Who?? And why is his opinion worth any bandwidth
I had the same thought about your comment
Steve Keen predicts interest rate cuts in 2015 as well
- Thread starter srini
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I had the same thought about your comment
Too funny, predictions were reasonable... Really.....you forgot to mention a minor issue they were wrong.
I had the same thought about your comment
Geez someone got up on the wrong side of the bed
When I got up yesterday morning I looked out the window and there were big black rain clouds heading my way. I changed my plans for the day but the rain never came but skirted around the peninsula.
A reasonable prediction given the conditions at the time.... but I got it wrong.
I note that virtually all the commentators that have made predictions around the GFC regularly get taken to the woodshed because they weren't exactly right or the timing is lousy or they failed to predict other aspects of these events so are inherently wrong.
But here's the thing. When you stack their predictions up against all those who try and convince you it's all much ado about nothing you start to get a fairly clear indication of who's more correct than the other.
The chances of making an accurate well timed prediction are almost zero but that's not the point. Predictions imply something is likely to happen with a reasonable amount of certainty given information available at the time.
Keen is but one of many contrarian economic/financial commentators who predict a range of things with a common theme. They get things wrong often enough but they also get many things right.
Nope but extraneous and derogatory off the cuff remarks don't add anything to a discussion especially when it's your first comment on a thread.
I imagine if you walked up to a group in the real world and threw in a flippant comment you might get more than just a verbal rebuke.
The big question is will Greece stay in the euro zone,and how much manipulation of accounting data has happened,whatever Keen talks about go the exact opposite no matter what the data sellers tell you..
Yep, that's about right - predictions, we agree on something, its hit and miss, that's why in the main I ignore them and focus on what is happening on the ground. After all economists are only human.
Perhaps you should revisit the many predictions of D&G you have made over the last x years you have been posting, we have had at least 3 property booms during this period.
Here we go again, 10 reasons why economists always get it wrong
http://danerwin.typepad.com/my_weblog/2011/02/ten-reasons-why-economists-get-it-wrong.html
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You obviously haven't been here that long
i think you might be a bit too sensitive for the Internet if my comments are derogatory
Its obvious you are butthurt by the comments and took it personally. This guy is full of garbage and judging by your reaction you must be his love child or something
My feelings are more common here then you probably think
Many have proven correct and those that haven't eventuated as yet are still valid for the current conditions. The advice I have proffered to PI's is not about exiting the market or that PI is a fools activity but that investing conditions are experiencing a paradigm shift compared to the previous 50 years and that risks are rising exponentially. Given that one should be more judicious and position themselves to withstand anything that might come. How they position will differ depending on their risk appetite and balance sheet strength
Most investors have a reasonable exit strategy. PI's rarely do.
It's not personal to me. It's derogatory in that you slag Keen with nothing to back it. Just one of those stupid flippant remarks that people make to look as if they know what they're talking about when they don't. It's the kind of remark that makes it difficult to take anything you say seriously.
...and the above comment only reinforces that sentiment.
Possibly. There is a gen pool in every forum that barely has the IQ of a bean sprout. From your comments so far I suspect that's where you reside.
Your choice... intelligent contribution or immature prattle.
Government revenue numbers suggest it was bumpier than we remember.
What you did not do was to court significant media attention to yourself when you made that assumption and call it a definite.
Great post.
To continue on this theme, Freckle also didn't sell all his possessions and build an ark.
Nope...Bureau of Meteorology did that....
No but I changed my plans for the day.. if we scaled it then we're in the same ball park.
The reality is we all look at the world from our personal view, interpret it, try and figure out what's likely to happen next and act according to our own conclusions.
Part of that assessment is watching what others are doing (herd mentality).
There was an interesting doco a few years back that looked at why certain personality types had higher survival rates in a crises while the majority didn't.
One of the key findings was that they saw threats earlier and identified escape routes quicker than the average person. They also had much higher motivational levels that drove them through particularly difficult challenges like hypothermia, injury etc.
My personality type is likely to come out much more intact after an event than the average punter. The so called missed opportunities may simply enable a more sustainable position when adversity strikes.
Keen may well fit into that category. Didn't get as wealthy as he could have but didn't get wiped out either.
Keen sold his Sydney home very publicly, and since then it's risen 50+% in value.
I find it interesting that Keen was in his early 50s and yet had little real equity when he sold. I think there's some clues to his mindset there.
This is a quote from the movie American-Sniper,there are three types of people in the world the sheep, the sheepherders , then the wolves..
Not that hard to scale that down to within every investment area,unless you are a lone wolf.
.https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/...LaM1ykgaJ6zIKGzULomSDZ_vi1M0-yWu-qZUqNMFqI2aB
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Most investors have a reasonable exit strategy. PI's rarely do.[/QUOTE said:At the end of the day regardless of asset class managing risk is part of the game, those who ignore this will suffer the consequence if the market turns.
Clearly the market is changing - 2015 I believe will be a bumpy ride... "another predication".
So how should investors cover their **** -
managing debt/LVR ratio, this could mean selling down when the market is hot, reducing debt.
Ensure the portfolio is not highly ve- geared
Don't jump into markets that have been running hot for too long as you could be jumping in close to peak and you could end up with a loan great than the value of the property when it falls back.
MTR
From what I can tell the Keen's of this world aren't really into personal wealth. I tend to think he's more into personal academic credibility and inventing/discovering/understanding, in his case, economics. He's a frenetic rooster and if born today they'd be shoving ritalin down his throat by the handful and packing him off to school for ADHD kids.
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