Steve Keen-where are you now?

[Rolf Latham]

Talking about frugal , how's the car going Rolf

Cliff

better : )

have the same dual cab diesel truck from new since 2005, so a little less frugal these days.

ta

rolf

 

[oracle]

In defence of Steve Keen,

He does raise some real and valid issues.
His problem was to be so self confident in his beliefs that he put absolute time frames to his thought process.

This was incredibly na?ve in my opinion.

Markets are not two dimensional.

Its why the truly inspirational investors such as Warren Buffett keep harping on that they cannot predict how markets will evolve in the short term.

There WILL be a time when Steve Keen is correct, when that will be I don't know (and its not just because markets will 'fall' at some point, some of his logic has good underlying logic to it).

For myself I think with the Australian property market there are 4 over riding forces that have delayed any substantial contraction in residential property prices:
(a) interest rates on a longer basis are still trending down (this is a long term down trend starting from the early 1990's)
(b) Population is still experiencing sound growth
(c) Australia is rather unique in that its actually hard to 'toss' properties, because of high transactional costs (essentially stamp duties)
(d) Another Australian uniqueness: its actually quite hard to rapidly increase supply

Even though I agree the above factors play a part but IMHO the most important factor that prevents house price correction is the unemployment rate. We have been fortunately (thanks part to China) that our unemployment rate has been between 5%-6% for past several years.

I think we would have a serious correction if our unemployment rate went up to 8%-9%

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[see_change]

I think I heard this story the other day!

pinkboy

My recollection is that Rolf prided himself with that ability to be able to double the value of his car every time he filled the tank , though I do recall it struggling to get up our drive way .

Cliff

 

[pinkboy]

My recollection is that Rolf prided himself with that ability to be able to double the value of his car every time he filled the tank , though I do recall it struggling to get up our drive way .

Cliff

Yep, the one and the same story!

pinkboy

 

[topcropper]

Ikea? I dream of having an Ikea desk!

I picked my desks up for $10 each !

$10 desk? Luxury!!!

My desk is the floor. Dirt too. In an old septic tank.


See ya's.

 

[Rolf Latham]

My recollection is that Rolf prided himself with that ability to be able to double the value of his car every time he filled the tank , though I do recall it struggling to get up our drive way .

Cliff

the good thing about that driveway was that I didnt need help to clutch start the old bus.

The family hack is a 5 star safety rated 7 + airbags thing - frugality is good until extreme choices impact seriously on your safety.


ta
rolf

 

[see_change]

Rolf

The other good thing about your old car is if you'd been in a bad accident , you wouldn't have to had worry about how expensive rehab can be....

Nice to hear it's been updated

I seem to remember we had to do one push though to get it rolling down hill once . The top of the drive was almost flat .

Cliff

 

[The Fence]

Back on topic....

RBA downplays property bubble.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has downplayed fears of a property bubble, saying some rise in house prices is part of the normal cyclical dynamic.

While Prof Keen is still keen on a bubble and has been for many years now.


I guess he will be right one day....

 

[Colin Rice]

aussie-john-takes-aim-at-steve-keen-in-property-punchup

http://www.brokernews.com.au/news/b...ail&utm_term=0_7af1e9f6de-33fffb9b1d-43923257

 

[Player]

...............While Prof Keen is still keen on a bubble and has been for many years now.


I guess he will be right one day....

He will. That will be when he re-enters the property market at the peak and while it takes a breather or a bit of a re-trace for a few years and he sees sideways movement (or negative WRT inflation), he will then sell of in the trough and lament a bubble as prices start rising on their next up-cycle.

 

[tambourineman]

aussie-john-takes-aim-at-steve-keen-in-property-punchup

http://www.brokernews.com.au/news/b...ail&utm_term=0_7af1e9f6de-33fffb9b1d-43923257

Lol like he would say anything different

 

[MTR]

Lol like he would say anything different

Lets stir the pot....

If I was a betting woman I know who I would be backing, the one who makes money

 

[BayView]

"However, Keen remained adamant that Australia is in the midst of an unsustainable growth period throughout the debate."

Hate to say it, but I tend to agree. Happy to be proved wrong though.

What's changed/improved to sustain the growth?

Unemployment - up and going more up.
Wages - not going up by much - across the board (except for many of us here in our SS wealth/career fishbowl)
Business confidence - down, less manufacturing, retail sales, etc.
Access to finance - still more difficult since GFC for the vast majority across the board (not applicable to all of us here on SS in our wealth fishbowl)
Aussie dollar - staying high - affecting tourism/jobs/business/exports.

My take is based on anecdote and word of mouth from the various folk I know in the various industries.

Of course; there will be pockets that are/will be doing ok.

The two factors holding the whole thing together are immigration/population increases and low interest rates.

 

[Shadow]

Steve said this week 'We're in a bubble and it will go on for quite some time'

So he's no longer expecting falls any time soon.

 

[MTR]

Whose paying attention to what Keen has to say??? Remember his the guy that got it wrong.

 

[willair]

Steve said this week 'We're in a bubble and it will go on for quite some time'

So he's no longer expecting falls any time soon.

It,s not as spread out as a few years ago,, and what Mr Keen said a few years back was only a probability about what may in his mindset may or may not happen in the future,,because he was looking at the his idea on the observed past,anything that has already taken place is on the 1000%
probability list,,i know only a small amount of people that invest in 'RE" and when you look at the average of people that invest and those that succeeded when they buy when they sell the numbers are not that high
..imho..