The Australian housing bubble furphy

[hobo-jo]

Tim, it's quite possible that I made less than you over the last 5 years despite the gains (starting from a relatively low base). It was just a flippant reply to your flippant comment that I have been wrong for years.

15 months ago you posted this:

They understood simple economic principals such as cycles start and end and therefore taking advantage of the downside by picking up undervalued assets and now re-adujsting again for the prevailing up cycle.

So what I am saying is be smarter than the masses, see property for what it really is, an asset class, that goes up and down and that money can be made whatever stage in the cycle we are in so long as your decisions are business ones and not ideoligical ones.

When should we expect to see this next prevailing "up" cycle?

I don't sit on the fence, I've made it perfectly clear that I don't expect a 40% fall in nominal terms. Regardless I just get tired of the Keen bashing that goes on here.

 

[Deltaberry]

well the simple rule is, what goes up must come down

Has your salary been going up in the last 30 years? Expect mean reversion soon...

 

[tcocaro]

Mate your arguing for argument sake! If you dont agree with his 40% claim and your view is nowhere near his then why pop up each and every time to come to his defence? your feel sorry for the poor little guy? awww how cute.

Ummm has prices gone up for the last 15 months? was there not a cycle since that last post? lol just proved my point (aparently by 20% if you listen to you budy lol).

There are large cycles and small cycles but since that prices did go up in some states and others not and now down again so you can repost that comment here for the next cycle. The issue I think is you feel makets only boom and bust so you view my comment of cycle as the next boom, this is your mistake not mine.

so keep trauling for previous posts....

And my response hasnt been flippant, you have been wrong just as Keen has and your just frustrated that you still feel the "core point" of your view is right that we are heading for a period of continuous falls by some magnitude just as Keen does. You have been wrong before and in my view you will continue to be wrong and I stand by cycles and boring basic economic principals which both you and Keen feel they dont apply anymore.

Good luck with doubing your net worth and ill continue making only 20%. PS, even to double your networth a couple of time at any low starting base is gambling perhaps you should read up on risk management.

cheers.

Tim, it's quite possible that I made less than you over the last 5 years despite the gains (starting from a relatively low base). It was just a flippant reply to your flippant comment that I have been wrong for years.

15 months ago you posted this:

When should we expect to see this next prevailing "up" cycle?

I don't sit on the fence, I've made it perfectly clear that I don't expect a 40% fall in nominal terms. Regardless I just get tired of the Keen bashing that goes on here.

 

[hobo-jo]

Ummm has prices gone up for the last 15 months? was there not a cycle since that last post? lol just proved my point (aparently by 20% if you listen to you budy lol).

I suppose we are to believe that your comment 15 months ago only referred to a couple of states that rose. Prices on a national basis have been falling since early last year...

You keep your comments so generalised that you could probably argue a position that you also thought some states would fall in price as they did last year... just like a true mainstream economist, keep your position neither here nor there so you can always claim you are right.

 

[tcocaro]

Nice and stubborn you are....

get me the national growth figures for 2010 (year on year) is it positive or negative?

Then lets break it down by state and see which went up and which went down? Did the vast majority go up or down?

Price have NOT been falling since early last year, you are wrong again and I am not being flippant just direct. You are factually incorrect I am not being general I am being specific the australian property market was +ive for 2010, it was also +ive for all states and territories bar (depending on which stat you follow and whether you seperate house\units) Perth\Brisbane.

The majority of the price growth occured in the first half of the year (i.e. up from my comment) and then tappered off in the later half of the year (hmmm what shape does this make? a hill? a curve? hmm whats the word im looking for? cycle thats it.

Seriously mate, you can keep hitting your head against that wall, getting frustrated but your views to date have been wrong, your facts are wrong, your claims are wrong and anything I prove incorrect you come back and say it was just you being flippant. Are you being flippant again?

Lets leave it at that no one is gaining any value in our little tit for tat, if you want to hear me say I am wrong then me, residex, the abs, BIS are all wrong you are right hobo-jo, you and Keen... right again!

