The self fulfilling prophecy of Steve Keen

Hi DJ

www.financialsense.com

Bit D&G and very US centric, but definitely warned of it a couple of years ago.

Cheers

Shane

Thanks, Plusnq. I should have been a bit more specific - I was after proof of SK's predictions, rather than everyone's predictions of doom and gloom - I scanned the page and didn't see SK's name anywhere. The reason for this is that right now I'm being bombarded with 'he predicted this year's ago' and I would like to see evidence of that. Anyone could predict the downturn in the US economy - that's been coming for a while. I don't think anyone foresaw the impact of the credit debacle though.

Cheers!
 
From your perspective and values that might be the case. But he might not share your or my materialistic (or other) values.

After all, he is an academic and they are a law unto themselves.

By the way, his apartment is in Surry Hills. Surry Hills is a very, very trendy inner city Sydney suburb. Used to be run down being right next to Redfern but these days you cant move for the models, cafes, Porsches etc.

Also, how do you know he is about to sell at a loss? Similar to Lizzies post yesterday that he is receiving payment for his media interviews. How does she know that? Any proof? It's probably not true at all.

You could be right; he could be very wealthy and keep it well hidden. If that's the case I like him a lot more. Nothing worse than someone who is not wealthy trying to look it.

But the guy's nearly 60 (could be older?) and still living in a mediocre apartment? Even the ultra-modest Warren Buffet lives in a house.

I vaguely remember the quoted selling price being a poofteenth above the buying price - around $10k or so? After factoring in buying and selling costs and interest on loans - loss. Although, in his case it's a PPoR, so the numbers are a bit less of a relevence for most people.

The thing is, if he's so sure 40% of properties' values will disappear, and he's selling to avoid the massive loss, what's he gunna put the dough into instead? That'd make more interesting news, unless he says "cash is king". :rolleyes:

I'm 99.9% sure Lizzie was tongue-in-cheek about here post by the way.

Mine was simply making some sarcastic observations about the guy and a bit of fun at his expense. I'm surprised the mods didn't delete it for being irrelevent. Sorry; pet whinge for me these days.

Ya gotta admit; S.K does come across as a bit extreme on all this stuff he's spruiking with no visible signs of runs on said board. Get someone like Harry Trig on the teev saying the same thing and I'll really listen with both ears.

S.K could be right to a degree. I'll do as you will EV; take it all in, evaluate it all and make up my own mind without too much emotion.
 
Hi DJ

Sorry.
To me he seems a bit of a Johnny come lately as Peter Schiff and Michael Panzner have been banging the risk of subprime drum for a long time.

Cheers

Shane
 
There is no need to panic/sell if you have a real stable job which
is recession proof.

There is no need to panic/sell if your IP has healthy yield.

I think the reason behind the recent media beat up D&G is because

1. Bank need to write new loans
2. RE agents need a sale to make commission

None of this can happen if sale volumes are way down.

Given the climate, buyers will not, or cannot afford, to pay high price, or even post 2003's price (Sydney). So they are focusing on influencing vendors to lower prices to make a sale.

What worries me is the commodities prices ...
http://commodities.thefinancials.com/
Is this the end of the resources boom ?
 
Given the climate, buyers will not, or cannot afford, to pay high price, or even post 2003's price (Sydney). So they are focusing on influencing vendors to lower prices to make a sale.

What worries me is the commodities prices ...
http://commodities.thefinancials.com/
Is this the end of the resources boom ?


China has just posted 9% growth, however the Chinese market was sold down because it dipped below double digits! :eek: Given that 7% of that growth is internal, well, the resources boom isnt over quite yet.

Evand, in SA anyway, the Council rates Valuations from the Valuer General's Department are always perhaps 15% below what you would get if you actually sold. So, if the 40% drop is based in what a Real Estate Agent might guess the sale price to be, then that is hardly as dire are what the Valuer General's rate might be. Taking a Conservative view, I have always looked at the Valuer General's valuation as being the 'price' to go by.
 
I don't think anyone foresaw the impact of the credit debacle though.

You must read different economics blogs to me? :confused:

Which commentators do you read, just out of interest? Because frankly, the ones I've been reading for years (the ones that did see what was coming) were once dismissed as nothing more than doom-mongers...

So I take it Prof Keen is not on your reading list. But are there any others on your list that do say things that might conflict with what you hope the future looks like?
 
Quote Pollyanna / Max Carnage?

Question to Steve Keen

"I know you've said that you expect a period of general deflation - I agree that is the most likely outcome. But would you concede that there's a slight possibility that we might squeeze through this narrow window of opportunity (while inflation remains positive, GDP growing etc) by slashing interest rates? Might we see one more enormous credit cycle before we're 'had it'?"

Max,

Is this you? If so do you think that the slashing of IR's could create one more credit cycle and boom? I think this is what Shadow and Michael Yardney are expecting. It seems you are entertaining it as a possibility?

