Tempting to sell....but

The wife and I find ourselves in rather strange circumstances at the mo'....and thought I'd ask the forum what they would do in a similar position....IF they were able to share some of the background we've been through.


I'll set the background by saying that everything is going swimmingly well, and nothing is of an urgent or NEED to basis. There are only good or very good choices, I suppose a culmination of 15 years of investing and planning that is coming together nicely.


OK, the reason for our indecision at present is that we have been handed an open ended cheque book by a current tenant who wishes to purchase the property they occupy. No biggy you say, make a choice and move on. We find, due to the numbers involved, it's not that simple.


The open ended cheque book offer came about due to my legal arguing with my counterpart, the Chief Financial Officer of the tenant. He's new to the position and quickly come to the conclusion that his organisation is in an absolutely shocking position. When putting him back in his box over some insurance issues recently...(i.e. he must foot every bill I throw at him and then some, and do it immediately to my utmost satisfaction....love those words), he obtained some legal advice re: his position and realised that it couldn't be worse. A big jar of vaseline was all that was going to help him.


Anyway, to cut a long story short, he doesn't want to be subjected to the horrible pain and torture for the remaining 8.5 years left on the Lease....to which he is legally locked in for. His only option is to buy the place from us, and he knows that option is going to hurt just as bad, but I get the tingly feeling at the end of my radar that he'd rather pay thru the nose just the once, rather than draw it out.


The wife and I are gayly tossing Lotto figures around as to what the price should be...you know, strike that happy medium between plucking the maximum amount of feathers from the goose without incurring too many hisses. We are adamant that the tenant must, on top of the sales price, pay our CGT liability, so that isn't a concern for us. The sale price will probably end up being ~ 60% more than we paid for it.


We bought the place last Dec, so just starting to digest the acquisition, and I feel it's an absolute cracker about to go off CG wise. I have nothing to base this on other than my past experience and gut feel of the market and general situation the property finds itself in. The wife would like to take the money and run, for a number of reasons ;

1. It's well above her comfort level.
2. It's not close to us, and in fact we've never seen it or been there.
3. It is a significant cashflow drain on our finances at the mo'.
4. She didn't like or want to purchase it in the first place.

However, it'll be completely nuetral to hold in another 3 years time, and in 6 months time another one of our props will easily cover the cash shortfall.


If we do sell, the profit will be the equivalent of 12 years worth of me working, so there is a reasonable incentive to sell on that side. The only thing holding me back of course, is the potential of even larger capital gains over the coming 5 years, probably (and I'm plucking numbers here) 50 or 60 years worth of equivalent working.


I spent a good 4 months conducting the appropriate due diligence process prior to offering, and then a further 5 months getting the deal to settlement....so I've got alot of hours and alot of skin in the game. The last thing I wish to do is extract all of this cash and find myself having to go through the same wearing process to find a decent enough home for the funds extracted.


Now, a bit of history, we had this exact scenario about 3 years back with another of our rusty sheds. We had an offer not less than 4 months after we bought it, for about 20% more than we paid. It was tempting at the time, but we rejected it. I thought it might double in the next 5 years, but beyond all expectations it has since quadrupled in the past 3 years.....so, if this one does the same, and it has all the characteristics physically of the earlier one - except a better tenant profile...we'd be mad to sell.


.....so, is it a case of "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"....or should we trust that it will behave just as our previous one did ??


Your thoughts / comments would be appreciated.


P.S. I've dropped the "ling" for those who keep asking.
 
Wow, what a great position to be in!

I won't recommend anything because I'm inexperienced in the field, but either way, you'll be rolling in it!:D
 
Hang onto it. You have the tenant by the short and curlies, locked in tight I assume, so why on earth would you even consider selling?
 
The bit that I read that got to me was "well above her comfort level". Emotional security is worth more to me than financial gain over time.

My feelings would be to make life more pleasurable for yourself now and name the price and move on to another deal. But then, thats just me Dazz :) I don't like dealing with upset people in my personal life, I feel I do enough of that at work.
 