I suppose we are to believe that your comment 15 months ago only referred to a couple of states that rose. Prices on a national basis have been falling since early last year...

You keep your comments so generalised that you could probably argue a position that you also thought some states would fall in price as they did last year... just like a true mainstream economist, keep your position neither here nor there so you can always claim you are right.

 

[hobo-jo]

get me the national growth figures for 2010 (year on year) is it positive or negative?

Then lets break it down by state and see which went up and which went down? Did the vast majority go up or down?

As always the onus is on me to provide the data, surely it wouldn't have been hard to provide this yourself...

This is Feb to Feb, most recent data. 4 capitals up, 4 down. Overall the weighted index is slightly up Feb to Feb, but slightly down April (2010) to Feb (as I said prices have been falling since early last year):

April 2010: National city median dwelling price is $460,000
February 2011: National city median dwelling price is $459,000

Of those that rose (Feb to Feb), only 1 is beating the current level of inflation.

Hardly the 'up' cycle you are suggesting occurred....

 

[Wunderbar]

As always the onus is on me to provide the data, surely it wouldn't have been hard to provide this yourself...

This is Feb to Feb, most recent data. 4 capitals up, 4 down. Overall the weighted index is slightly up Feb to Feb, but slightly down April (2010) to Feb (as I said prices have been falling since early last year):

April 2010: National city median dwelling price is $460,000
February 2011: National city median dwelling price is $459,000

Of those that rose (Feb to Feb), only 1 is beating the current level of inflation.

Hardly the 'up' cycle you are suggesting occurred....

Yeah cause house prices move like stock market tickers

 

[Corey Batt]

Could you elaborate Wunderbar?

Hobo-Jo's graphic shows that 4 of the capitals prices decreased, 4 rose, with only one beating inflation. On a national level there was price decreases in real terms.

It clearly goes counter to Tcocaro's view that prices increased.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

Interestingly, I understand that Canberra had negative returns over 2010 for houses, but positive returns for units.

It would be interesting to see the changes based on dwelling type.

 

[Sunfish]

Hobo-Jo is a big believer in precious metals, silver in particular.

Have you checked out the silver price today? It's $37.45 and you don't have to use a micrometer to measure if and how much that has risen, even AFTER inflation. A '66 50c piece is now $12.50 melt value. It was around $7 recently and only $2.50 when I started collecting them. And he invests in junior miners that have good resources.

A X5 gain is quite believable. He admits to starting from a low base but Hey! What's wrong with that? Modest REAL gains beat the heck outa iffy, highly geared assets.

 

[tcocaro]

No its not hard to provide the stats myself but I do that to force you to actually check your figures.. Attached is the stats from residex\abs i couldnt be bothered scanning BIS stats for this exercise.

I dont understand where you got your stats Feb->Feb?? this is a strange time-scale. I suspect you simply have a data source and punched in the time-frame yourself that best fits your argument.

Regardless I take my data from residex\bis\abs\rpdata and only refer to national figures\state figures from tables provided by such sources I dont try and punch in the figures into RPDATA and try and derive the result as this never works exactly.

The stats I show prove again you are wrong, the time scale is calendar year you cannot simply shift your dates to suit your argument.

So unless you can provide a reliable source please stop. You are wrong, ill keep saying it until it sinks in.

As always the onus is on me to provide the data, surely it wouldn't have been hard to provide this yourself...

This is Feb to Feb, most recent data. 4 capitals up, 4 down. Overall the weighted index is slightly up Feb to Feb, but slightly down April (2010) to Feb (as I said prices have been falling since early last year):

April 2010: National city median dwelling price is $460,000
February 2011: National city median dwelling price is $459,000

Of those that rose (Feb to Feb), only 1 is beating the current level of inflation.

Hardly the 'up' cycle you are suggesting occurred....

 

[hobo-jo]

The stats I show prove again you are wrong, the time scale is calendar year you cannot simply shift your dates to suit your argument.

So unless you can provide a reliable source please stop. You are wrong, ill keep saying it until it sinks in.

You made your comment re a prevailing up cycle after the start of the year, yet you decide it's fair to backdate to December figures for the starting point (lol)? I guess whatever suits the point you are trying to make...

