The Eye of the Recession's Storm - Robert Kiyosaki (aka, Rich Dad Poor Dad)

The sub-prime mortgage market is a blip compared to the credit default swap market. And this is where I believe, and a few others, the next problem will occur. If the US keeps pumping money into the system then ultimately this is going to cause inflationary pressures and increases in interest rates. Then we have an issue.

Given the tight margins many of these banks run on (particularly the merchant banks) then any default on one of the loans is not only a problem for one bank but possibly for the others because what happened was as follows

Italy company $2B in borrowings
Bank A takes over risk of loan defaulting for $2b. Bank A then sells the same debt to Bank B and Bank B takes over risk of loan defaulting for $2b. Bank A takes a nice fat fee along the way. Bank B then did the same with Bank C and so on.

Now the problem is that this has a cascading effect. If company in Italy defaults then Bank A is left with a $2b loan outstanding. This is what ultimately led to the pumping in of money to the banks because this market is in the trillions not billions. Now is Bank A folds then it flows down to Bank B and then if Bank B folds onto Bank C. The premise was that the loans would not default or if they did Bank A would just pick up the tab. Well the problem is that Bank A and many of the other banks don't have sufficient capital to wear these losses. Particularly when we are talking trillions.

So watch out for credit default swaps. The sub-prime is nothing compared to that market.

If you believe such, then how best to profit from the coming events?

I've read a little more on Kiyosaki so perhaps I can comment.

He is also big on gold and silver. Says that twice in the past America has had a currency crisis, & people bought gold up until the value of gold held by the treasury was worth the same as U.S. currency in circulation. His comodities advisor has calculated that given the amount of currency created since the GFC that if people were to buy gold upto it's 'gold standard value' today it would hit $15,000 an ounce.
A friend who is into RK has been big on silver..since RK's comments on gold & Silver, how has it performed?


wow- never occured to me we were going into a new decade. not much fuss has been made of this. good bye naughties, where are we now, tennies, tenners, tantalising tens? can't til we get to a catchy sounding decade - roll on the roaring twenties!

Me neither..!!
 
A friend who is into RK has been big on silver..since RK's comments on gold & Silver, how has it performed?

Well it's a bit difficult to tell because I think his policy is pretty much to always hold gold as a hedge, and he frequently comments on it. He believes that the world currencies were wrongly taken off the gold standard which has allowed each country to print too much currency whenever there's trouble, so over the decades we have been building towards crisis, which only the financially astute will benefit from.

Having said all this though he was telling people to hold off buying in Feb this year due to the runup. The most accurate I can be about his forecast for gold was that he was recommending gold when the original Rich Dad book came out in 1997 when gold was around $350USD/ounce. It's now $1400USD.

Recent Kiyosaki Comments on Gold/Silver. You may need to create a login.
 
> saving 2 percent per year on over $100,000,000 in debt

You shouldn't believe everything you read. If he substituted that bit with Santa Claus, would it still pique your interest?
 
Redwing

How to profit. Well I agree with the gold and silver thread. Have quite a substantial amount of the physical stuff (vaulted with supplier so not at home so don't come looking :p) and been in at around $500 AUD per ounce. That's been a very healthy return.

Inflation is starting to occur in India and China and with constant bailouts in the US inflationary pressures will in my opinion take hold. This is where physical metals can do nicely. After taking into account the exchange rate and inflation gold in AUD over the past few months has been fairly flat thanks to the rising AUD. So you get an inflationary play as well as an exchange rate play.

Keep the physical metals during the tough times (monetary inflation compounded with asset deflation - particularly in the US) and you could do very nicely. If you adopted the same strategy in the US during the 1970s when inflation took hold you would be extremely wealthy.