Cheers :)
 
This is just another example of giving one media story credibility because it aligns with our existing beliefs while bagging others that dont.

How can a story based on crazy predictions be credible?
This guy ignores government interventions, ignores the fact that humans have the ability to adapt and markets can change and continues to talk nonsense.

I don't doubt that economies worldwide are contracting but the extend of this contraction is unknown and NONE can tell if we will have a recession in Australia and how long lasting it will be.

And we are talking about recession and nothing more, and this guy comes along and talks about depression and one which will be lasting for many years?
Excuse me, which planet is he from?
 
Why is it "crazy predictions"?

It can certainly happen, just because you dont think it can (or dont want it to) doesnt mean it is a crazy prediction.

Beside that, every single prediction made on this forum, in the media and at every conversation daily in this country pretty much ignores government intervention.

But government intervention hasn't stopped recessions previously and probably wont again.



How can a story based on crazy predictions be credible?
This guy ignores government interventions, ignores the fact that humans have the ability to adapt and markets can change and continues to talk nonsense.

I don't doubt that economies worldwide are contracting but the extend of this contraction is unknown and NONE can tell if we will have a recession in Australia and how long lasting it will be.

And we are talking about recession and nothing more, and this guy comes along and talks about depression and one which will be lasting for many years?
Excuse me, which planet is he from?
 
The other thread was locked for some reason...

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=472472&postcount=178

Originally Posted by Max Carnage

Originally Posted by Shadow
The RBA has stated that the worst of the credit crunch is probably past us.
And yesterday their boss said "the likelihood of a global catastrophe has in fact declined over the past couple of weeks". That's a direct quote.

This tells me that even he believes that not only is "global catastrophe" a possibility, but there is still a chance (>0%) that such an event occur. So "global catastrophe" is at one end of the 'possible spectrum', your chart is at the other. I say this because for it to become reality, the rate of credit growth would not merely have to bounce back to 2007 levels (it's recently declined to about half that), it would have to accelerate to a much higher level and remain here.

Not necessarily. We could see a decline in turnover, while prices continue to rise. Or we could see prices in most of Australia flat or falling, while Sydney prices rise. I expect a combination of all three...

- Increased credit growth (but not necessarily back to 2007 levels).
- Falling prices in Perth. Flat or falling prices in some other Australia cities.
- Rising prices in Sydney, on lower than normal turnover.
 
My understanding is Sim locked it as there were too many repetitive threads on the Steve Keen theme. He left a couple of them open so you guys could bore the rest of us rigid.

:D

Cheers

Shane
 
I'm shocked - the intellectually bankrupt crackpot idiot award goes to…..

OK - Steve Keen has got a lot of press on this forum, and on mainstream media shows.

I had a read of his blog - this is the ramblings of a extreme left wing socialist, and not an economist. I fear he is using his "position" (for the want of a better word) as a soapbox for his luny left ramblings.

His assertions (I kid you not - he actually writes this on his blog!!):

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2008/10/11/the-panic-of-2008/
I propose three such reforms, in full knowledge that they have Buckley’s of being implemented now–but hopefully they will be considered more seriously when this crisis reaches its second or third birthday.

These are:

1. To redefine shares so that, as do corporate bonds, they have a defined expiry date at which time the issuing company repurchases them at their issue price;
2. To impose “caveat emptor” on mortgage agreements, so that the lender’s security is limited if poor credit evaluations were done of the borrower’s capacity to meet the payment commitments in the contract (this will be further explained below); and
3. To base house price valuations on a multiple of the imputed yearly rental of a property, rather than its potential resale price.

What utter nonsense!!

On 1.) he does not examine if this should apply only to ASX listed companies or to all entities taking the corporate form. Should the mom & pop milkstore be forced for follow this rule? Or only the "greedy corporates"? And who actually owns the company in this event if every X years all shares are bought back at par (assuming anybody would ever invest in shares until this hairbrained scheme)? And where would the money to buy back all shares actually come from!!! Ummm... clue - it isnt shareholders equity - maybe more debt?? How do shareholders participate in the upside of the company (the whole purpose for equity financing)? Any what would happen to voting rights and corporate control?
He needs to actually do some reading about the history of the corporate form, and its evolution, before spouting this crap.

On 2.) Is this for all lending or only "little people lending to moms and pops"? A more worthy analysis would be a review of the consumer credit code and associated legislation, and incremental proposals for change. And also an analysis of the various legal aspects of unconscionable conduct (which banks have been stung with before). I suspect he actually doesnt know anything about business, law, or politics, however (or economics for that matter).

