The Mother of All Booms is Coming??

Have you not noticed that they all have a vested interest?
Why paste & copy, get your own opinion instead of just agreeing because it's matches your interests as well (as many here do).

lol i thought i'd wake up to a comment like this :D

I do have an opinion!! Didnt have time though to post my opinion because it was late at night and had to go to bed.

I have to go to work in a minute, i will come back some time and give my opinion then. ;)
 
I don't see "the mother of all property booms" quite yet, but agree that it will come. There IS pent up demand AND the population is growing, add to this there is not nearly enough new builds, BUT - and this is the big thing - lending is not nearly as easy to get as it was. This one thing alone is keeping things moving at a more steady rate.

Personally I think prices, for the short term, will move slowly upwards. Rents will keep increasing too. But the minute lending becomes easier, watch out!
 
Melbourne is the standout because it now gets the lions share of immigrants followed by Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.

It also has one of the most affordable houses in the country within 20-30 klms of the city. The prices are similar to Adelaide in the outer suburbs....though there are suburbs in Adelaide which are cheaper.

Great question. I've been wondering this for some time. Why Melbourne?
 
Sorry all, I was referring to what's been happening in "my own backyard" I wasn't even peering over (your side of) the fence!! :eek:
 
"The mother of all booms" is going a bit far IMO - didn't we just have that a few years ago?

If the thread was entitled ""Slow Steady Growth is Coming??" then yes I would agree.
 
According to this Chris Joye article, Melbourne isn't booming per se, just following disposable income. So no bubble, just normal growth. One can expect other states to follow the same long term trend.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Is-there-a-Melbourne-housing-bubble-pd20100311-3ESVJ?OpenDocument&src=is&is=Property&blog=Concrete%20Detail

Truong

"average home prices are actually 4.6 times average disposable household incomes using the largest sales database in Australia and the ABS’s December 2009 National Accounts data"

I'm going to get a job working for Chris flipping burgers
 
"The mother of all booms" is going a bit far IMO - didn't we just have that a few years ago?

If the thread was entitled ""Slow Steady Growth is Coming??" then yes I would agree.

or if the thread was entitled "things look good but who really knows as credit is ridiculously tight, the yanks are history, we rely on china but who knows the fact or fiction there, so things could be bumpy hold on but hopefully property will go up in value if you are fully invested"?

also don't mothers precede children?
 
or if the thread was entitled "things look good but who really knows as credit is ridiculously tight, the yanks are history, we rely on china but who knows the fact or fiction there, so things could be bumpy hold on but hopefully property will go up in value if you are fully invested"?

also don't mothers precede children?

LOL - Love it.

We love to over analyse don't we?

Regards JO
 
The assumption that there is a boom in Melbourne is based on several factors.

1. Auction clearance rate is well above 80%. Melbourne has historically been the auction capital of australia (e.g. around 50% of sales are auctions). High clearance rates correspond to strong price growth since less than 20% of reserves are too high (yes clearance rate actually depends on reserve prices!!).

The auction factor makes it much more public. This is because the big results get published on sunday/monday morning.

2. Each weekend there are a couple of examples of auctions that go way over reserves and seriously high prices paid for high end properties.

See thread dominated by Melbourne and silly prices

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=60079


3. Neighbors who are agents say its both very busy and they are getting prices they are very happy with. e.g. Largest ever monthly sales volumes for well established offices and well in excess of previous best.
 
the yanks are history, we rely on china but who knows the fact or fiction there, so things could be bumpy"?

Things will be bumpy for sure.
IMO the yanks and many other countries are already in trouble because of high deficit and high debt. This debt can only be repaid with tough measures which will affect consumption and growth in general.

I'm not against buying property but we should buy wisely, and should not borrow more than we can afford because higher interest rates are coming.
Even if the RBA does not increase rates by much, the markets could ask for a higher return to justify the increased risk of defaults

IMHO
 
PB - I don't know how you can say undersupply is not a factor or were you referring to immigration in relation to undersupply. If so - agree that immigration is not enough. Sydney however cannot keep up. While Brisbane seems to have gone beserk and over compensated - development in Sydney is stagnant and there really is not enough new stock coming through.
Regards JO

I said "population growth" is not a factor in determining house prices.
Eg
Census Gosford
2006 158,158
2001 154,045
1996 144,840
1991 128,941

Does this growth track house prices?
2001 ->2003 saw prices surge, but pop growth did'nt.

Projections are:
2011 157,000
2016 158,400

Which is relatively small pop growth, yet many of you seem to think that house prices will surge up there.

In the 90's SEQ population grew, but what happened to house prices?
Sydney's population growth is second only to Melb is this reflected in prices?
And I can say the same about infrastructure expenditure.
Though I do wish it were that easy :(
 
If you have population growth, they have to live somewhere. Maybe they can't afford to purchase somewhere, but they can afford to rent. This puts pressure on rentals. Eventually some of these renters will purchase themselves. So, they may not push property prices up as soon as they hit our shores but rather purchase when they can afford, same as everyone else.
 
I said "population growth" is not a factor in determining house prices.

In the 90's SEQ population grew, but what happened to house prices?
Sydney's population growth is second only to Melb is this reflected in prices?
And I can say the same about infrastructure expenditure.
Though I do wish it were that easy :(

Population growth is just one factor. It is an important one, but it won't usually put any upward pressure on prices if supply grows at the same rate. There are many other fundamentals influencing the property market, all working together or working against each other at the same time.
 
Population growth is just one factor. It is an important one, but it won't usually put any upward pressure on prices if supply grows at the same rate. There are many other fundamentals influencing the property market, all working together or working against each other at the same time.

never a truer word spoken - if there is population growth but supply is greater, prices will go backwards. you need to look for supply imbalances
 
Exactly.

Which is why although Queensland has the fastest immigration growth in the country, there is an over supply of dwellings (Brisbane) and therefore a lack of drive in property prices. (In comparison to SYDNEY ATM).

Regards JO
 
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