Confusing....Bumpy....Exciting....Opportune.
Great points Keith.
And while we're at it, if we all talk ourselves into a recovery then so be it. Even good fundamentals need some momentum from sentiment to carry on the charge.
These times are Confusing....Bumpy....Exciting....Opportune.
I speak only of Melbourne, where I have most knowledge, at present there is a lack of good stock in above median areas and hence prices are flying compared to even three and six months ago. The bottom end and just below median has been bubbling along despite the "recession we never ever had to have, and didn't ......because it's different here"
As far as unemplopyment, I 'm not sure how they arrive at figures, being mindful of statistics and lies and confuguring anything to suit the bias of the author/journo/govt, however if hours are down and saving jobs in this regard then whilst it's not ideal, it is certainly better than losing "whole" jobs to save full time positions and the impact that has on "whole" families and "entire"households......
better to tighten the belt that lose the trousers all together.
As for the stock market, if it's all hot air making that balloon rise, then "hay whilst the sun is shining." In that arena, need to be nimble however, lest any other deleterious outcomes come out of the US from their smoke and mirrors financial (debt) products shenanigins.........and the sentiment will drive down our market............and hence provide more future opportunity
I see the mortgage re-sets to come there (in the USA) affecting us perhaps with money/credit supply and this may stangle the ability to accumulate IP's .......we may still feel the squeeze here as money dries up. There may be owner occupier demand and investor demand, however if funds are tight in a year or two moving forward, transaction volumes will fall and values might stagnate for a while. This will then bring more pent up demand and wind that spring up nice and tight.........and when it's let go, values will rise sharply as another mini-boom begins.
Right now and the next few months moving forward, I am having everything re-valued to drop my conservative LVR's (in the bank's eyes) even lower and have LOC's at the ready for long stock investing and to purchase further IP's.
In this climate, whilst I'm looking at comm, I would be pleased to fund the purchase from my own (resi equity) bank using resi criteria and interest rates. When the true bonanza begins and the next up-cycle tsunami is in full swing, I will re-fi the comm on it's own terms and take my cash/equity back for other things......so many options, so many choices.
Whilst we are not out of the woods totally, the back burning has begun and these are exciting, albeit confusing times. These may be the halcyon days we look back upon in five years and proclaim,
woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Night follows day, contraction follows expansion, a slump follows a boom which follows a slump. It is always darkest before the dawn.......and dawn is certainly trying to break through at the moment.
Sustainable???
I may be wrong, however always erring on being prepared for the worst with modest LVR's , perhaps expect a few more clouds to darken the horizon, and then the cycle will again begin with pure daylight. It might still be bumpy at times and not IMHO the time to max out LVR's just yet with credit supply (and cost) uncertainty, however we are not far from the king tide that shall rise all ships.
If I'm being too careful, that's OK, as imy net worth will then be increasing anyway with numerous zeroes at the tail end on a monthly basis.
As dawn slowly breaks and some clouds appear from time to time, I always think.....This too shall pass!