On 3 - what can I say aside from WOW!!! What a plan. So will this only apply to resi property? What about all assets? Should BHP shares always trade on the same multiples of earnings too? This ignores basic economic theory. The house/share/etc.. with higher rental growth prospects will need to sell for higher multiples of earnings. How will this work - a house in a new estate or premium Toorak property - all on the same multiple? And if the multiples are so low - people will be lining up to buy houses to live in, will miss out, and will need to rent. Rents will then reflect the ownership premium, and nobody will be able to afford to rent.

It actually amazes and disturbs me that a man who was interviewed on so many avenues of mainstream media can be so radically left wing, and so ignorant of pretty much everything.

His D-grade uni should speak with him about his views - I know if I had an economics degree from his uni I'd quietly burn it!! :)

This guy is the Paris Hilton of economics (and this is insulting Paris!!)
 
the guy is an economic terrorist. seriously, I wonder if he could be locked up under anti-terrorist legoslation? his extremist views are threatening national security
 
The other thread was locked for some reason...

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=472472&postcount=178



Not necessarily. We could see a decline in turnover, while prices continue to rise. Or we could see prices in most of Australia flat or falling, while Sydney prices rise. I expect a combination of all three...

- Increased credit growth (but not necessarily back to 2007 levels).
- Falling prices in Perth. Flat or falling prices in some other Australia cities.
- Rising prices in Sydney, on lower than normal turnover.
On 'the worst is over', weren't the RBA thinking the same thing only two months ago?

Reserve Bank deputy governor Ric Battellino says he believes the worst of the credit crisis is over.

Mr Battellino was giving evidence before the House of Representatives Economic Committee in Sydney on competition in the banking sector.

Bank losses from the US subprime crisis and the credit crunch have reached nearly $600 billion globally.

But Mr Battellino told the committee that he thinks the tide has turned.

"My feeling is that the worst is behind us there," he said.

"I mean the write-offs that banks are making in America and Europe have actually lessened in recent times.

"So there's no doubt more to come but my feeling is the big blips and losses are behind us now."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/14/2335086.htm

I don't know why so many people take the word of suited-up public servant economists as gospel. I think I'll stick to listening to Nouriel Roubini, who has called it correctly so far and thinks the worst is still ahead of us.
 
hi Ausprop
funny world we live in this little rock.
just for your information one mans terrorist is another man freedom fighter. and next time you look out a window you will see that we do still live in a relatively free part of the rock.
this is not the case for other parts of this world.
we have been trying
some say not very hard and some say to hard
to keep those little freedoms we have from being thrown in the bin.
now we may not like what people think and say
and there is hell of alot I don't.
but the one thing that I do like and I hope it ever gets taken away ( thou I think it will as time goes by and people forget wars and the reason that people fought in them)
and this is a very major one of our freedoms
and thats the freedom of speech.
now people can say what the hell they like about a person view for me
but the one thing for me that is very important is that they have the ability to say there views.
like him or not or for that matter like her or not.
I beleive that we fight for their right to have that view and to be able to say it in this free piece of the rock of ours.
and there is a very old saying that sticks and stone can break my bones but words can never hurt me.
this is true but to gag and watch our freedoms been taken away can hurt just as hard as those stick and stones and for as long as I can stand up for the freedom of speech I will.
so though I don't as a rule flame any post.
to call a person a terrorist( and there are alot on this rock of ours and some for me fall into that freedom fighter groups and the country they are in they are seen as terrorists) for giving his views to me is aim at that freedom which I hope you never see taken away. as I can list places that
that freedom is not there.
I will read peoples posts but be mindfull of the fact this is free open board. and as such you do need to sometimes say that these are my strong beliefs and when one of those come on a board to clarify your position and freedom of speech is one of the highest in my list.
and for those that don't know not everyone on this rock is a nice person.
and thtey will steal or take not only your property out thru the window they will also try to steal those freedoms by stealth or by gun
 
the guy is an economic terrorist. seriously, I wonder if he could be locked up under anti-terrorist legoslation? his extremist views are threatening national security

Grossreal,

I'm sure Ausprop is being a bit sarcastic - but this Keen guy is basically crying "bomb" in a crowded theatre for the sake of it.

I truly feel that in this case there may actually happen to be a small fire in the theatre by coincidence, but that doesnt absolve him from responsibility for the resulting crush and injury to the innocent by screaming "bomb". Read his blogs - its basically like getting an extreme left politician to preach about structural reform on TV - but in this case people mistake him for an economist.

I'm a big supporter of freedom of speech and I actually blame the media for not researching this guy properly.
 
Plenty of others saying the similar things to him all over the world. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Nouriel Roubini, Nicholas Nassim Taleb, Peter Schiff, Yves Smith (the last two were on SBS the other night).

Just yesterday there was a bloke from JPMorgan Chase saying unemployment will reach 1 million.

I think Keen is a little over the top, but his advice - get out of debt as quickly as possible - needs to be said, and has to counter other senior popular economists (Saul Eslake, Craig James, etc) who won't say this as they are employed in the business of lending.
 
Back
Top