Now, a bit of history, we had this exact scenario about 3 years back with another of our rusty sheds. We had an offer not less than 4 months after we bought it, for about 20% more than we paid. It was tempting at the time, but we rejected it. I thought it might double in the next 5 years, but beyond all expectations it has since quadrupled in the past 3 years.....so, if this one does the same, and it has all the characteristics physically of the earlier one - except a better tenant profile...we'd be mad to sell.


.....so, is it a case of "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"....or should we trust that it will behave just as our previous one did ??

I don't think you'd necessarily be ''mad'' at all.

I think you already know that one of the hardest questions in all of this is...

How much is enough???

And it doesn't seem you've answered it.

I haven't conclusively answered it myself either. I think it's extremely difficult to answer.
Greed, desire, attachments, fear, regret...lots of things get in the way.

How much gross assets/net assets/passive income is enough?

How much is enough for you, your wife, your kids, your immediate family...and for how long?

How many generations of Dazz's do you plan to support once you're gone...and for how long?

Are you planning to establish a large philanthropic organisation at some point in the future?

How much is enough to sustain this...and for how long?

If you had eg. $7MM versus $35MM...how different would your day to day life be?

If you had eg. $50MM versus $100MM...how different would your day to day life be?

I don't think many here have faced your fortunate predicament...

Or at least not with the numbers involved here...
 
Last edited:
Definitely under qualified for this scale but have been in a similar position with smaller numbers...

I reckon you already know the score - you will get a good deal here but the upside with owning will no doubt be better... at higher risk of course. As an investment decision a lot would rest on the security of the tenant - govt / multi national / tin pot sole trader (doubting the last because it seems to be a big shed but you get the idea...). If you're not worried about defaults and cash flow impacts while you scout around for new tenants if they go under then I'd sit back and enjoy the fruits of the wonderful lease you got them to sign! Beats having to find another deal and do it all over again IMO. Doesn't sound like you'd be happy just letting the money burn a hole in your pocket!

I've always regretted selling, even when I can now buy something back for a fair bit less than I sold it for in Perth 2 years ago! Just the transaction costs, headaches, bank negotiations etc etc - I would rather spend the time playing with my kids when I get home! But then I'm more of your passive investor - I do this to spend less time working not more...

Only real difference to my mind with your situation is your better half's views... if betting the farm on each deal is getting uncomfortable then why create the stress? Doesn't sound like you need to - is this the opportunity to just take the cash, retire debt and tell the boss to take a running jump? Spend more time with the kids? Toy around with other possible deals at your leisure? Was the long term plan to keep extending yourself ad infinitum no matter how uncomfortable? And keep working to service it all?

To give an example, my other half just can't stand the idea of shares - way too risky! Happy to borrow 110% on any property/ies around but no way can we touch shares outside of a compulsory super plan. She is just not comfortable with it - she admits herself rationality doesn't come into play - so I just go with the flow, no need to push the point - I don't invest to make her uncomfortable. Besides, it means we can really ramp into property and spend more time doing a better job of it...:D

So FWIW on the basis of that info, I reckon if the other half is uncomfortable then dump it... otherwise keep it. As simple and as complex (!) as that... :p

BTW, you mention extensive DD on this shed of yours - we're currently looking at getting into some larger commercial opportunities and would love to find more info on doing the right DD on them. Any checklists / SS threads / books etc you could recommend on things to look for? (I've read a bit of Chris Lang's stuff and other bits here and there but nothing with a real lot of substance to be honest). The most valuable stuff has come from family / friends who can relate their experiences on their industrial units (over a couple of decades...). It's just the scale of the $$$ involved is starting to freak us out a bit so we want to do this right... any help appreciated!

Thanks!
 
