The Reverse Somersoft Leading Indicator

X

xactly

A prominent poster* has talked about the somersoft leading indicator as a secret ingredient to his realestate success.

The theory being, people talk before they buy and so increased buzz on SS pre-empts the boom.
Seems to have worked for Sydney, not so much for Brisbane.

So.... I was wondering, given the massive Shares threads and the monster that is the high yielding thread, whats it foreshadow?

actually the last time this happened, the crash followed shortly after some of the the property nouveau riche SSoftians moved into shares, heavily share margined their heavily margined property and crashed and burned.

So I have been wondering over the last couple of weeks:

all the chatter on US stocks, and shares in general and a thread on a short but disastrous foray of a SS poster trading the Forex:eek::eek::eek:......

Is the reverse somersoft leading indicator here again?

watch out folks......



*OK, See Change, but i was trying to be mysterious:cool:
 
xactly said:
actually the last time this happened, the crash followed shortly after some of the the property nouveau riche SSoftians moved into shares, heavily share margined their heavily margined property and crashed and burned.

eek::eek::eek:......

Is the reverse somersoft leading indicator here again?

watch out folks......
Click to expand...

Interesting question. Would love to know more of the crashing and burning. :p
 
got a mate that trades the dax, glued to his phone all night long. One time he lost a few hundred grand and then slowly made it back. These days he will make 10, lose 5, lose 15, make 40 etc. I asked him how much over all he would make in a year and he said if he was honest it was probably break even... I think a light bulb went off and now he has his evenings back!
 
xactly said:
So.... I was wondering, given the massive Shares threads and the monster that is the high yielding thread, whats it foreshadow?

:
Click to expand...

The investors will be fine, the traders will be fine.

Those that think they are investors, but are not, wont.
Those that think they are traders, but are not, wont.

Capital always moves over time to the most deserving. Sometimes it takes longer than at other times, but it ALWAYS happens.
 
Yeah agree should be wary of a share correction. Last time gfc, my shares were doing so well and i didn't take profits before the crash. This time, I try to take profits every now and then to protect myself.
 
Ausprop said:
got a mate that trades the dax, glued to his phone all night long. One time he lost a few hundred grand and then slowly made it back. These days he will make 10, lose 5, lose 15, make 40 etc. I asked him how much over all he would make in a year and he said if he was honest it was probably break even... I think a light bulb went off and now he has his evenings back!
Click to expand...
LOL!

That's what every gambler I've ever know says!!
 
xactly said:
So.... I was wondering, given the massive Shares threads and the monster that is the high yielding thread, whats it foreshadow?

actually the last time this happened, the crash followed shortly after some of the the property nouveau riche SSoftians moved into shares, heavily share margined their heavily margined property and crashed and burned
Click to expand...

Interesting thought

I think the issues applying here was people gaining expertise in one area and then thinking they'd be automatically good at other things AND trusting a guru without really understanding what was going on .

I remember going to a presentation of the particular person and was impressed by how smooth it was . Once I understood the system , I thought what a great system ..... for the promoter . There were commissions everywhere and almost regardless of your situation he had something for you ...... I was quite surprised at the number of people who got involved.

Share forums will always have threads on property and vice versa . The property thread on Aussie stock forums is one of the longest threads you'll find , but in reality I don't think it represents a serious discussion . If I wanted to make serious conclusions about the share market , I'd be over there

as it doesn't take many interested posters to create a long thread ........ ;)

Cliff
 
Ausprop said:
got a mate that trades the dax, glued to his phone all night long. One time he lost a few hundred grand and then slowly made it back. These days he will make 10, lose 5, lose 15, make 40 etc. I asked him how much over all he would make in a year and he said if he was honest it was probably break even... I think a light bulb went off and now he has his evenings back!
Click to expand...

I was having a conversation with our accountant a few years ago and he had one client who considered himself an expert trader . when he added it all up at the end of the year he was down 200K .

I've spent a lot of time studying shares and have done some trading and lost , but when I later back tested my system over the period I traded , it was the only time frame i could find where the system lost ... not sure what that meant.

