Agreed.
I would never have afforded a house when I bought IP#1. Waiting to buy a house would have simply delayed my initial entry and foray into the property investing world.
Sydney Market at top - calling a severe correction in 2018-2019
- Thread starter sash
- Start date
Agreed.
I would never have afforded a house when I bought IP#1. Waiting to buy a house would have simply delayed my initial entry and foray into the property investing world.
Sash, you picked the boom in 2010 so I'll take notice of you point on the correction in 2018-2019.
Hi All,
as per my previous posts..I am now formally calling that the Sydney market has topped out. Anyone who is getting in from this point onwards is probably not going to see much growth.
So what happens now....there will be a period where people will pay sill prices thinking the market will go higher.
People need to assess their risk and make a conscious decision whether they will stay for the long term or take profits and get out. Just don't go buying stuff now!
I am calling a severe correct by 2018-2019 in Sydney.....
Can't wait for the flurry of posts contravening my comments...
Well the correction is now unfolding albeit slowly...here is the way I see it being played:
1. The banks are tightening lending to investors. This will hit Sydney investors the most. The reduced lending will case investors to look at outer Melbourne and Brisbane. They will still have money but will put in a less expensive market. Adelaide is also a possibility.
2. The Chinese govt is tightening money being taken out.
3. The Feds are now reviewing who is buying and if they are residents. this will affect investment in markets where the Chinese are buying. I am sure they will fine or jail a few people to make an example of.
4. Money is now moving to Brisbane and the outer suburbs of Melbourne/Geelong. You will people in Sydney sell and move the money....
The newbies investing in Sydney will be like lambs to the slaughter....if you are thinking of selling do it within the next 3-6 months.
1. The banks are tightening lending to investors. This will hit Sydney investors the most. The reduced lending will case investors to look at outer Melbourne and Brisbane. They will still have money but will put in a less expensive market. Adelaide is also a possibility.
2. The Chinese govt is tightening money being taken out.
3. The Feds are now reviewing who is buying and if they are residents. this will affect investment in markets where the Chinese are buying. I am sure they will fine or jail a few people to make an example of.
4. Money is now moving to Brisbane and the outer suburbs of Melbourne/Geelong. You will people in Sydney sell and move the money....
The newbies investing in Sydney will be like lambs to the slaughter....if you are thinking of selling do it within the next 3-6 months.
Really!?! So I should sell my IP now. And buy a 3 bedroom house in Chatswood or a Terrace in Newtown for $700k or less in 6 months time?
You seem confident that the "Bubble" will burst?
What happens when all the sideliners decided to pounce on these stocks? Property prices will increase again?
North and Southwest Sydney is good choice for buying.
No man, buy in North Westnew area like:
Schofields, Riverstone, Marsden Park
or in South West area like:
Jordan Springs, Edmondson Park, Oran Park, Airds
There you go, young families and first home buyers typically buy in that area mentioned above.
Note: This is based on the Real Estate agents and most of my friends who started new family to raise kids.
hope that helps.
No man, buy in North Westnew area like:
Schofields, Riverstone, Marsden Park
or in South West area like:
Jordan Springs, Edmondson Park, Oran Park, Airds
There you go, young families and first home buyers typically buy in that area mentioned above.
Note: This is based on the Real Estate agents and most of my friends who started new family to raise kids.
hope that helps.
Hmmm....I suggest you read my post again.....did I say the bubble will burst...that means a correction. NOT ALL areas will go down but the ones with poor fundamentals will drop significantly.
Were you around when the market made adjustments in 2004-2006 ... 1989-1993....and more recently in 2008 when some people bought in Sydney houses worth 1.8m for 1.45m?
Mate....I am an fan of real estate...I just bought one and one more on the way possibly this weekend...am I buying in Sydney...NO WAY...am I buying outer Melbourne absolutely.
Will I be buying back in Sydney when there is the inevitable correction....ABSOLUTELY!
For the record...I could recall when prices in Wiley Park went from 90k in 2001 to 185k for units in 2004. Believe it not...then from 2005-2006...there plenty of repossessions...banks were selling some of these at auction for 125k! Thar you go...what would I know...I knoz nuttin....
Were you around when the market made adjustments in 2004-2006 ... 1989-1993....and more recently in 2008 when some people bought in Sydney houses worth 1.8m for 1.45m?
Mate....I am an fan of real estate...I just bought one and one more on the way possibly this weekend...am I buying in Sydney...NO WAY...am I buying outer Melbourne absolutely.
Will I be buying back in Sydney when there is the inevitable correction....ABSOLUTELY!