Nice problem to have Daz. I'm assuming its a blue chippy tenant if it has its own CFO. Sometimes a bird in the hand is worth a lot more than 2 or even 3 in the bush. Especially if you speak to some of the CFOs who are struggling to re-fi their companies debt obligations at the moment and having to subject their assets to fire sales, in some cases 1/4 of what it might be worth but for the credit crunch. Perhaps you have an unlimited source of funding or available equity to help you through the times when (god forbid) one of your other tenants throws in the towel and the place sits empty long after the bond or bank guarantee runs out? It probably won't happen but I've heard horror stories for CIP and IIPs in Syd during the last recession we had to have in the 90s. All the banks suddenly became listed property trusts overnight.:eek: Just the cautious in me talking really. With the profits, I'm sure you could pick up a nice distressed asset and work your magic wand again. Life for Daz would be boring if months of sweat and tears were absent your deals... :)
 
Hi Dazz,

Firstly, I take it you have included any fees involved with paying the loan out early.

I am a bird in the hand type of person, never look a gift horse in the mouth, and a whole lot of other cliches.

Taking away the emotional pain, plus leaving a huge deposit for another deal, with a large cash buffer, would be too tempting for me.

bye
 
Hi Dazz,

Just had a thought. With the assumption the property is in WA. You have just had one of the largest property booms for WA ever.

Are those conditions likely to be repeated over the next couple of years with many of the worlds major economies looking like they are heading into recession?? For me the probability of such an occurrence happening again, immediately, is very small.

bye
 
Dazz, would selling this property allow you to quit the job earlier, and is this important to you? I'd be thinking in terms of the impact holding or selling would have on your lifestyle choices.

If you can quit the job and still comfortably fund the negative cash flow to hold this property the next 3 years, or if you don't mind staying in the job until the portfolio funds itself, then see if you can talk the lovely Mrs Dazz into being comfortable with holding. (Note: I deliberately didn't say "talk her into holding". ;))

If selling the property would allow you to retire sooner, and that's important to you, then I'd lean towards selling.

I wouldn't let your perception of the availability of other deals weigh too heavily on your decision. I'm highly confident that you'd find (or create) a great deal whatever the market conditions. :)

If you have a clear objective, it makes decision-making simpler - you simply ask "which choice gets me closer to my objective?". You need something very specific, such as: I aim to develop a portfolio of properties worth $X generating $Y of income (positive cash flow) (or with the ability to draw $Y from equity each year without eroding overall position) per year.

With apologies if I appear to be telling you to suck eggs; I know that you would already know this, so I don't pretend to be telling you something new or earth-shattering. :rolleyes: I just know that when you're right in the middle of it, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture. I'm simply reminding you. :)
 
Back here you said 'I also agree that 2M is cheap for 10 years of your life.'.

If profit is 12 years worth of income, then investing the lump sum at 8% will replace your income forever. Your other investments will provide the growth.

What risks have you neglected to cover so far ? What could go wrong (however unlikely) ?
Would a guaranteed income for life give you (& wife) more SANF ?
How greedy do you want to be ? Someones sig here is from Arnie - the difference between $48M & $50M is meaningless.
The global economy is tenuous ATM. What if a tenant falls over - will your lack of c/f cause the whole stack of cards to crumble ?

I say take the $$$ now. Life is about having time to do what you want, not having the probability/gut feel of future gains.

There will be bargains around over the next 2-3 years. Without a pile of cash you may be frustrated about not being able to take advantage.

I'd say this is the perfect scenario - cash up a proportion of your growth assets on your terms, put them into reliable income assets, move to the final phase, sail off into the sunset :).
 
Similar thoughts to ozperp.
a) how much wealth do you want, and
b) do you want to quit that job

Here is a thought: given the cash result of 12x wage if you sell, you could simply invest the proceeds (assuming you, not the bank, can grab it?) in something really boring (but completely safe and reliable) like cash/bills/bonds and earn from that (12x7.25%)each year nearly what your job provides you. Quit your job and spend that time with kids/school etc like you've mentioned previously, and be no worse off cash flow wise!

From what you've said previously, you'd still have plenty of other assets to keep long term wealth ticking along very nicely. It could boil down to - high wealth down the track vs good wealth down the track and complete freedom now.

edit: oops, Keith beat me to it!
 
