GC would've been smacked down GFC or no GFC.... the cycle is so consistent over there... always the same (emotions taking over real life practicality)
Steve Keen - The Loser
- Thread starter Harris
- Start date
GC would've been smacked down GFC or no GFC.... the cycle is so consistent over there... always the same (emotions taking over real life practicality)
The question is whether Steve Keen is wrong, or wrong on the timing. A lot of the risks that he identified are still present. It's also possible that house prices will move back inline with earnings through a different mechanism, such as high inflation.
My personal take is that there are still a lot of risks out there (e.g. slow global recovery, double dip recession, and the GFC not actually being over), so it doesn't hurt to be cautious right now. Particularly as there don't seem to be any real bargains in general asset classes.
(And gold could well be in a big bubble, just to confound the Doom and Gloomers.
)
My personal take is that there are still a lot of risks out there (e.g. slow global recovery, double dip recession, and the GFC not actually being over), so it doesn't hurt to be cautious right now. Particularly as there don't seem to be any real bargains in general asset classes.
(And gold could well be in a big bubble, just to confound the Doom and Gloomers.
)
It’s earned him some notoriety
But as they say, there’s no such thing as bad publicity, he’s received a truckload of publicity and media attention, don’t be surprised if you see him next year in “Dancing with the Stars” or “Celebrity Master Chef”
Or maybe .... "The Biggest Loser" ......
Martin
He should of known better but he had his 15mins and as much as I trashed his point of view, I do feel sorry for him selling his Alexandria/Waterloo apartment in fear of the big downturn. If BIS Shrapnel is right and Syd goes up 20% in the next 3 years and his savings diminish with increased rents - he will never own again - I just hope no-one took his advice and did the same.
Jane
Jane
I don't doubt the potential for his prediction to come true. Just as I don't doubt that there is a probability earth gets hit by a meteor, but on the balance of probabilities he should have seen the different factors affecting Australia.
He wasn't alone shouting that the sky was falling, just the only super public one to put his money where his mouth was, so I feel sorry for him having been so publicly humiliated but as 'mystery' says, all good publicity.
If it had been a slightly different world and our debt outweighed our luck then he could have been right and would be revered as an economic god. I think a lot of these experts prognosticate for posterity in the hope that their theory will win out and they'll end up quoted like Keynes et al.
Hiowever I get really irritated by the doom and gloom brigade predicting outcomes that will mean the end of life as we know it here, starvation, violence and civil unrest at a minimum, which Keen's prediction coming true would have meant. At least he has owned up to his position and is getting ready for his hike, unlike some of the others who say 'just wait' for the hyperinflation and stock market collapse, assuming they will be immune to the violence and despair that would follow.
As history shows, economic collapse means no good for anyone, except a very tiny percentage of the oligarchy, and even their heads land in baskets sometimes.
Reseach has shown that the less the gap between rich and poor, the less social disharmony and greater prosperity overall. Australia used to be like that but now the gap is widening. Something to be aware of.
He wasn't alone shouting that the sky was falling, just the only super public one to put his money where his mouth was, so I feel sorry for him having been so publicly humiliated but as 'mystery' says, all good publicity.
If it had been a slightly different world and our debt outweighed our luck then he could have been right and would be revered as an economic god. I think a lot of these experts prognosticate for posterity in the hope that their theory will win out and they'll end up quoted like Keynes et al.
Hiowever I get really irritated by the doom and gloom brigade predicting outcomes that will mean the end of life as we know it here, starvation, violence and civil unrest at a minimum, which Keen's prediction coming true would have meant. At least he has owned up to his position and is getting ready for his hike, unlike some of the others who say 'just wait' for the hyperinflation and stock market collapse, assuming they will be immune to the violence and despair that would follow.
As history shows, economic collapse means no good for anyone, except a very tiny percentage of the oligarchy, and even their heads land in baskets sometimes.
