screenshot of this?

 

[see_change]

I subscribe ( or should I say my SMSF) subscribes to an information service and we received a warning last night , of a potential drop if certain levels were breached. The author uses Elliot wave as well as your more typical TA . I think there is similar chats on forums at the moment .

So it could go up or could go down .....

I think people are tightening their stops at the moment .

On a more sinister level I often find I start thinking about getting back at the market , just as it turns down and I have been think of getting back into shares in recent weeks ..... So I would be doubly nervous .

Cliff

 

[MIW]

Hi gang,

A certain author I subscribe to has suggested selling off all ASX200 stocks and returning to 100% cash as he believes dark and stormy skies are approaching.

He's basing this opinion on the widening sideways pattern of the Australian market and the downwards patterns of Shanghai and London markets.

I'm curious who here agrees with this outlook or opposes it, and what information they're basing it off.

I sold out all the stocks sometime ago, just look at Japan, about 25 years up the next 25 years down....anything is possible, right?
Do you have 25 years to ride it out, well that's for you to answer???
As long as you protect your capital, and you have TOTAL control of your stocks you can set stop losses and get out, if not then perhaps education is the key?
No one has a crystal ball for the future, so you MUST have a strategy to protect your capital, it doesn't matter what entity it's in, right?
Good Luck in what you decide....

 

[turk]

I sold out all the stocks sometime ago, just look at Japan, about 25 years up the next 25 years down....anything is possible, right?
....

Why not trade the trend?

 

[charlieandkath]

My theory is the share market will keep going sideways at best as people swap to SMSF's and put the money into property. Basically this is a switching of funds from share market to property.

 

[Shaneelastic]

id be happy to hold 5% + yield 100% franked shares in a SMSF at the present point, you go to cash you lose half your income in SMSF pension mode.

 

[turk]

My theory is the share market will keep going sideways at best as people swap to SMSF's and put the money into property. Basically this is a switching of funds from share market to property.

Keep going sideways?

Up circa 18% in the last 12 months, 40% in the last 2 years and 75% over the last 4.5 years.

 

[topcropper]

I'm just a simple buy and hold bloke. I like to top up when things are crook. I'll just keep holding all I've got.

After holding right through the big 08 crash, nothing would faze me now. Got two shares now that are almost 10 baggers. SRX and RHC.


See ya's.

 

[charlieandkath]

Keep going sideways?

Up circa 18% in the last 12 months, 40% in the last 2 years and 75% over the last 4.5 years.

Yeah and still down circa 25% in 6 years

 

[charlieandkath]

Got two shares now that are almost 10 baggers. SRX and RHC.


See ya's.

I thought 10 bags would be very disappointing for a bloke like you. Imagine if they were 90 baggers like my CSS.

 

[D.T.]

So now were bragging about the size of our bag?

 

[turk]

Yeah and still down circa 25% in 6 years

Yep, but plenty of decent bounces up and down during those 6 years.

 

[TPI]

Alan Hull is suggesting a downwards breakout.
Colin Nicholson is suggesting a possible upwards breakout.
Robert Vagg (who writes articles for AIA) is suggesting a possible upwards breakout.

They are all market timers and can't all be right, so it will be interesting to see what eventuates.

 

[charlieandkath]

Yep, but plenty of decent bounces up and down during those 6 years.

Yeah so going sideways

 

[redwing]

I'm just a simple buy and hold bloke. I like to top up when things are crook. I'll just keep holding all I've got.

After holding right through the big 08 crash, nothing would faze me now. Got two shares now that are almost 10 baggers. SRX and RHC.


See ya's.

Hi TC,

As part of our strategy we ensure we've got some funds available should there be a discount on shares, we never know what's coming on the markets

How long have you held SRX & RHC? Nice run on both over the long term, we've always stayed away from direct medical shares due to volatility, but you'd be happy having held those