The transition from feral to fashionable

Over the last fifteen years, we’ve seen many suburbs that were widely thought of as feral, suitable only for bums, junkies and the like, move up the pecking order to become not just respectable but desirable. In Melbourne for example, Richmond and Collingwood are now exciting inner city burbs that have vastly different public profiles than they did a decade ago. Other areas like Frankston seem to be “on the improve” and this could probably be said for many suburbs around Australia.

Such gentrification, as we investors like to call it, has coincided with a period of low interest rates, high wages, high employment, national prosperity and economic growth.

Question: What should we expect to happen to these suburbs in a tougher climate with lower employment and stretched finances? Particularly, those suburbs that are “on the move” but have not yet completed the transition from feral to fashionable.

Will the drug dealers move back in?

Any thoughts?
 
Such gentrification, as we investors like to call it, has coincided with a period of low interest rates, high wages, high employment, national prosperity and economic growth.

Hi ffc

Interesting topic.

I have long been promoting Noble Park to anyone looking to 'get in before the price rises'.

I see the suburb as an absolutely wonderful minestrone of cultures, people from all over the Globe. Walk around Noble Park in the middle of the day and see the colour and vibrancy, and just a short drive away, try and get a parking spot at Springvale! You would swear it was Carnival there, every day!

When I first started in Real Estate, waaaaay back in 1975, I recall driving around to appointments at night (not everybody had phones, and mobile phones hadn't been invented: It was Life on Mars, remember?) and visiting families in the inner city areas, tiny, old, houses jammed in between factories. Often the only English speaking person in the household would be the seven year old child.

These families, through sheer grit and determination, bought houses in Brunswick and Preston or Abbotsford or South Yarra, and after a few years bought another, usually a bit further out, and often bought whole streets of houses or acreage and built mansions (with lots of concrete pillars - and vege patches in square edged vege plots).

Everybody worked.

Everybody saved.

These suburbs were dark at night because everybody was in bed early for an early start in the factories.

Now, the factories are in areas where people need cars to get to work.

Noble Park, Springvale and other colourful, congested areas are the breeding ground for the next generation's affluence.

As people acclimatise to the Australian way of life, and realise that they can buy land, buy houses, build a fortune, create a dynasty, they will do it as all the generations of migrants have done before them.

I come from a family of migrants. The first female in my line was born to settlers in Geelong in 1837. Every male has been a foreigner. Just because I speak like Chipps Rafferty doesn't mean I don't 'remember' what it must have been like for people coming here and starting from scratch.

But what I do know, is that the areas close to where people live when they first get here undergo enormous transformation because of these 'New Australians'. Their energy, their determination, and their sentiment for their first neighbourhood, transforms those neighbourhoods.

Feral neighbourhoods are usually so becuase of low education and low household income earning potention. As time goes by, the education level rises, earnings increase, the neighbourhood gets a few sidewalk cafes, the DINKS start to see it as a 'first home' area, buy and renovate, then comes the 'infill' housing boom, when people are so attached to the neighbourhood but don't want to renovate a 1960s triple fronted wire cut cream brick veneer, and find it's cheaper to knock it down and start again.

But one thing I have noticed: New arrivals spend no money on gardens. The drought hasn't helped, but concrete gardens are not fashionable now, bare dirt is. There aren't even vege gardens, not even lemon trees!

This next wave will build quite differently to the previous Southern European contribution. Apartments and other taller buildings will be the norm. Seriously, as far as the Eastern Suburbs are concerned, I would put my money on Noble Park.


Cheers
Kristine
 
Oh, Kristine, your story takes me back to my roots. When I was 10 years old, we moved in with my Grandmother in Brunswick...quite a comedown from East Burwood...so my mother thought. :rolleyes:

My school chums were Greek immigrants, who concreted their back yard and built vege patches and grew olives and grapes. My best friend's parents (Greek) worked really hard to educate their 3 daughters, one of whom bought her parent's house years later. All 3 kids got university degrees, and Mum was a domestic and their Dad a labourer/concreter.

Now my best friend bought back into Brunswick about 15 years ago. She knocked down the old cottage and built a mansion. And the other daughters have done similar things in the area. I guess they like the suburb they grew up in...tis close to all varieties of amenities. So some of the gentrification has come about for sentimental as well as other reasons.

BTW....the parents now live in Noble Park! Go figure!
 
My Dad grew up in Richmond (VIC)and his Dad was a scrap metal merchant. What I find really interesting is that they were very poor, not even hot water, but owned an acre of land in Richmond.It shows how much things can change.I wish they still owned it today.
 
Totally agree with Kristine.

If you look at Springvale, you'll see million dollar McMansions next too old almost uncared for weatherboard houses down some streets. The migrants who move there decide to stay, refresh and build.

Keysborough is the same as well, with the new estate, the east-link and the proposed Dingley freeway coming through. Haileybury College Keysborough campus is a great attraction for the whole area as a whole.
 
A family member had inherited a dump in Lennox St, Richmond about 15 years ago opposite the housing commission towers. A much poorer Gary Sweet (actor) had a cottage a number of houses away.
Back then only the young and adventurous would dare venture toward Victoria Street for a meal - all this talk of cat meat and stuff. Five years later, Richmond would be targeted as one of Pauline Hanson’s “ghettos”.
A friend who married a Greek girl from the area didn’t care about the negative press about the Vietnamese and bought 3 houses . Today, that friend still resides in Richmond and is the envy of his peers. He walks to abundant eateries, has cheap fruit and vegies and walks to work (something he can excel at because he doesn't have to suck up).

The people that were in Ms. Hanson’s targets now define parts of the area.

It still has it’s rough edges though – the local police suggested my friend not send the kids to the public school because there’s a lot of crime and delinquency due to the public housing.

It almost seems obvious that Richmond would flourish; surrounded by suburbs such as Toorak, South Yarra, Hawthorn, East Melbourne and the CBD – how could you ever go wrong? I don’t think the clock can ever be turned back on Richmond now.

So you don’t really care about Richmond because it’s so hard to buy into now. And if I come to Melbourne, it’s too hard to get a table because it's so popular. You want to know the “next Richmond”. My tip is Coburg.
 
I clearly remember my grandmother in 1993 (then a frail and sometimes confused 92 year old in a nursing home) holding my hand and eanestly saying "don't buy in Redfern". This was during one of her more lucid moments. Quite a contrast between Redfern during her lifetime and the leafy North Shore she was used to. A pity that my property purchase was causing her angst though from her point of view Redfern would have always been feral.

15 years on and the basic 3 bedroom terrace I bought for 155k has more than quadrupled in price.

Houses Home Price Guide® Rating 6 mths to Mar 08 Redfern
$645,000 Median Price

Redfern is looking less feral every day. With all the $ the NSW govt and Sydney City Council are throwing at it I can only see more positive change.


Ajax
 
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