Low LVR/un-leveraged CIP is a great retirement investment.

Selling and reducing debt will take the banks and LOE out of the picture, and give you much greater control.

No need to rely on bank managers/mortgage brokers/bank valuations to keep your ship afloat...
 
My mind is torn between both camps.

The goal I guess is to make enough out of this caper that you can go sit on a beach with a pena colada in each hand for the rest of your life and not have to move unless the sun was getting a little strong or you felt like a dip.

If this sale will get you to that goal post, then congratulations and go for it.

Now that you know how to do it, you can always do another deal down the track and top up the wealth.
 
You have talked previously about this latest purchase setting you up financially for life, and giving up your job. Has any of that changed? When are you going to actually give up the job?

You have a secure income from this tenant for another eight years (unless the company goes belly up, of course, which could mess your plans up). If your wife was "happy" with this situation, then what has changed?

I have regretted each time we have sold a house, even though selling was really the only way forward for us at the time. It seems this is not a sale you "need" to make, and the only change is that you have been made a good offer.

If this company didn't make an attractive offer, would you be looking to sell?

You say that holding will pay you tenfold down the track.

I think only you and your wife can decide what you both REALLY want, and make your decision from that.
 
Thank you one and all for replying to the thread. That's exactly what I was looking for....some good solid critical feedback from a different angle.

This forum is excellent for that - discussing property stuff amongst investors who are emotionally removed from the situation. When you're right up against the rockface, sometimes it's hard to step back and see the whole mountain.

I must admit that the wife and I are not as goal orientated as some of the folks here. I could accurately describe our property "plan" as bumbling along. Not good I know, but we never really had a goal...we just worked the "acquiring as much and as soon as we could" thing. Totally against what all the successful gurus preach, but it's worked OK so far.

We have no cashflow goal, no asset level goal, and no number of properties goal. I know it's hard to hit a fuzzy target, and maybe that's what the overall problem is and why I am still sitting here working as an engineer.

As with most people's lives, there are multiple things going on all at once, and they all need to be taken into consideration before a decision falls out of the mix regarding any or all of the props.

Just to chuck a few wobblies into the system, the following events are happening simultaneuosly ;

1. I've quit my current job. Last day is next Friday. Good news hey !! :D
2. I start a new job the following Monday....cash flow still needed....bad news hey !!! :(
3. A big national industrial tenant (our best one) just left one of our props. :(
4. The site being vacated is being re-advertised for triple the rent. :D
5. It's that time of the year - coming up to the cashflow draining CR/WR/LT season. :mad:


So, I'm juggling a whole bunch of things at the moment, and this unquantified very random unsolicitored offer coming out of the blue sort of throws the whole mix into a larger spin.

I might take a leaf out of my old mentor's book....when it gets confusing or just too much, he just stubbornly sits there and does nothing - apparently that fixes most things and things just blow over or go away.


On the other hand, cashflow seems to be the re-curring theme here from your responses.....the Capex numbers are quite irrelevant in the scheme of things....the thing that delivers stability to the ship is reliable cashflows. We sort of have that - it could be better at present, and I'm working on it to improve it, but it's about 65 to 70% grading at the mo'.


In terms of my wife's comfort levels, she was uncomfortable at the Capex levels reached about 4 years ago and we've gone a fair way since then. Her comfort levels are stressed mainly by the cashflow drains. As soon as the props go +CF she reckons they are quite good. We are "feeding" heavily off two industrial properties that are flinging off big mobs of cash and she now thinks they are just tickety boo. When we bought them, they were cashflow draining, and she didn't like them one bit.....smelly, costly, ugly...you get the picture, not something that the girls typically go for.


Giving up the job permanently will occur in Feb next year. That's when we receive the fruits of a 'market review' on the CBD property we also bought last year (not the shed we are talking about here), the profits of which shall more than prop up the entire portfolio (including the shed) and our private lives moving forward.


