The Australian housing bubble furphy

When should I start listening? 5-8 years ago when they started popping up or now? or perhaps next week or another 5-8 years from now?

Sorry I find it hard to listen to people whose position never ever changes in the slightest.

Just look at this for instance; http://bit.ly/f4O5Jy

Which part of this D&G message do you want me to listen too?

The part where he says prices went up 20%? then he himself realises how silly it sounds backtracks and tries to float some fluff to cover it up?

Or perhaps I should listen to his view that prices will still fall by 40% despite by his own amazingly wrong recolection prices went up by 20% since he last projected a fall of 40%. How can his view have not changed? It makes no sense shouldnt his view now be that prices will fall by more than 60%?

By definition that means back when he claimed prices will fall by 40% he really meant to say 20%?

Notice how his arguments much like most D&G'ers is void of any specificity, all his figures are nice round numbers, 20%, 40% etc. The issue I have his D&G views are mainly "the vibe of it". For instance oh, prices cant keep going up they must crash, we cant keep living like this, oh it happened in america it will happen here.

I am lost with all the noise the D&G are making. Their collective view is one based on faith that prices will crash and burn not on based in rationality.. its Unfortunate the media sees no value in have two opposing rational views as it doesnt rate instead we have economic monkies being paraded around screaming run for the hills while they wear their anti-government mind reading foil hats on.



Yeep. It was fun while it lasted, now it’s off to the salt mines to service my underwater mortgage. Parting words of advice, listen to the D&G brigade.
 
Its too late for you... its too late for you all. Let the searing fires of a 29% drop in 1 quarter in 1 state in a particular suburb cleans your portfolio.

Anyway, I hope everyone knows that I’m taking the **** here.
 
The part where he says prices went up 20%? then he himself realises how silly it sounds backtracks and tries to float some fluff to cover it up?
He corrects his comments here:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/02/15/keen-joye-on-house-prices/

The presenter also got some numbers wrong to begin with.

Notice how his arguments much like most D&G'ers is void of any specificity, all his figures are nice round numbers, 20%, 40% etc. The issue I have his D&G views are mainly "the vibe of it". For instance oh, prices cant keep going up they must crash, we cant keep living like this, oh it happened in america it will happen here.

I am lost with all the noise the D&G are making. Their collective view is one based on faith that prices will crash and burn not on based in rationality.. its Unfortunate the media sees no value in have two opposing rational views as it doesnt rate instead we have economic monkies being paraded around screaming run for the hills while they wear their anti-government mind reading foil hats on.
Have you read any of Keen's debt deflation blog or have you simply watched a couple of clips, read a couple of mainstream media headlines and now consider yourself an expert on Keen's research and opinion? I suspect the latter.

You choose to see the collective view of bears as based on faith and as irrational thinking... that does not represent reality (in all cases).

2 years ago I was writing long posts on a bear forum about the reasonable cost it would be to buy vs rent in some specific Adelaide suburbs (using a long term fixed rate), a shame the site is no longer up. I haven't been singing the same tune for 5-8 years yet you still lump me in with the rest. Early 2009 with fixed rates was the way to go for (some) FHBs in 2009 (when we had record low interest rates), now is a bad time for them to buy and hence my opinion now reflects that.

You appear unable to look critically at the subject at hand.
 
Hobo-jo, please seriously! Even his half baked explanation for his error shows his typical attitude of close enough is good enough, is it 18.8, 15.5 or 20? And what an overlenlarged ego he has that his blog starts with fixing his errors and pointing out errors of others instead of concentrating on the issue, what an ego this mental midget has.

It was so obvious to EVERYONE! he was wrong during the interview why not simply say, "I am mistaken I need to check my figures" rather than fluff, and try and talk his way out of a mess. Why? Because he is not an economist, he is not an academic he is a fraud and a media circus act.

No I havent read his book just as I havent read into any other moronic publication. EVERYTHING THIS MAN HAS PREDICTED HAS NOT COME TO FORE BY A LONG SHOT. His views contradict mainstream economic thinking so therefore its place for discussion is academic. What he should NOT be doing is applying unproved\unsupported views as fact.

He keeps blaming his so called predictions on not coming true due to government interference like the FHOG (governments interfere all the time to soften booms and avoid busts). Well that has ended why hasnt the market plummeted?!?! If ALL that was holding up the market was an external and artificial demand influence then surely once that is removed prices "crash" but they have not.

Whats the reason? Inertia? my god the size of this mans brain is only matched by that of a slug.

