The Mother of All Booms is Coming??

Someone asked Warren Buffett does he think stock valuations are overpriced right now (ie as at 2014/2015). He said on historical measures yes, but he's also not seen interest rates and monetary policy of these levels. If these rates and policies stayed, he said stocks are grossly undervalued.

Take a view on interest rates and monetary policy and the rest falls into place. If you believe these rates are here to stay, buy. If you believe they'll spike, get out.
 
Of course rates will rise. But when and to how high is the big q?

Will there be a rate rise in the next 6 months or will it be like in 2017 2018

And will rates just stabikise at 2% higher then now or what is considered average
 
The crystal ball now says that we have hit the peak in Sydney.....once Melbourne outer suburbs and Brissie moves with the hordes moving from Sydney...the boom is over in Sydney..it will also be helped along by APRA!



What does the crystal ball say now Sash :D
 
The crystal ball now says that we have hit the peak in Sydney.....once Melbourne outer suburbs and Brissie moves with the hordes moving from Sydney...the boom is over in Sydney..it will also be helped along by APRA!

You already called the peak in Sydney three months ago - it has kept going since then. I was kinda with you then and I'm kinda with you this time as well.

These things are not necessarily calculated by logical thought processes though.
 
There have been a lot of very ordinary unrenovated houses listed in my suburb in the last week or two. It will be interesting to see if the extra supply of low end properties will result in lower prices than advertised. Offers over 750 for pretty much anything seems OTT when these houses need at least a 50k Reno.
 
Allo ladies.......Tonibell and Beachgurl ....
this sort of bumping along at the top can take a couple of months....what I am saying jumping in now is the worst..as it is somewhere between 11:30pm and and 12am.

There is no way I would even envisage to perfectly pick the exact top of the market...it is impossible. ;)

The key indicators..is how much prices in Brissie and outer Melbourne rise. If they move like crazy watch the clearance in the Sydney market...it will deflate initially slowly if there are no IR increases or high unemployment. If a perfect storm of IR rises are introduced and they rise quickly to over 7%.and unemployment in Sydney increases to say over 7%...then have money ready to snap up mortgagee sales....

Again many variances...I could of course be incorrect...but regardless a correction is when not a if call. Some of the youngsters on the forum have not seen a correction....hope they are prepared......


You already called the peak in Sydney three months ago - it has kept going since then. I was kinda with you then and I'm kinda with you this time as well.

These things are not necessarily calculated by logical thought processes though.

There have been a lot of very ordinary unrenovated houses listed in my suburb in the last week or two. It will be interesting to see if the extra supply of low end properties will result in lower prices than advertised. Offers over 750 for pretty much anything seems OTT when these houses need at least a 50k Reno.
 
Was just reading the news today and the RBA is considering further dropping the rates, regardless of the state of the market in Sydney...if that happens, it could go on for longer than we thought.
Markets tend to overshoot, not sure we are there yet, but who knows!
 
APRA and RBA are good bed buddies at the moment.....what RBA giveth....APRA taketh....;):D

Was just reading the news today and the RBA is considering further dropping the rates, regardless of the state of the market in Sydney...if that happens, it could go on for longer than we thought.
Markets tend to overshoot, not sure we are there yet, but who knows!
 
Sydney was just ridiculous when I went down there in 2013. I am worried that this continued ridiculous boom is because of the interest rates lowering. I am worried that this continued lowering of interest rates has actually sustained a ridiculous boom and APRA has stepped in too late.

The smart money was moving to Brissie last year. Thats when a lot of my top clients started coming into town. Who can blame them? CF+ properties right off the bat? 3 bedroom granny flats earning $350 a week rent?

The problem is that people are now starting to come to Brissie in droves, and I don't see it stopping any time soon.

I don't know how Sydney can be sustainable though. It is almost as if the money in Sydney is isolated from the rest of the country. Once the money starts to move out of Sydney we will see it stagnate and possible recede a bit.

My main worry is that interest rates have sustained something that should have been over a year ago.
 
Sydney was just ridiculous when I went down there in 2013. I am worried that this continued ridiculous boom is because of the interest rates lowering. I am worried that this continued lowering of interest rates has actually sustained a ridiculous boom and APRA has stepped in too late.

The smart money was moving to Brissie last year. Thats when a lot of my top clients started coming into town. Who can blame them? CF+ properties right off the bat? 3 bedroom granny flats earning $350 a week rent?

The problem is that people are now starting to come to Brissie in droves, and I don't see it stopping any time soon.

I don't know how Sydney can be sustainable though. It is almost as if the money in Sydney is isolated from the rest of the country. Once the money starts to move out of Sydney we will see it stagnate and possible recede a bit.

