Sydney Median Price in 2018 - 2019

Sydney median house price after correction in 2018 - 2019


  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .
Sash has called a "severe correction" in 2018 - 2019.

Using the Domain report the Sydney median houseprice at December 2014 was $873,786.

http://www.domain.com.au/public/guides.aspx

Using this as a base what change do you expect in the Sydney median property price after the correction has occurred ?

The price will go up from the December 2014 median and then come back down when there is a correction - some example answers :

Up about 15% = $1,000,000 median after the correction.

0% (Unchanged) = $874,000 median after the correction.

Down about 15% - $750,00 median after the correction.

I have made this a public poll.
 
I've voted for down by 5%.

I think there will be a further 10 - 15% growth this cycle followed by a correction of 15 - 20%.

Based on this it does not make sense to sell any of the properties with good capital gains as year.

The selling and tax implications will outweigh the benefits of buying back in after the correction.
 
I hit up by 20%. So going off the 874,000 I am looking for another 30% - 35%by 2018 then down circa 10 to 15% by 2020 then 7 or 8 years of stagnation then time to buy again in 2027.
 
I was interested to see if there was any general consensus about the coming correction in the Sydney market. It seems that there is not and, if anything, there is still a fair bit of optimism around.

It is so tempting to take some profits off the table - but it is also costly to do so. Think we're going hang in there a bit longer.
 
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I was interestyed to see if there was any general consensus about the coming correction in the Sydney market. It seems that there is not and, if anything, there is still a fair bit of optimism around.

It is so tempting to take some profits off the table - but it is also costly to do so. Think we're going hang in there a bit longer.
Your statement doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If you take profit it is Profit! Everybody has the underlying costs associated with attaining it.
 
We still intend to invest in property throughout the next cycle.

If you sell and incurr those costs - then there is less invested.

Then you have the costs to buy back in - wherever that is.

These costs would be more than 20% given the size of CGT on each of the properties.

So we would need to be expecting a big correction for it to make sense to sell and buy in elsewhere or sometime in the future.

If there is another 20% increase from here - then the expected correction might be big enough to make it worthwhile.
 
The poll results to date are not all that revealing.

There is no clear consensus on the direction of the Sydney market over the next 3 years.

I suspect a similar poll on any of the other capital city market would have much clearer results.
 
There is no clear consensus on the direction of the Sydney market over the next 3 years.
I actually found the question a bit confusing and I wonder if others were the same boat. Your data might be spurious as a result. It's difficult for people to a) pick the peak value, then b) the subsequent behaviour of the market from that peak.

Perhaps "Starting from a current median value of $873k, what do you expect Sydney's median price to be by dd/mm/yyyy?" would have been easier to process?

If people answer these four questions I'll tabulate the results and provide some charts and averages:

Somersoft Sydney Median Price Survey
 
We only received a sample of 10. Those that responded were reasonably bullish. The below chart represents an imputed average expected median price at the end of each year:



Raw Data
 
2019 is 4 years later. Assuming there's a correction in say 2016/17, it may fall by 10-15% on average. It'll probably recover 5-10% in 2018/2019.

So down 5%.
 
2019 is 4 years later. Assuming there's a correction in say 2016/17, it may fall by 10-15% on average. It'll probably recover 5-10% in 2018/2019.

So down 5%.
I did the numbers on your scenarios for my own interest.

Fall of 10% and recovery of 5% = -6.5%
Fall of 10% and recovery of 10% = -1%
Fall of 15% and recovery of 5% = -10.75%
Fall of 15% and recovery of 10% = -6.5%
 
After adjusting for cadence's typo it seems that the 63 votes average out to a zero change.

That seems to pretty much reflect the general view among the commentators - there are just as many bears as there are bulls about the future of the Sydney market.

It might be worth doing it again in another 12 months - but we will lprobably be ooking at the movement from a $900K+ median so it might be a bit clearer.
 
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