The great Oz property crash of 2005.

Fair call - besides i reckon you've got the most potential among many others aged 20-30 after hearing a bit of your background.

Oh - I heard you met someone I knew ... waste of skill/time in a sense (ie me). Between me and the guy you met, there's someone done and dusted and retired at 25 already. Not the smartest guy in the room, let's just say (though his creds weren't bad too).
 
if i was to buy a PPOR id have to take a long position on China, which i would not be comfortable doing, though you can never predict what a govt will do to meddle in markets specifically property.

Australia has ridden a gold boom, a wool boom and now a resources boom and the government has always meddled in all markets, the economy has always been at the risk from overseas economies and government meddling.

Are you waiting for these 2 risk factors to disappear because one will be ever present and the other will be replaced by another as the cycle goes around.

If you buy do you plan to hold or jump in and out as we go through the cycles.

Hope you manage to time your entry if you ever enter the property market.

Cheers

Pete
 
Not sure what the issue of meddling in the markets is... that's the way life and civilisations are. Least they're not riding knights into your city and scything your arms off
 
Australia has ridden a gold boom, a wool boom and now a resources boom and the government has always meddled in all markets, the economy has always been at the risk from overseas economies and government meddling.

Are you waiting for these 2 risk factors to disappear because one will be ever present and the other will be replaced by another as the cycle goes around.

If you buy do you plan to hold or jump in and out as we go through the cycles.

Hope you manage to time your entry if you ever enter the property market.

Cheers

Pete

im not waiting for them to disappear, rather less 'on the table', timing a market bottom is fools play. I dont want to be slave to the job to make ends meet for repayments (and in turn be susceptible to rate rises), im in the process of getting as much of my savings into investments for cash flow with bout 20% on cap growth plays, with other business ventures.. my argument isnt so much as investment property is a no no, its PPOR makes no sense atm for me in Sydney with the amount of travel and other ventures i want to get into, plus the macro factors.

Also melbournian I hope you get to 7figs a year, it is also what I aim to do when im your age, I just dont have to play into the axiom of your PPOR is your first and major investment and everyone has to do it this way to be uber rich
 
Not sure what the issue of meddling in the markets is... that's the way life and civilisations are. Least they're not riding knights into your city and scything your arms off

sadly it is the state of modern society post ww1/depression in the western world, US is arguably the largest socialist govt in the world, it disgusts me.

We have had a brief flicker of laissez faire, non big brother society, maby im too idealistic in believing govts will do the right thing economically/morally not just politically...
 
maby im too idealistic in believing govts will do the right thing economically/morally not just politically...

hmmmm - so somehow you think the government would have been better letting the economy fall into a depression instead of putting out a stimulus package (albeit i don't agree with how it was done)?

how would, letting the economy fall on it's backside, be economically/morally beneficial for the majority of australians?

would it be more beneficial to remove all fhb-ers incentives at a time when housing demand was high, but very little was being built, and you yourself are complaining about unaffordability?

would it be more beneficial if the government didn't rein in inflation by tweaking interest rates (as much as we may groan)?

granted ... there is a lot of politicising that goes on that peeves me off no end, but i believe, at heart, the government does have the interests of the financial wellbeing of the australian people (except for carbon tax!).

if there was no government intervention then we would be no better of as a society than somewhere like india - massive gap between many in abject poverty and a few multi-billionaires.
 
im not waiting for them to disappear, rather less 'on the table', timing a market bottom is fools play. I dont want to be slave to the job to make ends meet for repayments (and in turn be susceptible to rate rises), im in the process of getting as much of my savings into investments for cash flow with bout 20% on cap growth plays, with other business ventures.. my argument isnt so much as investment property is a no no, its PPOR makes no sense atm for me in Sydney with the amount of travel and other ventures i want to get into, plus the macro factors.

Also melbournian I hope you get to 7figs a year, it is also what I aim to do when im your age, I just dont have to play into the axiom of your PPOR is your first and major investment and everyone has to do it this way to be uber rich

7 figs a year? I'm a big fan of dried fruit, but it seems a little low for a full years work.
 
When the govt is lassiez faire look what happens. Lehman Bros, GFC etc. Which needed govt socialist policies to clean the mess up all over the world.

Big business gets bigger and the people suffer big time. We need govt regulation.



We have had a brief flicker of laissez faire, non big brother society, maby im too idealistic in believing govts will do the right thing economically/morally not just politically...
 
i find that a laugh, probably written by a baby boomer..
Gen X.

watch m3 closely, thats what I will be doing going forward... as a young 6 figure earner it is still unaffordable for PPOR and makes no sense fundamentally for me atm, then again what would I know im young and dont own a home.
You're 22 and earn $100k + and think you can't afford a PPOR?

Typical (1988-1993) Gen Y point of view. What makes you think you should be able to at 22? Even at six figures you have to spend a few years saving. All you guys want is everything for nothing, right now.

You know all these Gen X and BB's? You know, the ones you resent because property was so much more affordable back then? Well the vast majority of those people had so scrimp and save for years to get a deposit down. Right now it's less affordable compared to wages, but back then you didn't have the wide range of lenders and loan products.

It's much of a muchness. Give or take. The most important thing remains the same: saving a deposit and buying a home is not a walk in the park for most. Never has been, never will be. Years of sacrifices have to be made.

What makes you think your are hard done by because you can't afford a home at 22?

Arrogant? Not able to acknowledge that hard work and sacrifice is key and has always remained key? How about we just put it down that you are an ungrateful Gen Y? Try to argue this, but at the end of the day you are begrudging the fact that you can't afford a house at 22.



What ive learned: dont argue property fundamentals on a property forum, peoples livelihoods, ego and whole mindset will react violently against it, unless it self reinforces their position.