For the record...I could recall when prices in Wiley Park went from 90k in 2001 to 185k for units in 2004. Believe it not...then from 2005-2006...there plenty of repossessions...banks were selling some of these at auction for 125k! Thar you go...what would I know...I knoz nuttin....
Yes, which area for example ?
You are going to make me very unpopular....but I have big cahones....
Mostly in areas where there are significant speculative investments:
1. North Ryde/Eastwood/Epping - lots of mainlanders buying like no tomorrow especially units. Houses not so much. 4 years ago you could buy a house for 650-800k in these areas...you now are looking at 1.1-1.8m. The unit supply is large.....
2. Mt Druitt/Doonside - significant investor and speculative activity. What happens when the fundaments don't make sense?? What happens if there is no turnover of stock due to tighter lending?
3. New units in most suburbs...buying now OTP is suicide..what happens they don't value up in another 2-3 years? Do you have sufficient funds to cover the shortfall for finance??
Mostly in areas where there are significant speculative investments:
1. North Ryde/Eastwood/Epping - lots of mainlanders buying like no tomorrow especially units. Houses not so much. 4 years ago you could buy a house for 650-800k in these areas...you now are looking at 1.1-1.8m. The unit supply is large.....
2. Mt Druitt/Doonside - significant investor and speculative activity. What happens when the fundaments don't make sense?? What happens if there is no turnover of stock due to tighter lending?
3. New units in most suburbs...buying now OTP is suicide..what happens they don't value up in another 2-3 years? Do you have sufficient funds to cover the shortfall for finance??
What about all those potential first home buyer that's waiting out for a "correction". What happens when they enter the market? Wouldn't that correct the "correction" and nullify the situation?
There's a reason why North Ryde/Eastwood/Epping is so popular. It has many amazing amenities and great schools. That won't change. And the appeal for these market is still there. There was an interesting comment on a different forum where a poster was shocked why the houses in Epping is more expensive than Seaforth. People might desire better school/transport than a "Sea View". It's just personal preference really.
What do wilder beast do when the pack leader runs?
Have you seen Chinese (mainland) tourists in Europe....they follow the leader like sheep....are you a sheep or sheep dog? China is in trouble and the govt there is controlling the money of flow out what will happen there? What will happen if the banks make it more harder to borrow money for houses in certain suburbs in Sydney...no liquidity...means no growth...and eventually no turnover and price drops...
Mosman is a very desirable suburb....in 2008 there were lots of houses people could not sell. There was no over supply...care to know why??
Have you seen Chinese (mainland) tourists in Europe....they follow the leader like sheep....are you a sheep or sheep dog? China is in trouble and the govt there is controlling the money of flow out what will happen there? What will happen if the banks make it more harder to borrow money for houses in certain suburbs in Sydney...no liquidity...means no growth...and eventually no turnover and price drops...
Mosman is a very desirable suburb....in 2008 there were lots of houses people could not sell. There was no over supply...care to know why??
What's with the Mainlanders bashing? Calm down. This is the thing. Not trying to generalize - but it looks like a typical North Shore Attitude looking at your location under your name. Just trying to make reason why other suburbs are inferior to the north shore. And why it's not worth that much.
Buying in the growth are even OTP is surely a winner
1.North Ryde/Eastwood/Epping
Those suburbs above you mentioned are the blue chip suburbs where most of those new family or even Asian family wants to live. It is a family suburbs, which is supported by the train station hubs. Hence price was skyrocketing. There is no reason for those suburbs to go down at all.
2.Mt Druitt/Doonside
Not sure with this area, could probably growing after the Badgery creek airport Is fully built.
3.New units in most suburbs...buying now OTP is suicide
It depends, some places that I?ve mentioned above in
North West growth area like:
Schofields, Riverstone, Marsden Park
South West growth area like:
Jordan Springs, Edmondson Park, Oran Park, Airds
They are surely the winner in OTP investing, look at the domain.com.au page when you read SMH.com.au, Schofields is on the 3rd list of the fastest growing suburbs from $400k utp to now $ 750k+
See the map below:
You can't go wrong investing in those growth area that I mentioned above due to the supporting infrastructure in the next few years.
Note: I have done my due dilligience so far in this forum, site visit in those area I mentioned and based on my Premium Subscription of Eureka Report. Therefore it is a legitimate response from me not trying to confuse you.
I'm ready and prepared to be humbled if any of my statements above is wrong.