People also mentioned the reliability or quality of the cashflow stream with this shed. Propping up the house of cards so to speak. This goes to the heart of my wife's concerns. It's also a big concern of mine. It was such a big concern to our original Bank that they refused to back us, saying we had bitten off more than we could chew with the purchase.

Well, we've got a decent set of chompers and we've been stuffing our face chockablok for the past 7 months and things are going OK. If the tenant went belly up however, we would definitely be in the manure. Things that gave me confidence were ;

1. The tenants have rock solid Govt contracts to supply products for the next 10 years.
2. The products are big, and need a bit of elbow room - they can't shift into another shed, cos they aren't big enough to house their operations.
3. We have 3 full months bank guarantee....but we both agree if the brown hits the fan that won't buy us enough time to turn it around.
4. They are a decent sized national company - but not humungous.
5. The Lease is rock solid, as long as they are still in business.


If you were at all jittery, you probably wouldn't have bought the property in the first place. The tenant by the way had the "first right of refusal" on the place, that is, the Lease wording dictated that after all my negotiations with the elderly Owners were concluded, the Tenant had the right to buy it from underneath me - which they passed up 7 months ago. I suppose a new CFO changes the managerial mix and he doesn't like being a tenant.


Oh, one more small detail, I've always chased the really high risk / high return prop deals and looking back it's been an OK path to tread. To add fuel to the fire, one of our big +CF props along with our PPoR was needed by the other Bank that did support us to be stumped up as security just for the shed deposit.....so yeah - if it goes belly up, the picture would look fairly ordinary.
 
Dazz;429694JA big national industrial tenant (our best one) just left one of our props. :( The site being vacated is being re-advertised for triple the rent. :D [COLOR="Red" said:
There is some comforting extra cash flow right there. Even if you only double the rent, it is more than is coming in now.[/COLOR]

I might take a leaf out of my old mentor's book....when it gets confusing or just too much, he just stubbornly sits there and does nothing - apparently that fixes most things and things just blow over or go away.

This is what I do too. Most things just settle down and we get on with it. I sometimes feel like Scarlet in Gone with the Wind.... "I'll worry about that tomorrow".

Giving up the job permanently will occur in Feb next year. That's when we receive the fruits of a 'market review' on the CBD property we also bought last year (not the shed we are talking about here), the profits of which shall more than prop up the entire portfolio (including the shed) and our private lives moving forward.

It is only 7 months until February. If the market review then will prop up the entire portfolio including the shed, I would be eating baked beans if I had to until then, and throw the job and do whatever it is you want to.

To add fuel to the fire, one of our big +CF props along with our PPoR was needed by the other Bank that did support us to be stumped up as security just for the shed deposit.....so yeah - if it goes belly up, the picture would look fairly ordinary.

We have everything we own in hock to the bank, but I think that if things go so badly that we lose our shirts, we would be left with a house to live in and we just start again. Knowing that we are in a better position than probably 80% of others, makes me think that things would have to go pretty badly for us to lose our shirts.

The big question for me would be this. If this ceo hadn't suggested you sell to him, would you even be considering selling, or would you keeping on down the path you are already on?
 
The big question for me would be this. If this ceo hadn't suggested you sell to him, would you even be considering selling, or would you keeping on down the path you are already on?

Thanks wylie for your responses.

We haven't considered selling any of the properties for a very long while now. It's just this "tentative open ended offer" dropped into our lap and we've been contemplating what it would do if we went ahead with it.

Until it transforms into a formal cash unconditional contract signed on paper - nothing will happen of course. Juggling the options of what you would do with the surplus cash certainly fired us both up though.

On the bigger picture, we've just been "reviewed" by our Bank, and passed OK until June next year. These tighter lending conditions are making those boys do some pretty weird things. I don't want to be forced to do something cos they get cold feet.

As JIT mentioned above, selling this prop and paying off oodles of debt would remove the Bank Manager and boss in one foul swoop. That is definitely attractive to both of us.
 
Back
Top