Reseach has shown that the less the gap between rich and poor, the less social disharmony and greater prosperity overall. Australia used to be like that but now the gap is widening. Something to be aware of.
DINGDINGDINGDINGDING!!!!!!! WE HAVE A WINNER!
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=487720&postcount=17
^^^ right here ^^^
i knew this would come up.
it's a simple thing really - inflation erodes debt and puts upward pressure on wages because comparitive wages buy less.
inflation also INCREASES construction price, therefore replacement value, therefore overall value for older stock.
newflash - keen didn't say "i'll be right in ten years through hyperinflation". you're constantly looking over your shoulder. "my wages today can buy a house 10 years ago - values are back in line...." ? ? ? ? W-w-w-w-what...?!?!?!?
he an economist who rents and still has a J-O-B. speaks volumes, really.
The question is whether Steve Keen is wrong, or wrong on the timing. A lot of the risks that he identified are still present. It's also possible that house prices will move back inline with earnings through a different mechanism, such as high inflation.
bwahahaha! did i not, not 6 months ago, that someone would say "just his timing was off and inflation would make sure he was right"....?!?!?!
My personal take is that there are still a lot of risks out there (e.g. slow global recovery, double dip recession, and the GFC not actually being over), so it doesn't hurt to be cautious right now. Particularly as there don't seem to be any real bargains in general asset classes.
it doesn't hurt to be cautious full stop, bull market or not. you can still lose BIG TIME in a bull market. look at all those landbankers in Byford WA that made no money for 80% of the boom then missed thier window to sell...?
(And gold could well be in a big bubble, just to confound the Doom and Gloomers.
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=487720&postcount=17
^^^ right here ^^^
i knew this would come up.
it's a simple thing really - inflation erodes debt and puts upward pressure on wages because comparitive wages buy less.
inflation also INCREASES construction price, therefore replacement value, therefore overall value for older stock.
newflash - keen didn't say "i'll be right in ten years through hyperinflation". you're constantly looking over your shoulder. "my wages today can buy a house 10 years ago - values are back in line...." ? ? ? ? W-w-w-w-what...?!?!?!?
he an economist who rents and still has a J-O-B. speaks volumes, really.
Well I hope he's happy with himself.
He probarbly aided the decisions of many unwary home owners to sell up and move back into rental accomodation.
What a stupid thing to say. I knew things would keep on moving up as normal and I'm not even an "expert".. I did somehow know that everything would be just fine and I still feel the same way.
The next big doom and gloom subject will probarbly be interest rates heading toward 7%. Whats next..
He probarbly aided the decisions of many unwary home owners to sell up and move back into rental accomodation.
What a stupid thing to say. I knew things would keep on moving up as normal and I'm not even an "expert".. I did somehow know that everything would be just fine and I still feel the same way.
The next big doom and gloom subject will probarbly be interest rates heading toward 7%. Whats next..
I feel sorry for the people who may have sold their properties because they listened to a so-called 'expert'. They paid selling costs, brought forward CGT and now they've seen the price of the house they just sold going up, PLUS they now have to pay entry costs to get back in again.
People make their own decisions. I know that. But 'Professor of economics, Academic...' does carry a lot of weight in some people's minds.
He does deserve the penalty of losing the bet. After all he got a lot of free publicity out of it. I'm sure it was worth some $$$ to him.
People make their own decisions. I know that. But 'Professor of economics, Academic...' does carry a lot of weight in some people's minds.
He does deserve the penalty of losing the bet. After all he got a lot of free publicity out of it. I'm sure it was worth some $$$ to him.
Maybe we should all check our tenants names, one of us might have him
Definitely kudos to his landlord as a reward.
bye
I think he is renting my granny flat at mt druitt.
'Experts' are a dime a dozen when they do not even know that historically since Keynes Australian governments of all politically hues support residential property markets when they want to expand the economy because it makes political sense and usually good government.
No, commander keen could be controlled.
