Sydney Median Price in 2018 - 2019

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Tonibell, 16th Mar, 2015.

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Sydney median house price after correction in 2018 - 2019

Poll closed 15th Apr, 2015.
  1. Up by 20%

    11.1%
  2. Up by 15%

    14.3%
  3. Up by 10%

    14.3%
  4. Up by 5%

    11.1%
  5. Unchanged

    4.8%
  6. Down by 5%

    7.9%
  7. Down by 10%

    6.3%
  8. Down by 15%

    6.3%
  9. Down by 20%

    12.7%
  10. Down by 25%

    11.1%
  1. Tonibell

    Tonibell Member

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    Sash has called a "severe correction" in 2018 - 2019.

    Using the Domain report the Sydney median houseprice at December 2014 was $873,786.

    http://www.domain.com.au/public/guides.aspx

    Using this as a base what change do you expect in the Sydney median property price after the correction has occurred ?

    The price will go up from the December 2014 median and then come back down when there is a correction - some example answers :

    Up about 15% = $1,000,000 median after the correction.

    0% (Unchanged) = $874,000 median after the correction.

    Down about 15% - $750,00 median after the correction.

    I have made this a public poll.
     
  2. Tonibell

    Tonibell Member

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    I've voted for down by 5%.

    I think there will be a further 10 - 15% growth this cycle followed by a correction of 15 - 20%.

    Based on this it does not make sense to sell any of the properties with good capital gains as year.

    The selling and tax implications will outweigh the benefits of buying back in after the correction.
     
  3. charlieandkath

    charlieandkath Member

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    I hit up by 20%. So going off the 874,000 I am looking for another 30% - 35%by 2018 then down circa 10 to 15% by 2020 then 7 or 8 years of stagnation then time to buy again in 2027.
     
  4. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    I voted just so I can come back and see what I said in 3-4 years.
     
  5. Tonibell

    Tonibell Member

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    I was interested to see if there was any general consensus about the coming correction in the Sydney market. It seems that there is not and, if anything, there is still a fair bit of optimism around.

    It is so tempting to take some profits off the table - but it is also costly to do so. Think we're going hang in there a bit longer.
     
    Last edited: 17th Mar, 2015
  6. Harro

    Harro Member

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    Your statement doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If you take profit it is Profit! Everybody has the underlying costs associated with attaining it.
     
  7. Tonibell

    Tonibell Member

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    We still intend to invest in property throughout the next cycle.

    If you sell and incurr those costs - then there is less invested.

    Then you have the costs to buy back in - wherever that is.

    These costs would be more than 20% given the size of CGT on each of the properties.

    So we would need to be expecting a big correction for it to make sense to sell and buy in elsewhere or sometime in the future.

    If there is another 20% increase from here - then the expected correction might be big enough to make it worthwhile.
     
  8. ferdinandch

    ferdinandch Member

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    $1M is about right :)
     
  9. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Member

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  10. Tonibell

    Tonibell Member

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    The poll results to date are not all that revealing.

    There is no clear consensus on the direction of the Sydney market over the next 3 years.

    I suspect a similar poll on any of the other capital city market would have much clearer results.
     
  11. rizzle

    rizzle Member

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    I actually found the question a bit confusing and I wonder if others were the same boat. Your data might be spurious as a result. It's difficult for people to a) pick the peak value, then b) the subsequent behaviour of the market from that peak.

    Perhaps "Starting from a current median value of $873k, what do you expect Sydney's median price to be by dd/mm/yyyy?" would have been easier to process?

    If people answer these four questions I'll tabulate the results and provide some charts and averages:

    Somersoft Sydney Median Price Survey
     
  12. rizzle

    rizzle Member

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    We only received a sample of 10. Those that responded were reasonably bullish. The below chart represents an imputed average expected median price at the end of each year:

    [​IMG]

    Raw Data
    [​IMG]
     
  13. cadence

    cadence Member

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    I was supposed to vote for up by 20pc
    But accidentally pressed down by 20pc :eek::eek::eek:
     
  14. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

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    2019 is 4 years later. Assuming there's a correction in say 2016/17, it may fall by 10-15% on average. It'll probably recover 5-10% in 2018/2019.

    So down 5%.
     
  15. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    I did the numbers on your scenarios for my own interest.

    Fall of 10% and recovery of 5% = -6.5%
    Fall of 10% and recovery of 10% = -1%
    Fall of 15% and recovery of 5% = -10.75%
    Fall of 15% and recovery of 10% = -6.5%
     
  16. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

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    I think that sounds reasonable in a bubble burst. If you look at Brissy, it's down around 7% from 5 years ago.
     
  17. Tonibell

    Tonibell Member

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    After adjusting for cadence's typo it seems that the 63 votes average out to a zero change.

    That seems to pretty much reflect the general view among the commentators - there are just as many bears as there are bulls about the future of the Sydney market.

    It might be worth doing it again in another 12 months - but we will lprobably be ooking at the movement from a $900K+ median so it might be a bit clearer.
     
  18. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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    ABS index for Brisbane is at an all time record high.
     
  19. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

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    Really? I read somewhere it's down 7%, which I did find strange. Maybe that's in real terms.
     
  20. Encarta

    Encarta Member

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    Someone please explain what this means? Google has failed me:mad: