Long time lurker, since the email list, first post.
Today I was catching a train at Town Hall station in sydney and I saw a bunch of people giving out free "magazines". Upon closer inspection, I was pleasantly surprised that the prominent display stand behind the handouts was non other than NII(the infamous henry kaye group). The NII people looked to be early to mid thirties, and were actively soliciting recruits to their "free initial seminar". The "magazine" that was being handed out was quite a laugh, it had in BOLD lettering, Consumer Alert and also warned of the dangers of incorrectly using deposit bonds, which i though was quite funny, considering the position of henry kaye.
Anyway, this unsual event got me thinking, i have recieved so many unsolicited approaches from developers and such organisations attempting to extoll the virtues of investing upon me, but this soliciting in peak hour at town hall was the most brazen yet. I really believe it is a sign. A sign that the biggest idiot may have been reached.
In the dotcom craze on the NASDAQ, and to a lesser extent on the ASX, there was towards the end only one driving factor, that a bigger idiot than you will buy the stock for a higher price than you. Now i do not know whether this is the case in the sydney NEW UNIT developments, but I suspect that this point will soon be reached. Even more surprising will be that this point will be reached not by a tightening of monetary policy but as a consequence of the boom itself.
I've always wondered whether this is possible, that interest rates can be low AND housing prices can fall, and this exact scenario has happened i believe in both Germany and Japan. People who have a better understanding of those markets can fill me in on the exact circumsance of each.
My experience of the dotcom boom is that Towards the end of a boom, the biggest factor affecting share price is confidence, there will be a series of "dead market bounces" in which the price will stagnate and those seeking to "get in" will always push the price up, however inevitably one time, the market will not bounce and the fall will happen. Right now I see similarities in the sydney unit market with the dot com boom, confidence, or expectations of future capital gains is the biggest driver, as confirmed in a lot of the marketing literature by developers. the little bounces in the market is harder to see, i wonder if anyone can help me out here.
However a sydney unit price fall will affect all property in sydney and surrounding areas, even discouting all fundamentals, but just focusing on the sentiment or confidence level.
If some of the veterans of the property busts of the 80s and earlier or overseas can see if my theory has some basis in empirical fact, then i would be grateful. As i confess i don't have as much experience of property as some other members of this board.
Today I was catching a train at Town Hall station in sydney and I saw a bunch of people giving out free "magazines". Upon closer inspection, I was pleasantly surprised that the prominent display stand behind the handouts was non other than NII(the infamous henry kaye group). The NII people looked to be early to mid thirties, and were actively soliciting recruits to their "free initial seminar". The "magazine" that was being handed out was quite a laugh, it had in BOLD lettering, Consumer Alert and also warned of the dangers of incorrectly using deposit bonds, which i though was quite funny, considering the position of henry kaye.
Anyway, this unsual event got me thinking, i have recieved so many unsolicited approaches from developers and such organisations attempting to extoll the virtues of investing upon me, but this soliciting in peak hour at town hall was the most brazen yet. I really believe it is a sign. A sign that the biggest idiot may have been reached.
In the dotcom craze on the NASDAQ, and to a lesser extent on the ASX, there was towards the end only one driving factor, that a bigger idiot than you will buy the stock for a higher price than you. Now i do not know whether this is the case in the sydney NEW UNIT developments, but I suspect that this point will soon be reached. Even more surprising will be that this point will be reached not by a tightening of monetary policy but as a consequence of the boom itself.
I've always wondered whether this is possible, that interest rates can be low AND housing prices can fall, and this exact scenario has happened i believe in both Germany and Japan. People who have a better understanding of those markets can fill me in on the exact circumsance of each.
My experience of the dotcom boom is that Towards the end of a boom, the biggest factor affecting share price is confidence, there will be a series of "dead market bounces" in which the price will stagnate and those seeking to "get in" will always push the price up, however inevitably one time, the market will not bounce and the fall will happen. Right now I see similarities in the sydney unit market with the dot com boom, confidence, or expectations of future capital gains is the biggest driver, as confirmed in a lot of the marketing literature by developers. the little bounces in the market is harder to see, i wonder if anyone can help me out here.
However a sydney unit price fall will affect all property in sydney and surrounding areas, even discouting all fundamentals, but just focusing on the sentiment or confidence level.
If some of the veterans of the property busts of the 80s and earlier or overseas can see if my theory has some basis in empirical fact, then i would be grateful. As i confess i don't have as much experience of property as some other members of this board.