So no I'm not doom and gloom about what is to happen but I think I am realistic. QE1, QE2, QE3, etc will all result in one thing. Inflation. If countries could prop up their economies by just printing money without any consequences then they would have been doing it for centuries. But we all know what it does. Now how to pay off the debt. Well the best way is for the US to delate it's currency. This is my only concern with the gold play as a lot of the gains will be offset by a better AUD against the USD. Not sure how to play that one. US is already deflating its currency and will continue to do so. Easiest way to pay off their debt. Problem is though they will destroy the savings and investments of millions of Americans. Oh well they have enjoyed years of plenty so now the boomers will experience years of drought. The sad thing is many don't even realise what is happening. The government could increase taxes and take their wealth but they would be voted out. Or second option destroy the wealth and redistribute it using currency deflation. Smart because most people have no idea what is happening.

Any interesting times for 2011. Thailand continues to grow so happy with those investments and keep some gold and silver and palladium for the inflation hedge. Let's see how we go.
 
I know a lot of Somersofters despise Keen, and his D&G. The man is a life-long academic, with no property investment (and now back to renting). My opinion is academics with little experience in the real world (whether that be in business, economy, etc), are of little relevance.

So have you researched what Kiyosaki did before writing that book?
Have you looked at the claims he made before writing that book?
Keen may be academic, Kiyosaki was an uneducated dunce, though savvy enough to finally workout know what BS the uneducated masses want fed.

And of course he did'nt write much of the book anyway.
 
Keen may be academic, Kiyosaki was an uneducated dunce, though savvy enough to finally workout know what BS the uneducated masses want fed.

An uneducated dunce who has a substantially larger personal fortune than yours. :)
That's the genius of the man. Making money from of the uneducated masses. I'm just trying to also work out how to make money from the lemming brainless Labor voters, the unemployed bogans, and every other seemingly "educated" dimwit. (like the not banned $60 hologram bracelet that apparently give people balance and strength, hehe dimwits). There's a sucker every minute buying rubbish to make money off.

Education is over-rated. Degrees are worth as much as your year 12 certificate these days (so common), and everyone has an MBA. Doesn't make anyone real-world savy.

Keen's renting, little investment. He'll die a poor man.
 
An uneducated dunce who has a substantially larger personal fortune than yours. :)
That's the genius of the man. Making money from of the uneducated masses. I'm just trying to also work out how to make money from the lemming brainless Labor voters, the unemployed bogans, and every other seemingly "educated" dimwit. (like the not banned $60 hologram bracelet that apparently give people balance and strength, hehe dimwits). There's a sucker every minute buying rubbish to make money off.Education is over-rated. Degrees are worth as much as your year 12 certificate these days (so common), and everyone has an MBA. Doesn't make anyone real-world savy.

Keen's renting, little investment. He'll die a poor man.

So almost as appealling and morally attractive as stealing candy from a baby ?
 
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Probably because most people celebrate it a bit early... Like 12 months early.

hmmm - i thought about this long and hard and personally consider that in an hours time we would be in the new decade.

the confusion came when people were celebrating the start of 2000 as the new decade ... but the counting goes 1-10, 11-20, 21 - 30 etc ... so, as of tonight, moving into 11, we are starting the new decade.


omg - i'm on ss 50 mins before a new year. how dull! well, have done the fireworks up close and the dinner and the drinking and put kids to bed. i'm just waiting to watch the midnight fireworks from middle distance as we can see them from our rear deck.
 
the confusion came when people were celebrating the start of 2000 as the new decade ... but the counting goes 1-10, 11-20, 21 - 30 etc ... so, as of tonight, moving into 11, we are starting the new decade.

i'm sure you're right, however there is an alternative which could make sense. if you go back to the very beginning, was the year of the first day known as year one because it's the first year, or was it known as year zero because there hadn't been a full year yet? this would determine where the decade starts now.

of course i don't think they were too concerned about it at the time, and anyway isn't it actually something like four years out?
 
Bit of a dilemma really isn't it.

If we assume BC ended at and AD and hence by default, the Gregorian calendar, started at 0, in much the same way as our numerical system starts at 0, then theoretically, the start of the year that ends in '0' is the beginning of a new decade/century/millennia/whatever.