His stupidity is only bettered by those who follow him.

hobo-jo you have been wrong for years as has Keen.


He corrects his comments here:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/02/15/keen-joye-on-house-prices/

The presenter also got some numbers wrong to begin with.


Have you read any of Keen's debt deflation blog or have you simply watched a couple of clips, read a couple of mainstream media headlines and now consider yourself an expert on Keen's research and opinion? I suspect the latter.

You choose to see the collective view of bears as based on faith and as irrational thinking... that does not represent reality (in all cases).

2 years ago I was writing long posts on a bear forum about the reasonable cost it would be to buy vs rent in some specific Adelaide suburbs (using a long term fixed rate), a shame the site is no longer up. I haven't been singing the same tune for 5-8 years yet you still lump me in with the rest. Early 2009 with fixed rates was the way to go for (some) FHBs in 2009 (when we had record low interest rates), now is a bad time for them to buy and hence my opinion now reflects that.

You appear unable to look critically at the subject at hand.
 
Assets for investment are usually valued on an income to value ratio. (or price to earnings ratio)

Australian resi property is possibly the only asset class where this is not valid, as due to neg gearing it has made the earning side of the equation irrelevant. Just like this debate.

Resi property cant be valued by normal means as an investment. So, people make up other stuff like income to price ratios etc.

To get a picture of the market, most rational people will look at a number of different statistics, rather than just one. An experienced investor wouldn't look at one flawed statistic and draw a conclusion.
 
That sentence makes no sense.



You are totally missing my point. Income to house prices is ONE measure being used, mainly by D&Gers and tabloid newspapers, but it doesn't give a full picture of the housing market.

To get a picture of the market, most rational people will look at a number of different statistics, rather than just one. An experienced investor wouldn't look at one flawed statistic and draw a conclusion.

No I am being logical. I am saying it is one indicator which does mean something. If you can't understand that then you don't understand what you are saying about how it does not tell the whole picture.
 
hobo-jo you have been wrong for years as has Keen.
Having doubled my networth more than a couple of times over the last 5 years (not that it would compare much to some on here :))I seem to be doing ok for someone who has been 'wrong for years', imagine how much I'll make when I get it right...

There is a level of desperation in your attempts to discredit Keen. For someone who you think is 'not worth the time of day' you (and some other users on here) seem to care a lot about what he is saying and doing.

Your posts are a hoot Tim, keep them coming!
 
No I am being logical. I am saying it is one indicator which does mean something. If you can't understand that then you don't understand what you are saying about how it does not tell the whole picture.

sorry Beebop you are NOT logical at all. I have gone through your posts, sometimes you present some logical thought process, but then you stuff it all up by venting your frustions, such as:
*property investors are evil, or words to that effect;
*complain like mad that its not fair that rents are increasing which make it harder to save for a deposit.

A logical person does not label a class of people trying to achieve a legal investment return as "evil", nor do they complain about rent, when the validity of the rent/buy argument is a factor of the underlying cost of the asset concerned.

Anyway this is intrinsic_value tuning out to this whole debate, its a waste of my time and my time is valuable.
 
yawn...

"Having doubled my networth more than a couple of times over the last 5 years"

so lets say a couple times is 3-4?

lets say your net worth was what? 500k?

500k -> 1m -> 2m -> 4m -> 8m

so you made profit 4-8m in 5 years?

Lets say you borrow only 50% in your Keen loving ways? meaning your total assets right now sits at 8-16m?

If its not then you gambled each time? i.e. invested in 100% return investments?

Would love to hear you explain how your "net worth" doubled a couple of times in just 5 years... sounds like a lot of fluff too me.

Also how much of that in property given this is a property forum?

I honestly have not made 4-8m profit in 5 years but I suspect your flippant comment is just a lot of nothing... so what do i reply with? I made more than you? therefore you are wrong? I made 1000000000000 million in just 5 years? sigh... such a futile comment yours is.

My comments about Keen are out of frustration nothing more... especially when if i challenge you to agree with his core comments like 40% drops you wont.. so basically you sit on the fence or reply with something Keen himself wouldnt ever agree with..




Having doubled my networth more than a couple of times over the last 5 years (not that it would compare much to some on here :))I seem to be doing ok for someone who has been 'wrong for years', imagine how much I'll make when I get it right...

There is a level of desperation in your attempts to discredit Keen. For someone who you think is 'not worth the time of day' you (and some other users on here) seem to care a lot about what he is saying and doing.

Your posts are a hoot Tim, keep them coming!
 
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