Also as I always say "there is nothing more embarrassing than dumb people believing they are intelligent"
Yet more arrogance. Does it ever stop?

Like you I'm university educated in a high level degree. I'm sucessful in my chosen field and have been a successful investor for 10+ years.

Drop the attitude champ because the chance of you at 22 being smarter than me are pretty thin.
 
so are you arguing that a 50% property crash is a good thing for current owners cos their yield is now higher? 3% was a random number plucked out as a net yield but was under the current rate achieved at the bank.

If you have a net return can you negatively gear? eliminate capital gain expectation and is it a good investment? Im in the camp of the market being overdone but not crash worthy, more correction.

Balance of probabilities suggests downside or sideways atm (assuming no legislative or other form of govt intervention), so yield would be a driving factor for me, id prefer to sit and wait.

From general point of view it seems posters are either
a) older and have an established portfolio and have it in their interest to shun any negativity or
b) be younger, currently renting with a good amount of savings seeing no value in the market atm (me)

[insert argument: i bought in 1990, and look at me now, im awesome..]


Just as I thought, plucked out of thin air, that said better than one of your text books. Through the duration of this thread your lack of real experience and understanding of property fundamentals has consistently shone through. Its almost as if you took the relay baton off of Belle.

I understand the arrogance of youth (I am not that old myself), but I assure you that if you were to look back at your posts in this thread even just a few years from now, I guarantee you will blush.

Unfortunately this thread has descended into a combination of generation bashing and status play and is no longer constructive.

Adios all, hope to see SOME of you in other threads.
 
A lot of Gen Ys are the way they are because they are young and read too many textbooks. Not to mention their current salary levels just poses too much of a struggle to do anything meaningful.

However, there are a few Gen Ys here who don't post like that, but maybe it's just not apparent to you we're Gen Ys.

I'm not saying all Gen Y's are like that, but there is no question that todays generation (specifically 18-23 rather than older Gen Y's) are overall more self absorbed and ungrateful that any previous generation. And it's not merely a case of the usual old people getting older and chastising the young.

There's been a lot of talk about the younger generation and their seeming arrogance, entitlement, and low work ethic. The general consensus is that they are a product of their environment, namely technology. That's not saying technology is a bad thing (it's great), but it has had an adverse effect on this generation's youth.
 
When the govt is lassiez faire look what happens. Lehman Bros, GFC etc. Which needed govt socialist policies to clean the mess up all over the world.

Big business gets bigger and the people suffer big time. We need govt regulation.

you are absolutely right, there is a lot wrong with big business, but
im not going to go into a whole economic history for everyone in the thread,

but a few brief points..

no we didnt have laissez faire at all, we had nearly the opposite, big business is the inbred corruption where govt and business stimulate each other, look how many wall streets etc are in Obamas team / political contributions etc.

It is actually govt interaction that caused the problem, look at artifically low rates, LTCM, the whole too big to fail culture, its far removed from traditional laisseiz faire and free enterprise.

Also its a culture of government as big brother and cradle to grave carer of the masses that is an issue and stifles competitive forces, independent regulators yes, govt regulators no...

traditionally govt acted as umpire not a big brother nanny state, of course with the socialist idea it is to stop the inequalities of a supposed free enterprise, to stop the greed and selfishness of men in a free market, however the assumption is that to 'control' these greedy folk you are putting in a benevolent, perfectly ethical unselfish govt with no agenda of its own, laughable to everyone.

With regards to stimulus, monetary stimulus yes, if you allow contraction in the money supply under rates of growth you will have issues a la Great Depression where money supply contracted by a third (thanks Fed)...

the bad side of stimulus is the Keynes variety and fiscal stimulus. The whole inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation was debunked in the 70's with our little friend called stagflation (sorry phillips curve its time to leave)... fiscal stimulus while a handy govt tool just produces higher inflation and unemployment problems down the track, as shown over the past 50 years in the US. The essential problem with Keynesian is that its the politicians best friend, they can spend as much money as they want and have an economic rationale to explain themselves. Keynesian got such a large following during and after the depression cos it gave the reasoning why the depression happened and how to get out of it, which politicians jumped on. Keynes, a great man, but his theory is still effectively debunked.

im not going to get into economic debate its tiresome and usually just entrenches both sides in their position with no middle ground.

Poker time
 
if there was no government intervention then we would be no better of as a society than somewhere like india - massive gap between many in abject poverty and a few multi-billionaires.

funny you say that, when India gained independence their model was that of central planning, and only recently adopted more of a free market ideology and thus have seen it have the largest growing middle class in the world.

also Hong Kong, probably the best example of free market (atleast under british rule)... they seem to be going alright considering they have zero national resources.
 
ive got my economics degree honors, starting my masters in eco, done the whole internship with big multinationals selection process yada yada, now work for probably the largest private fund in Australia (no investor cash)... we are not special by doing this, it is quite common among young people

I wouldn't base intelligence on this at all

Well if you're 20-23 years old - what else can you based it on? have you made a million dollars then?
 
the you've done well (i assume). so what's the problem?

no problem or issues - i was responding to some condescending posts by another poster talking down to everyone.

If you're in the corporate line - that kind of attitude will get you no where. Say you have to pitch to a chairman of a bank about an idea - how would go about doing that like that. Personality and people skills counts as oppose to making theories and crunching numbers on a computer.
 
im not waiting for them to disappear, rather less 'on the table', timing a market bottom is fools play. I dont want to be slave to the job to make ends meet for repayments (and in turn be susceptible to rate rises), im in the process of getting as much of my savings into investments for cash flow with bout 20% on cap growth plays, with other business ventures.. my argument isnt so much as investment property is a no no, its PPOR makes no sense atm for me in Sydney with the amount of travel and other ventures i want to get into, plus the macro factors.

OK that's a fair call
 
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