The next 10 years: Prediction of the market

Brisbane prices did drop 20% with the GFC, or was that 10%, twice. Once for the GFC and then again in 2011 from the natural disasters.
 
Angel
Not sure what Brissie dropped, but I know Gold Coast got hammed some areas as much as 40%

Actually, some areas by circa 50-60 %.

The Gold Coast generally for median and slightly over median house prices at the peak saw falls of around 30 %.

Aside from some very high end homes (over say 3-4 Million and above) there are no specials here any more. The market started climbing off the bottom late 2012 to early 2013.

There is still good buying in the right (infill) areas here. I only speak of stand alone houses as I don't follow the apartment/unit market.
 
Actually, some areas by circa 50-60 %.

The Gold Coast generally for median and slightly over median house prices at the peak saw falls of around 30 %.

Aside from some very high end homes (over say 3-4 Million and above) there are no specials here any more. The market started climbing off the bottom late 2012 to early 2013.

There is still good buying in the right (infill) areas here. I only speak of stand alone houses as I don't follow the apartment/unit market.

Are they cash flow positive (with the currrent prices)?
 
Actually, some areas by circa 50-60 %.

The Gold Coast generally for median and slightly over median house prices at the peak saw falls of around 30 %.

Aside from some very high end homes (over say 3-4 Million and above) there are no specials here any more. The market started climbing off the bottom late 2012 to early 2013.

There is still good buying in the right (infill) areas here. I only speak of stand alone houses as I don't follow the apartment/unit market.
What about the lower end free standing houses of gc and surrounds, say 450k

I've looked at gc a few times over the years and every time I get spooked as I ask myself, how do I know it's not going to fall 40% like in the past
 
Brisbane prices did drop 20% with the GFC, or was that 10%, twice. Once for the GFC and then again in 2011 from the natural disasters.

This is micro thinking (I mean this in terms of the reference, not in terms of you:))

The thread is about 10 years, and obviously its about the market overall. As with any markets there are micro markets that may move independently of the overall market.

I'm sure during the GFC there were a couple of shares that did ok during the volatile period, but im pretty sure that would be of little comfort to the majority of participants in the share market during this time.
 
What about the lower end free standing houses of gc and surrounds, say 450k

I've looked at gc a few times over the years and every time I get spooked as I ask myself, how do I know it's not going to fall 40% like in the past

No one can know what type of corrections will manifest in the future here or anywhere else. This place runs harsh cycles. From my simple observations it appears to affect units/apartments more than free standing houses. The glut that they build here tends to be high rise. It appears that much of the product has been absorbed and so there will be more demand for these soon and the developers have planned for new projects to come online in the next few years, although there is still a paucity of cranes in the sky.

The other types of property that get hit hard are the upper end houses. The lower end (say 450 K) that you speak of and the median or slightly above median houses were less affected. By my observations (as a tourist in those years) before we moved here was that the GFC hit sentiment hard and of course tourism fell; not helped by a high dollar. This is still largely a tourism industry city.

@ tropic: the median price point give or take is likely to be nearly neutral on current prices, however remember we have historically low interest rates. That 450 K price point that TMNT has proposed will get you newer type product on the northern Gold Coast around Coomera and Pimpama. The former has had a Westfield and new town centre promised for the last decade. I don't know when it will actually come to life. The latter still has plenty of land around it so I personally wouldn't invest in Pimpama.

As I've mentioned in other threads, I would be buying older (infill) houses and forsaking some of the yield for the capital growth potential. Suburbs like Southport and Labrador and probably Parkwood. The closer to Griffith University and the new hospital, the better.

I purchased two here last year. One waterfront older style home near ours for the price of a dry block house. Near neutral on a circa 90 % LVR and another not far from the Uni and hospital that is grossing low seven's however it has a DA for a commercial property that I may or may not proceed with. I feel its higher use is to build a block of units to cater to staff for the hospital/university as they are walking distance. There is a DA next door for 180 apartments (of a higher caliber than what I would build) so I'm waiting to see when that will commence and see which option would be best to proceed with.

Despite the market having started to move here, it has only just commenced its upswing. Once the dollar normalizes to say circa 75-80 cents and local tourism recovers and international tourists find the exchange more palatable, I reckon the Gold Coast will once again fire up.

I don't buy apartments or strata properties (unless they are a small block of units and I can own all of them) so cannot comment with any accuracy on that market.

Hope this helps.
 
What about the lower end free standing houses of gc and surrounds, say 450k

I've looked at gc a few times over the years and every time I get spooked as I ask myself, how do I know it's not going to fall 40% like in the past

There are never any guarantees but I would say if you buy the right product you should be OK. For example Nerang is started to rise (houses) perhaps 6 months ago now, if you look hard enough you may find cash flow positive properties, however you would not touch units because there is an oversupply.
Its now the beginning of a new cycle, where this market has bottomed off, but as mentioned its also about buying the right product.
 
Actually, some areas by circa 50-60 %.

The Gold Coast generally for median and slightly over median house prices at the peak saw falls of around 30 %.

Aside from some very high end homes (over say 3-4 Million and above) there are no specials here any more. The market started climbing off the bottom late 2012 to early 2013.

There is still good buying in the right (infill) areas here. I only speak of stand alone houses as I don't follow the apartment/unit market.

This market reminds me of Mandurah in WA, similar scenario, it is only now starting to recover, in particular lower end. Once again though you still need to buy the right product. High end stuff on the canal in Mandurah is fantastic buying at the moment $1M+ as there is so much supply and no takers.
 
This market reminds me of Mandurah in WA, similar scenario, it is only now starting to recover, in particular lower end. Once again though you still need to buy the right product. High end stuff on the canal in Mandurah is fantastic buying at the moment $1M+ as there is so much supply and no takers.

And yet WA pre mining conditions till now must have been pretty good.

So maybe the smart players took there money and run.

There were posts on this forum from about 5 odd years ago saying how good the returns have been.

Maybe those returns were from 15yrs ago to about 5 years ago. Those initial players made a stack.
 
And yet WA pre mining conditions till now must have been pretty good.

So maybe the smart players took there money and run.

There were posts on this forum from about 5 odd years ago saying how good the returns have been.

Maybe those returns were from 15yrs ago to about 5 years ago. Those initial players made a stack.

7 years would be more accurate, as 2009 was well after the bust.

one house I had in 2002 went from $600k, to $2m in 2007, sold at $1.55 in 2010, and still currently sitting at $1.55

another went from $280 in 2004 to $500 in 2006 to $280 now.

it's really all over the shop
 
Back
Top