The chart I posted is straight out of an RPData presentation, I didn't "punch in" a timeframe, this is simply RPData's latest statistics YOY.

I guess you find RPData to be an unreliable source of data, I hope you don't use any of their services given your issue with their accuracy.

 

[tcocaro]

he didnt say 5x gain he said his net worth doubled a coupled of times...

unless he started with pitance then the amount quickly becomes astranomical.

If it was pitance then who cares, so what if I invest 10k and it becomes 20k or 40k or 80k over 5 years, this really doesnt excite me in the slightest.

Further more this is a property forum, sorry for trying to relate my posts to property rather than the prices of gold, silver or a running bet on how long it will take hobo-jo or Keen to admit they are wrong even slightly.

Sunfish, hobo-jo the only last remaining suspect to pop up is evand its only a matter of time.. perhaps Token but his posts actually makes sense we just have opposing views.

Hobo-Jo is a big believer in precious metals, silver in particular.

Have you checked out the silver price today? It's $37.45 and you don't have to use a micrometer to measure if and how much that has risen, even AFTER inflation. A '66 50c piece is now $12.50 melt value. It was around $7 recently and only $2.50 when I started collecting them. And he invests in junior miners that have good resources.

A X5 gain is quite believable. He admits to starting from a low base but Hey! What's wrong with that? Modest REAL gains beat the heck outa iffy, highly geared assets.

 

[tcocaro]

There is NO point in comparing Feb-Feb with other stats i provided the stats for the year i.e. 12 months of 2010, because you said prices have been falling since the start of 2010 so I provided 2010 figures showing they havent.

You made your comment re a prevailing up cycle after the start of the year, yet you decide it's fair to backdate to December figures for the starting point (lol)? I guess whatever suits the point you are trying to make...

The chart I posted is straight out of an RPData presentation, I didn't "punch in" a timeframe, this is simply RPData's latest statistics YOY.

I guess you find RPData to be an unreliable source of data, I hope you don't use any of their services given your issue with their accuracy.

 

[Sunfish]

Sunfish, hobo-jo the only last remaining suspect to pop up is evand its only a matter of time.. perhaps Token but his posts actually makes sense we just have opposing views.

Tocaro, you have had 16 posts on this thread yet you resent my miniscule input.

Civility and humility are unknown human traits to you.

 

[Wunderbar]

Could you elaborate Wunderbar?

Hobo-Jo's graphic shows that 4 of the capitals prices decreased, 4 rose, with only one beating inflation. On a national level there was price decreases in real terms.

It clearly goes counter to Tcocaro's view that prices increased.

No it doesn't prove anything. Remember those quarterly 'median' statistics which showed South Yarra dropped by 29% in one quarter? Everyone run for the hills!

 

[hobo-jo]

There is NO point in comparing Feb-Feb with other stats i provided the stats for the year i.e. 12 months of 2010, because you said prices have been falling since the start of 2010 so I provided 2010 figures showing they havent.

Seriously hobo-jo stick to gold, silver and other dense metals which you so clearly have more in common with.

I said early 2010 Tim, not the start.

Keep massaging the figures to suit your agenda.
Keep twisting my words.
Keep with the insults.

It all speaks volumes about you, not me...

 

[tcocaro]

this one made me laugh...

I said early 2010 Tim, not the start.

Keep massaging the figures to suit your agenda. I provided YoY figures you provided Feb-Feb when talking about what happened in 2010 who is massaging figures??
Keep twisting my words. early versus start?? hahha is this the sound the bottom of a barrel makes as its being scratched?
Keep with the insults. Youre worse than Keen, now thats an insult

It all speaks volumes about you, not me... agreed

 

[Wunderbar]

Yay let's see who can make the bigger chart! Reminds me of the good old pitchbook days...

 

[tcocaro]

If you found that line you quoted from me as insulting or proof of my lack of humility or civility then you seriously have to toughen up...

Tocaro, you have had 16 posts on this thread yet you resent my miniscule input.

Civility and humility are unknown human traits to you.