If you think about the manner in which we count using decimals; 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, etc. (or even fractions for that matter), it's still all 0.<x> until we hit '1', at which point it becomes 1.<x>. So, in that instance 0.<x> is still a valid nr and is considered a valid part of that decalogy (I know. I've created a new context in which to use the word), or series of 10.

Taking that line of thinking into account, it stands to reason that 2010 is actually the beginning of a new decade as 10 yrs have already passed in the old decade, i.e. 2000 - 2001 is actually 1yr. The yr 2001 is actually the 2nd yr.

I know, I know. It's a religious argument.
 
Funnily, I've not heard a religious debate about it, but have had numerous secular light hearted "discussions" on who's right & who's wrong - my conclusion: I'm right.
 
Hubby & I were talking about this the other day. He looked it up somewhere, although I'm not sure where and I can't find it. Anyway.....what he found was that when they started the calander, the year of Birth was 1AD, and the year prior to that was 1BC, however this was done around 300 years after the fact and backdated.

Bearing this in mind, I am sure I have heard either on TV or at weddings/funerals etc, when I have been at Church, when talking about the date, they say "in this, the year of our Lord xxxx".
 
In 2007 the first subprime mortgages began to collapse. In 2011, the second wave is about to hit.

blue

I know the situation with voluntary loan defaults in the US isn't great but banks have been flexible these days and have either been accepting a haircut or have modified existing loans extending the number of years and therefore reducing the loan repayments making them more affordable.

I don't know what is going to happen to the property market there. None does and the US government this time is running out of amo and printing heaps of $. I'm guessing that this very unique situation and the lower US$ will make US property more attractive to overseas investors so there could be some opportunities for people like us if we wanted to buy property in the landlord friendlier US states.

As far as the US economy goes their falling US$ is a stimulus in itself so they'll manage to improve their position but imported goods and holidays will get more expensive for them.

I wouldn't worry too much about this.
If we exclude tourism, the above would not have much impact on Australia's economy or on our property market.
These days even our share market has been conditioned to the bad news out of the US and the EU so sooner or later the ASX will head its own way just like the AUD did.
And I think its about time as well because we have none of their problems.

IMHO
 
Only for those who dont have it or attended without learning anything (dunces).

Yeah, I was one of the ones who hardly ever went to lectures, graduated, and got a grad position with a corporate. That's as useful as a degree gets (getting into your first job).

After that I've used very little of what was learnt in the degree (which is generally too theoretical, with little real-world application).

Well thank for highlighting your own ethics and dishonesty. I've proved my point.
So almost as appealling and morally attractive as stealing candy from a baby ?

Hardly, a baby can't think for itself. A grow adult supposedly can.
Anyway, my ethics are sounds. I was making the point there are a lot of dimwits who will pay money for stupid stuff (even the ones who go to property seminars).
 
Wholly clap! The Financial Review are reporting that the correlation coefficient between China's and Australia's GDP is now 0.98 (98% correlated) compared to 0.25 in the '90s. China's CPI is up 5.1% in a year, they have raised rates twice and signalled more on the way.
 
Wholly clap! The Financial Review are reporting that the correlation coefficient between China's and Australia's GDP is now 0.98 (98% correlated) compared to 0.25 in the '90s. China's CPI is up 5.1% in a year, they have raised rates twice and signalled more on the way.

Correlation is both size and direction, so what you're saying is that China's GDP grows by 1%, ours grows by 0.98%. China's GDP growth is, what, 8-10%? Is ours anywhere near that?
 
Correlation is both size and direction, so what you're saying is that China's GDP grows by 1%, ours grows by 0.98%. China's GDP growth is, what, 8-10%? Is ours anywhere near that?

Haha, that'd be interesting. Correlation is direction and relative size. So if China goes 6, 10, 8, then we are 100% correlated if we go 3, 5, 4.
 
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