1.North Ryde/Eastwood/Epping
Those suburbs above you mentioned are the blue chip suburbs where most of those new family or even Asian family wants to live. It is a family suburbs, which is supported by the train station hubs. Hence price was skyrocketing. There is no reason for those suburbs to go down at all.
2.Mt Druitt/Doonside
Not sure with this area, could probably growing after the Badgery creek airport Is fully built.
3.New units in most suburbs...buying now OTP is suicide
It depends, some places that I?ve mentioned above in
North West growth area like:
Schofields, Riverstone, Marsden Park
South West growth area like:
Jordan Springs, Edmondson Park, Oran Park, Airds
They are surely the winner in OTP investing, look at the domain.com.au page when you read SMH.com.au, Schofields is on the 3rd list of the fastest growing suburbs from $400k utp to now $ 750k+
See the map below:
You can't go wrong investing in those growth area that I mentioned above due to the supporting infrastructure in the next few years.
Note: I have done my due dilligience so far in this forum, site visit in those area I mentioned and based on my Premium Subscription of Eureka Report. Therefore it is a legitimate response from me not trying to confuse you.
I'm ready and prepared to be humbled if any of my statements above is wrong.
I don't think there will be anymore growth for OTP or new Land and House package in North West or South West anymore... they're plainly too expensive and there're still lots of available land to be release in the future.
If you buy in an established suburb like Eastern suburb, NorthShore, Lower north Shore, and Inner West you will potentially see growth but not in a short or mid term but rather in a long term.
Won't happen, they'll be too scared. Media will drum up the doom and gloom. Everyone will be holding out for the mythical 40% drop again.
You'd be surprised.. The prices that developers have paid recently in NW for land they have to increase the price of land a lot compared to what others are selling for if they wanna make money... Anything there gets gobbled up by Indians, Chinese and retirees.. A lot of it depends on what product you're buying.. The big Mcmansions are goonee.
SW is a bit of a worry to me. I don't know how people will feel having an airport 15 mins to their houses.. Imagine the noise..Also the amount of land available is nuts, and there's even more being rezoned. Markets within markets. I wouldn't touch anything past Leppington anymore..
Could be right, but some house and package land closing it at 1 mill mark and they're like 35-40km from CBD....... Who can afford these......
I mean most of my friend (we're gen Y next gen), we're all looking at 650-700k 2 bed Apartment closer to CBD these days. Who want to live that far away...... for close to 1 mill...
The whole 'Sydney is in a bubble and a major correction is coming' is both true and untrue.
It completely depends on what you bought, where, and at what price. For the savvy and sophisticated property investors there is no such thing as a bubble or bust reality. Otherwise their gains would simply be lost in the 'bubble/bust' times, instead of growing massively.
The entire problem with bubble/bust scenarios is the investor's own lack of knowledge, research and understanding of property investment, which could be almost completely eliminated (the bust/bubble scenario) if they approached it differently.
Leo
It completely depends on what you bought, where, and at what price. For the savvy and sophisticated property investors there is no such thing as a bubble or bust reality. Otherwise their gains would simply be lost in the 'bubble/bust' times, instead of growing massively.
The entire problem with bubble/bust scenarios is the investor's own lack of knowledge, research and understanding of property investment, which could be almost completely eliminated (the bust/bubble scenario) if they approached it differently.
Leo
Were you around when the market made adjustments in 2004-2006 ... 1989-1993....and more recently in 2008 when some people bought in Sydney houses worth 1.8m for 1.45m?
For the record...I could recall when prices in Wiley Park went from 90k in 2001 to 185k for units in 2004. Believe it not...then from 2005-2006...there plenty of repossessions...banks were selling some of these at auction for 125k! Thar you go...what would I know...I knoz nuttin....
"Jason Clare's Blaxland electorate, which is centred on Bankstown, was named as the mortgage stress capital when interest rates were peaking in 2007-08, with around three loan foreclosures a day".
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...ket-in-their-electorates-20150609-ghk4o4.html
Who says Gen Y has to afford $1m new houses? It aint the product they're buying..
Many gen Y's are buying for their future and buying houses in the outer suburbs while they rent 1/2 bed apartments where they wanna live.. I'm gen Y and I would take a 4 bed house 40km from the city for 650k over a 2 bed unit in inner west for same price..Some of the most desirable places to live in Sydney are 40km from the cbd...All depends what your lifestyle is.. Some Gen Ys never wanna have more than 1 kid. If that's the case then 2 bed apartment close to city is perfect..
Yes, that does make sense. But somehow they are all too expensive for investing, nothing under $1m for a 3 bedders for sure.
Even Marrickville, Campsie, Lidcombe is now asking for high $900k