Intellectually I'd like to master share trading for the challenge , but I'm now getting to the point where I don't think I'll worry as I have been ( so far ) made money fairly consistently on property .

cliff
 
xactly said:
actually the last time this happened, the crash followed shortly after some of the the property nouveau riche SSoftians moved into shares, heavily share margined their heavily margined property and crashed and burned.
Click to expand...

who went in heavily margined and crashed and burned?

were you reading my posts where i was heavily leveraged and going short when things went pear shaped?

if so - that's the opposite of crash and burn - ask mal.
 
xactly said:
So I have been wondering over the last couple of weeks:

all the chatter on US stocks, and shares in general and a thread on a short but disastrous foray of a SS poster trading the Forex:eek::eek::eek:......

Is the reverse somersoft leading indicator here again?

watch out folks......

:
Click to expand...


Seems to me that there is always one or two threads on shares in this place. No more interest now than in the past 10 years I reckon. Only difference now is the talk seems to be about how well they are doing. At the start of the GFC there was threads on shares. At the end of the GFC there was threads on shares.

I can remember in the past members requesting a sub forum just for shares. Which always gets declined which I agree with.

I enjoy talking about shares in here because most people into shares are investors. On share forums, there are a lot of traders and speculators.


See ya's.
 
There are probably only about 10 regular posters in the HY thread.

The indicator will be new participants enquiring about margin facilities and tips. 6-12 months from here ;)
 
Aaron Sice said:
who went in heavily margined and crashed and burned?

were you reading my posts where i was heavily leveraged and going short when things went pear shaped?

if so - that's the opposite of crash and burn - ask mal.
Click to expand...


not everything written is about you.

neither was that.

Congratulations though, on your successful timing.

Im not against heavy leveraging at the right time. was margined up myself at one stage but am paying it down like crazy now but the risk is there and sometimes overlooked by euphoria.'

the share threads are getting euphoric in some parts
 
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topcropper said:
Only difference now is the talk seems to be about how well they are doing.

On share forums, there are a lot of traders and speculators.
Click to expand...

Yes. agree with both statements. Thats why I enjoy the share threads here too.

When the shoe shine boy gives you tips its time to get out of the stock market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_P._Kennedy,_Sr.

Might i suggest that successful property only investors talking stocks are the equivalent of the shoe shine boy?

There a a few posters on this forum who obviously are successful at both, Some who are successful at only one and some who are successful at neither.

Its up to the individual to work out who they are and whether to take their advice/opinion or not.
 
A week ago I had a 17yo kid at Woolworths checkout tell me Binary trading was the only way to make real money! :eek:

I couldn't bite my tongue any harder! :rolleyes:


pinkboy
 
see_change said:
Intellectually I'd like to master share trading for the challenge ,

but I'm now getting to the point where I don't think I'll worry as I have been ( so far ) made money fairly consistently on property .

cliff
Click to expand...

Those two statements are interesting.

I would have thought share trading is more of an emotional challenge than intellectual.
Warren buffet had some thoughts in the latest berkshire annual letter
See point #3 below

http://cuffelinks.com.au/ten-great-quotes-buffetts-annual-letter/

BTW I HIGHLY recommend the free cufflinks newsletter, its a thoughtful read.

and your other comment is something i have been mulling on lately:
Property is more of a fiddle than the share quality trust dividend collecting game.
what happens as one get older and more decrepit?? what is the 'out" for an illiquid high maintenance asset class?

please note Seech, Im not suggesting your faculties aren't keen, but you must look after a number of gently failing oldies in your practice, who aren't as sharp as they were and might not realise it yet.

How you plan for inevitable physiological decline as an investor?
we aren't all going to be as sharp as a tack at 92.

a property portfolio takes as much watching and maintenance as a real property.
 
oc1 said:
Errrr, no. Why do you seem desperate to draw such a conclusion?
Click to expand...

Because this person is comparing a property buy and hold investor to a sophisticated trade share trader, but they ignore that most can not share trade successfully. majority of people who own shares are mum and dad investors who hold forever
 
oc1 said:
Errrr, no. Why do you seem desperate to draw such a conclusion?
Click to expand...

Not desperate, merely musing.

We are herd animals and Ive noticed a movement in the herd.
It may be random nothing.....or not...

there may exist a causality.
I saw this happen once before, will it happen again?

if so then....
I do think that the time to take risks is not now.
Im not pulling out of the markets and buying a bomb shelter and a gun.

but Im paying down debt, the margin loan is gone. Im still feeding my shares and Ips with cash.

but Im not putting so much in the shares portfolio, its going more to the offsets.
 
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