My main worry is that interest rates have sustained something that should have been over a year ago.

why is it a problem that there is a lot of increased interest in brisbane? sounds like a good thing to me.
 
Sydney was just ridiculous when I went down there in 2013. I am worried that this continued ridiculous boom is because of the interest rates lowering. I am worried that this continued lowering of interest rates has actually sustained a ridiculous boom and APRA has stepped in too late.

The smart money was moving to Brissie last year. Thats when a lot of my top clients started coming into town. Who can blame them? CF+ properties right off the bat? 3 bedroom granny flats earning $350 a week rent?

The problem is that people are now starting to come to Brissie in droves, and I don't see it stopping any time soon.

I don't know how Sydney can be sustainable though. It is almost as if the money in Sydney is isolated from the rest of the country. Once the money starts to move out of Sydney we will see it stagnate and possible recede a bit.

My main worry is that interest rates have sustained something that should have been over a year ago.

... but has Brissie seen growth?? just asking, because we have seen phenomenal growth in Syd and Melb market, but not seen this yet in Brissie, right?? Lots of talk about it happening, and how it should have happened at least 12 months ago, but really I am not seeing this today.

Perhaps Spring?? no idea, but seems investors have been waiting a long, long time for the so called boom in Brissie and have already jumped in, when perhaps it should have been Syd/Melb????

MTR:)
 
I think you know my answer to that. ;)

Thought....I think Brissie will push up strongly once there are jobs growth there...

... but has Brissie seen growth?? just asking, because we have seen phenomenal growth in Syd and Melb market, but not seen this yet in Brissie, right?? Lots of talk about it happening, and how it should have happened at least 12 months ago, but really I am not seeing this today.

Perhaps Spring?? no idea, but seems investors have been waiting a long, long time for the so called boom in Brissie and have already jumped in, when perhaps it should have been Syd/Melb????

MTR:)
 
I think you know my answer to that. ;)

Thought....I think Brissie will push up strongly once there are jobs growth there...

For H&L in Brisbane were would you buy? I understand you were buying old style units in 3-7km around the 300k mark.

Just looking for a perfect storm, get in a H&L now, with anticipate completion in 9-12 months time for a rising Brisbane market...
 
Buy where Sydney investors are not going as much...I have two in Moreton Bay - Deception Bay and Margate.

I am not convinced about Logan...unless you want to make money and get out...

For H&L in Brisbane were would you buy? I understand you were buying old style units in 3-7km around the 300k mark.

Just looking for a perfect storm, get in a H&L now, with anticipate completion in 9-12 months time for a rising Brisbane market...
 
Hi Sash,

Would you know what will make the job market grow/fall in Brisbane ?
What were the main drivers for the last boom in Brisbane or the current Sydney boom ? or does the cycle just repeat every 10years etc ?

Would love to hear you thoughts on this as you have seen the cycles before.

Thanks

I think you know my answer to that. ;)

Thought....I think Brissie will push up strongly once there are jobs growth there...
 
The last boom in Brisbane was caused by migration from Sydney to Brisbane for a better lifestyle due to high living costs. I believe a similar situation may eventuate as well as investors moving to the Sunshine state. I don't think the Brisbane boom will be as big as the new govt has still not addressed jobs.

The one i am worried about Sydney and Melbourne Inner/ Melbourne suburbs...if interest rates rise and the economy slows...will get ugly. I see the same stupid behaviour as last time.

Hi Sash,

Would you know what will make the job market grow/fall in Brisbane ?
What were the main drivers for the last boom in Brisbane or the current Sydney boom ? or does the cycle just repeat every 10years etc ?

Would love to hear you thoughts on this as you have seen the cycles before.

Thanks

I did not say Logan is not promising...Logan has classic boom bust...people who get in the wrong time get creamed. Usually the market is driven by investors.
Why do you think Logan doesn't look too promising ?

Adelaide will get go up at some stage also...
If the boom hits Brisbane then Adelaide must be next, right? Right??
 
Thank you Sash.

I haven't really posted much on this forum but have really enjoyed reading your posts (and the other members'). They are very inspiring and have really helped me kick start my own investing journey....

The last boom in Brisbane was caused by migration from Sydney to Brisbane for a better lifestyle due to high living costs. I believe a similar situation may eventuate as well as investors moving to the Sunshine state. I don't think the Brisbane boom will be as big as the new govt has still not addressed jobs.

The one i am worried about Sydney and Melbourne Inner/ Melbourne suburbs...if interest rates rise and the economy slows...will get ugly. I see the same stupid behaviour as last time.



I did not say Logan is not promising...Logan has classic boom bust...people who get in the wrong time get creamed. Usually the market is driven by investors.


Adelaide will get go up at some stage also...
 
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