Sydney to Canberra Corridor (Goulburn, Moss Vale, Queenbeyan)

Hello Somersofters,

Was doing some research around some properties in this area and found the following report which may be useful for anyone considering IP in these areas

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/plansforaction/pdf/sydcancorridor_regional_strategy_final.pdf

I had my eye on Goulburn but interested in peoples thoughts on the following section,


"The central subregion has a current population of 33 100 and is projected to grow by 3850 to 36 950 by 2031. This will require an additional 2300 dwellings. Goulburn is the major regional centre providing higher order commercial, service and community facilities. The Strategy recognises that Goulburn has significant potential for growth with an infill capacity of up to 1300 dwellings and a major greenfield release at Marys Mount with a capacity of approximately 1000 dwellings. The potential for further development of greenfield land at Kenmore and additional Marys Mount releases on the outskirts of Goulburn (with a combined potential of approximately 1000 dwellings) also provides it with the opportunity to attract or retain a stable workforce in the area, provided that there are also job opportunities available. These areas have been proposed to be zoned for housing in Goulburn Mulwaree’s draft principal local environmental plan, with mechanisms identified for staging. Given the extent of infill potential within Goulburn and trends towards an ageing population, a housing mix that encourages a greater proportion of medium density and infill development is supported. A more diverse mix of housing in the centre of Goulburn can also enable opportunities for younger age groups to find affordable housing close to services and employment. Redevelopment and revitalisation strategies for Goulburn will need to account for its significant heritage character."

Regards,
Q
 
Attached are some further reports re Goulburn. Essentially they suggest moderate growth with relatively stable drivers including Police Academy, Gaol, govt departments, TAFE, transport, agriculture, wind farms.

The proposed High Speed Rail (if it ever happens) will stop at Mittagong.

We've just settled on our second IP in Goulburn. The reasons they were attractive to us included:

- Familiarity: we lived for a period in Goulburn about 20 years ago, have maintained friends there, and have seen it grow steadily since the freeway bypass caused a downturn in the early 1990's. The Goulburn market (25,000 people) is small enough to get to know and understand, yet big enough to still be robust.

- On the ground research: we talked to 5 or 6 RE agents in Goulburn about the state of the market. Interestingly, we found REA Property Managers were more informative than Salespeople. Currently the amount of available rentals is high (about 80) but there are a relatively high number of people moving into/out of Goulburn due to TAFE or employment. IP1 took 3 weeks to find tenants, that was 12 months ago when there were a similar number of available rentals.

- Quality: the IP's we picked were both on large blocks and well built. IP1 built in 1880's (not heritage listed), and IP2 built 1980's on 1100m, both brick and minimal movement/cracking. Both needed cosmetic reno, which we preferred as it allowed us to see any underlying structural problems.

- Low cost of entry and good yield: Both IP's cost around $370k. IP1 has 5br house and 1br GF, total rent $580 pw. IP2 has 4br house, just recently settled and bank val came in higher than purchase price, we will be subdividing the block and building a 3br house on about 450m later this year. The lower purchase prices make this feasible, although obviously future CG will be slower than Sydney. We feel confident to start our first building project as the surveyors, architects, builders have all worked with each other over the years and could point to examples of previous work in the area.

- Sydney is top of the cycle, the ripple effect to Goulburn may be some years away but I can see no reason why it will not happen; Goulburn last increased substantially around 2006 so I figure it should start improving soon after the last few years of only slight price increases.

- The proximity to Canberra is also relevant: many commuters a day apparently, due to more affordable housing in Goulburn.

The new housing developments in OP are in our view a good thing. They have been released progressively, and have brought a lot of employment into Goulburn without overwhelming the number of available rentals. Locals tell me a lot have been bought by first home owners who work in Canberra. There are some older estates I would steer clear of due to a neglected streetscape, but they are easy to identify and avoid.

A new Bunnings and Coles Distribution Centre went up a few years ago, and a new Homemakers Centre is almost finished. The Goulburn Council website was difficult to navigate in searching for applications pending in the areas we looked at, but when you go to Council and speak with the Town Planners they are very helpful.

Good luck with your search, hope you find something you like.

Cheers,

Hugh
 

Attachments

  • Gouburn economic snapshot.pdf
    118.3 KB · Views: 142
  • Goulburn economic report 2013.pdf
    516.6 KB · Views: 95
  • Goulburn 2030 Strategic Plan.pdf
    4.7 MB · Views: 149
  • HSR_Phase_2_Chapter_4.pdf
    16.4 MB · Views: 66
What's the average occupancy of housing in the area at present?

The projection is 2300 dwellings @ 1.7 peeps/dwelling ie very small households. Is that realistic or will vacancy rates rise as the household size is closer to 2.57 peeps /unit ie demand for 1500 dwellings, leaving an oversupply of 800? :eek: (source abs 3236.0 household & family projections 2011-2036)
 
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I travel to Gouburn number of times because I visit their race track there :)

I loved the environment there, very relaxing life style, but the population is a major concern for me as there seems to be plenty of land but not enough people, there is also a 1 and only town centre which sort of drive me away from investing there.
 
I travel to Gouburn number of times because I visit their race track there :)

I loved the environment there, very relaxing life style, but the population is a major concern for me as there seems to be plenty of land but not enough people, there is also a 1 and only town centre which sort of drive me away from investing there.


This is what concerns me as well (large land supplies).. i think if the yields were significantly better (ie. 6.5%+) then i would more seriously consider and there doesn't seem to be enough reasonable upward CG trends that would make it viable. Hugh does mention the potential for ripple effect out of Sydney which could give the CG a decent kick.

Interesting.........
 
This is what concerns me as well (large land supplies).. i think if the yields were significantly better (ie. 6.5%+) then i would more seriously consider and there doesn't seem to be enough reasonable upward CG trends that would make it viable. Hugh does mention the potential for ripple effect out of Sydney which could give the CG a decent kick.

Interesting.........
Gonyx, ..... I live in Goulburn and have made terrific gains in the past 2-1/2 years (bought $240k ... re-valued one month ago at $340k). The past 12-18 months in particular has seen good capital growth, so my feeling is you needed to have bought 12-18 months ago.

Re: land releases .... I wouldn't worry to much about that as anyone who buy's close to the CBD will do well. Properties in the original older areas of Goulburn are still in high demand and sell very quickly and hold their value, especially if they are an old character property within walking distance to the CBD.

As I've said in previous threads .. a lot of good things happening in Goulburn, plus handy location, but you have probably missed the latest growth spurt. Also due to very high investor interest the vacancy rate has risen.

If you are looking for a long term hold investment then you may consider it, but if you are looking for good short term capital gains then you may be a little to late. Although you can still pick up an ex housing commission style property for the low to mid $200k ... it just depends on what you are looking for.

Mystery
 
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