Sub 250k market in melbourne, looking for CG not yeild.

Hey guys

Im looking to buy my first PPOR house (not interested in units/townhouses) in melbourne area. Currently live in glenroy, working in CBD.

I was hoping to borrow alittle more - around 320k - to get into west heidleberg, but thats not going to happen just yet.

Due to low income im priced into Dandy(too far) or Broadmedows. I grew up around essendon/broady area so know the bad 'pockets' and was wondering if anyone had any other suggestions for my price range. I know the state government is looking to turn broady into a mini CBD in 20years or so with its own tram network etc as the population grows to support it which perked my ears up. It will take a generation or 2 to loose the reputation but heres to hoping it can get somemore short term growth.

In terms of growth, the last 5 years, the first 3 were %0 or negative growth but the last 2 is over %15pa. yeilds will obviously be pretty low. Im going to pull equity in the 2nd maybe 3rd year to finance 2nd place.

I dont think I can buy closer to the city for the money.

I want to stay away from the west side as atleast the north has some growth pushing over from NE & N areas, subrubs like St Albans/Sunshine are surrounded by low cg low yeild.

Does anyone have a way to search melbournes suburbs by 1: Price 2: distance from city. Ive been googling for days and cant find anything. eg: 18km from city under 250k etc.

Thanks for reading :)
 
Without having access to an indusrty database like RPData etc.....maybe just buy a copy of API magazine. The back pages have all the 'burbs with median prices and CG. Punch them into Excel for sorting or just do a manual calc.
 
Hi Learnings

Have you tried domain.com.au - there is a Suburb Snapshot link which can be quite helpful

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/sn...et2:04-03:dollar_house_balance:suburbsnapshot

The blurb says:

The Home Price Guide® Suburb Snapshot gives you, for free, the very latest residential property market statistics available nationwide. The Suburb Snapshot includes:

The latest median prices
Long term suburb price performance
Days on market
Auction clearance rates
Vendor discounting
In addition, Home Price Guide® rates your suburb compared to other surrounding suburbs in your region. All statistics are split between houses and units and are based on a six months by six months time comparison.



The Postcode Demographic Snapshot contains the latest demographic and population information available on a postcode by postcode basis. Demographic Snapshots are complied from a variety of sources including the Australian Bureau of Statistics*, the Australian Tax Office, NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research and research by Australian Property Monitors.

You'll also find links to handy information on Local Governments for each Local Government in Australia.

Select the postcode of interest by entering either the postcode or the suburb. The data is presented on a postcode basis.



As for the 10 kilometre radius, you could use the 'Search by Area' function on realestate.com.au


There are lots of deals, but the really good deals will take a bit of searching out.

I grew up in Ivanhoe and West Heidelberg was an area virtually under curfew, yet look at it now! Close to the City and many parts gentrified beyond recognition.

If you are buying for the long haul there are many places 'on the turn' and therein lies your opportunity.


Good luck and Happy Hunting

Kristine
 
If you are looking for a HOUSE you may be out of luck - unless it is a knockdown.

But, you should be able to snag a half decent villa unit with a courtyard.

Frankston, for example, is better than Dande-thong in my view. We have an IP there.

Further out than you want, I know.

Have a look there.
 
Past performance is never a good indicator of future performance.

Have a look at Hoppers Crossing in the West....very good infrastructure. You will find older houses in the 230-250k mark.....but you will need to be quick because they are going the way of the Dodo!

As people are priced out of Point Cook they will head there...and then make the aspirational jump!;)
 
I always thought past performance is best indicator of future performance. find an area with growth history and away you go.

Im looking into Broadmeadows, Hoppers & Laverton at the moment :)
 
Beware of buying in some of the outer SE and western suburbs. I think that they will be hit very hard if/when unemployment rises.

Broadie is probably the pick of your shortlist. Also, forget any CG for the next few years.
 
I would also avoid fringe suburbs where there is risk of further adjacent subdivision. I prefer Broadmeadows over Dandenong. Closer to the city and good amenity. They cannot make any more land there.

You'd be lucky to find anything there (house on 600-650 sq m) for 250 K. Up to 300 K they're flying out the door.
 
I always thought past performance is best indicator of future performance. find an area with growth history and away you go.

How do you calculate historical growth? Because median price charts can be a little deceiving especially when there may be fundamental changes to the quality or type of assets (such as development of 1 bedroom unit blocks or luxury apartments) which changes the median but is not necessarily relevant to the increase of existing property values. Essentially, if a suburb is consistent with a type of accomodation you will find correlation between median growth and capital growth but... most suburbs have a wide range of housing from new 1 bedroom units, classic 5 bedroom mansions, townhouses, new devopments, old falling down blocks all of which pull the median to and fro. Personally, I find this a little statistically unreliable, especially when you consider there may be fundamental changes to a suburb such as gentrification, council investment, re-zoning, retail development, infrastructure changes which take these median price levels and turn them upside down and shake them around, making analysing historical median growth totally futile.

For me, my objective is to find underlying demand in a suburb with good government investment into infrastructure, transport and nearby commercial hubs, large retail and a variety of schools and paint a picture of what the next ten years are going to look like on the ground, based little on the past.

Statistics that help me the most are auction clearance rates, days on the market, historical values of specific properties (not median) rental yields.

Research into council websites, planning development, tertiary education, businesses in the area, demographics, population growth, neighbouring suburbs prices, lifestyle trends, what's happening with sales (talking to agents) etc. etc.

For me historical median charts are last on the list, but for reference I do use them to see what's happened in the past, and with a knowledge of the type of accomodation that developed or didn't develop to help me understand the median price levels more comprehensively. If i know a suburb hasn't changed significantly with the type of housing I do deem the median price accurate but in the areas I am usually looking in for clients it is rare that there aren't fundamental changes to the makeup of a suburb happening all the time.

Apologies for the rant !! Bi-product of early morning coffee? Sorry
 
Hmmmm...no offence but that is like looking in the rear vision mirror. Suburbs will change as demographics and infrastructure changes. If you told someone in the 1950s that Pascoe Vale & Coburg will become sought after areas they would have looked at you as if you were mad!...but look where they are now!

As property investors we need to look at the numbers and then do a sense check by reading about things like infrastructure and demographic changes.

I have been doing this for 10 years now...and when I have done this I have mostly succeeded.

I always thought past performance is best indicator of future performance. find an area with growth history and away you go.

Im looking into Broadmeadows, Hoppers & Laverton at the moment :)

I will need to disagree there....because in areas of the Western suburbs it is new migrants with decent incomes and deposits who are buying.

I personally think the risk is more in areas like Brighton where ANZ, NAB, Telstra are making wholesale cuts to middle management positions.

A very similar thing is happening in Sydney!

Beware of buying in some of the outer SE and western suburbs. I think that they will be hit very hard if/when unemployment rises.

Broadie is probably the pick of your shortlist. Also, forget any CG for the next few years.
 
stumunro: I was using an average of a few different averages of medain prices. Reiv, Domain, propinfo. You make a valid point and demographics, spefically population growth was something I was starting to get into. Appreciate the long reply :)

sash: If you asked me what Broady would be like in 60years id say st kilda now :) The reason I tend to fall back on previous data is due to a trading method I use analysing previous patterns as its basically all you've got. Theres alot more to property than a candlestick chart im quickly learning.

Ive swapped Hoppers for Heidleberg. Inner west is higher on my list than outer north or outer west. Might be struggling but hopefully I can find something. Need to sign a contract before end of financial year to get FHOG!
 
The cheapest areas relatively close to the CBD are Laverton, Broadmeadows/Dallas/Coolaroo/Meadow Heights, Sunshine West/Ardeer/St Albans

Braybrook and West Heidelberg are also close but may be dearer and above our price limit. Although some commission areas have semi-detached houses and you may be able to get one of them (some are on house-sized blocks but inflexible re demolition).

Craigieburn and Epping are boring, unremarkable areas but offer reasonable value and are nearer the CBD than outer southern and eastern suburbs.

Further out are your Narre Warrens, Cranbournes, Frankstons etc. In relation to the latter Seaford is better than Frankston North, though any $250k house in Seaford will be on the Frankston North side near Kananook Station.

Note there's a trade-off. A $250k property in (say) Laverton (or a dearer one in Braybrook) will likely be in a scummier street than one in Hoppers. Income are also very low in some older areas, whereas Hoppers is more lower-middle with more 'working families' and home buyers. But cheaper inner areas have greater land scarcity so may appreciate more (look at the recent performance of (say) Sunshine).

Cheaper inner areas have high migrant populations, cheaper outer areas less so (with exceptions like Dandenong). You will need to look at whose moving in and whose moving out - in some areas the established/successful/employed migrants move out, leaving the pensioners and unemployed behind.

A few cheapies:

Frankston North under $200k http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007594548

Hoppers - needs work but close to plaza http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007646565

Coolaroo - may be cheaper than Broady but is getting a train station - http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007575765

Laverton - http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007641276

Meadow Heights - http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007661874(may also benefit from Coolaroo Station)

St Albans $220k - http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007660639

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2007293828 in Chelsea Heights is a bit more - $310k. However it's OK value since there's little in the area much under $350k.

Peter
 
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