The 2009 property market - by Michael Yardney

Hi all,
I thought that you might be in the need of some positive outlook on property for the coming year.

I don’t know if you have caught up with Michael Yardney's latest webcast.

I recently listened to it an found his insights into the property market for 2009 realistic yet positive.

He calls it 2009 – Property Boom or Bust? If you haven't heard it yet you can download it for free at this link
http://www.propertyupdate.com.au/1208/boomorbust.htm

Have a great weekend and let's hope that 2009 will be a good year for investment properties.
 
Last edited:
Is this Today Tonight style sensationalism in the title or not on this occasion. :rolleyes:

He calls it 2009 – Property Boom or Bust?

Its a ridiculous title, it wont be either boom or bust.
 
boom or bust, its fair, covers all bases....

if it boom he right, if it bust he right, and if it in between he still in the range :p
 
caroline cummin, is a absolute tool, she never gets anything right its all fluff...

however, i like what she says there about property 2009/10, and i agree. but it scares me how any times she predicts the opposite so it kinda scares me with her article.
 
it's a boom, buy now!
It's bust and never a good time to buy cheap, buy now!!
Bought already? It's a boom, buy more now!
Bought already? It's a bust and never a good time to "average down", buy now!!
No money to buy more? It's a boom, let your profit run! Don't sell.
No money to buy more? It's a bust, don't crystallize your loss! Don't sell.
Still not sure? Don't try to time the market. Smart people buy all the time. Buy now!
 
I've stopped paying attention to Michael Yardney's numerous 'property updates'.

He seems too much of a property pusher for me. He keeps quoting reasons to buy now while ignoring the downside risks. :rolleyes: He has done that throughout most of this year, when the market clearly changed direction.

Does anybody remember when did he advise NOT to buy now?

Contrast it with Bill Zheng, who at least changed his tune this year when he realised something fundamentally different than a short term slump was occurring.

Cheers,
 
it's a boom, buy now!
It's bust and never a good time to buy cheap, buy now!!
Bought already? It's a boom, buy more now!
Bought already? It's a bust and never a good time to "average down", buy now!!
No money to buy more? It's a boom, let your profit run! Don't sell.
No money to buy more? It's a bust, don't crystallize your loss! Don't sell.
Still not sure? Don't try to time the market. Smart people buy all the time. Buy now!

History has shown us that people who do that consistently, over time, whilst managing their cashflow (and risk) end up doing pretty well. Even if they are 'dumb' and couldn't pick the timing.

Those theorists who don't buy anything end up trolling internet forums. But, hey, they 'won'.
 
History has shown us that people who do that consistently, over time, whilst managing their cashflow (and risk) end up doing pretty well. Even if they are 'dumb' and couldn't pick the timing.

Those theorists who don't buy anything end up trolling internet forums. But, hey, they 'won'.

Very true.

You still need to be careful with your timing though. Property tends to have booms followed by long flat periods. Why would you negatively gear during a flat period?

Cheers,
 
You still need to be careful with your timing though. Property tends to have booms followed by long flat periods. Why would you negatively gear during a flat period?

Cheers,


Because negative gearing is comparable to the costs of selling and buying (agents fee's / cgt / purchasing costs) in and out of markets. There is the tax incentives as well as it being much more forgiving then trying to time the markets.
 
Very true.

You still need to be careful with your timing though. Property tends to have booms followed by long flat periods. Why would you negatively gear during a flat period?

Cheers,

In my case I need to use lo-doc loans, these are disappearing, I've just
bought a property in a Melbourne blue chip area which we will do a full renow. on and will then cost me about $90p.w. after tax.

My view is that a few months from now I won't be able to increase my borrowings so I should do it now.
 
Thats crazy. How forgiving is neg gearing for five years when property prices are falling or flat and falling relative to inflation.

Sorry, you dont buy property for tax incentives, you buy property for one purpose and thats to make money. And your scenario is not about making money, its actually losing money.

Because negative gearing is comparable to the costs of selling and buying (agents fee's / cgt / purchasing costs) in and out of markets. There is the tax incentives as well as it being much more forgiving then trying to time the markets.
 
Its not that they dont buy anything, its that they buy when the time is right. So they are not theorists, juts have a different investing style.

If you just buy at any time in the cycle (like now), usually the gains you make in the booms are totally compromised by the costs of neg gearing, expenses etc and long down price periods, so its not as flash as people think when looking at the bigger picture.

Those theorists who don't buy anything end up trolling internet forums. But, hey, they 'won'.
 
We've never timed the market with any of our purchases; it's always been about when we could afford it and the cashflows.

Having said that, we have been fortunate to have had some nice timing, but we are buy and holders not flippers.

I think if you can maximise all the factors and start with good cashflow then the market timing is less important.

If you can time the market, then that's another factor you are maximising.
 
Its not that they dont buy anything, its that they buy when the time is right.

Everyone likes to think this of themselves but the truth is the vast majority of the trolls that frequented this forum have either;

a) never bought anything (couldn't pull the trigger)
b) sold early and missed out on massive gains
c) bought lots of shares and just took a massive hit (and completely stuffed up the timing on that) - quite a few dropped off after that

If they bought when the time is right they would have bought property around 2001 when I did, which they didn't.

Even right up till say 2005 would have been good, so unless they are 21 now there is no real excuse.
 
If you just buy at any time in the cycle (like now), usually the gains you make in the booms are totally compromised by the costs of neg gearing, expenses etc and long down price periods, so its not as flash as people think when looking at the bigger picture.

This second part I'll agree with.

What you've said above is what I meant by managing your cashflows and risk. Timing is important however 'doing something' (anything) is more important than timing. Most theorists don't end up doing anything, whereas 'fools' with only average timing luck end up making more money.

I'm not buying now. Last purchase was 1.5 years ago (but that was a PPOR). Maybe in 6 months time when stuff is more CF neutral/positive.
 
Back
Top