TIME TO SELL ????

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From: Gee Cee Clay


Have not been on here much of late.

Spent from 25/12 to mid January with NSW Fire Brigades. Mostly at Helensburgh.
Then no phone line for past 2 weeks.

But have been busy getting a couple of properties ready to sell.

In my opinion the market is HOT.
How long will it stay that way?
Is it wise to take the money now, hold on, or just follow the crowd that are stamping on each other to buy.

At playgroup last week 2 mothers are noe out looking for investments. Another one is building a investment.

Any opinions??

Gee Cee

What was that saying about when the butcher & shoe shine boy start buying?
 
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Reply: 1
From: Michael Croft


OK I've just cleaned my crystal ball.

Boom (and decreasing yields) to continue for 6 to 12 months followed by flat period of 2 to 3 years. The first 0.5% hike in rates will stop most would be property investors in their tracks and bring the boom to an end. Some price falls in areas where there is still large numbers of units in the pipeline (just watch inner Melbourne units, inner Sydney units and even inner Canberra units).

People searching for higher yields will look to Adelaide, Perth, Canberra and the larger regionals which will give these a bit of a shove, perhaps another 10% or so this year.

Anyway this is only my opinion and not to be relied upon in any way shape or form, seek independent professional advice etc etc etc.

Michael Croft
 
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Reply: 2
From: H T


yes gee cee, I believe as soon as everyone is in the mad buying frenzy, that's the time to start selling any stock you think would be better out of your hands and taking the cash.

I'm in the process of selling a flat in bayside melb that i purchased last march/april when the sky was falling down, remember when it was THE BIG RECESSION IS COMING!!!. things were quieter then, could have made 20-25% in those 10 months by purchasing carefully inner bayside

dont care about the cgt as ill be on the look out for more motivated sellers in the future and that flat was a great buy from a woody. I have my buy and holds and wont unload them.

All im praying for is an interest rate increase to scare the beejesus out of the 3-4% gross return crew.

cheers
HT
 
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Reply: 1.1
From: Colin Mills


Who is seeing the glass half full? Wishful thinking perhaps? Too many IPs? See my comments on your earlier post. The most optimistic outlook is a flat market for Syd/Melb till the rates start kicking in during the second half of this year. Rental market is far too weak in Sydney for prices to suddenly take off.
 
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Reply: 2.1
From: Dale Gatherum-Goss


Hi!

Personally - no!

I believe that you buy property and never, ever sell. This is because when you do, you pay the real estate agent his commission first, then, you pay the solicitor his fees and then the tax office puts out their ugly mitt to ask for CGT.

You get what's left, if there is any.

Then what do you do? Like most people, you would either waste the funds, or, invest elsewhere.

Keep the properties, and whether the storm that will inevitably come. In the meantime, use the equity to buy investments in more properties, shares if you will, or whatever you believe will make you a dollar.

Having said all of this, I also believe that each of us should have a clearly defined goal and plan that we're working towards. As part of this plan, an exit strategy should be in place to sell your investments when you are ready.

Have fun

Dale
 
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Reply: 2.1.1
From: J Parker


I'm with you Dale- unless you can expect a HUGE profit (after all costs considered) why sell?
I guess the only other reason I'd sell would be if I had a DOG of an IP ie:

Doesn't rent easily
Outgoings always higher than income
Growth consistently poor/going backwards
Cheers, Jacque :)
 
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Reply: 2.1.1.1
From: Always Learning


Anyone else care to forecast the next interest rate will rise? Q2 or Q3 this year?

I think it would be a great idea that we get together and petition the government for the removal of negative gearing against PAYE income, then pray to a higher powers to raise interest rates 2.5% before year end. I would love to flush some chickens out!

Basically if your typical inner-city cottage is getting 4% gross rental (3% or less NETT) and interest rates rise to 8%...I would suggest this would be enough to start a mini panic! Who in this group would see this as good news or bad?
 
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Reply: 1.1.1
From: Michael Croft


Yes Colin my glass is unashamedly always half full, in fact overflowing at times, that does not make me naive as one of my motto's is "expect the best and prepare for the worst". I still believe that nothing drastic will happen to property in Aust whilst the interest rates remain low. I do agree with you that should rates rise the party will be over and some will have the hangovers they had to have.

Seriously though can you see the boom ending at the moment, ie right now, without some sort of shock? What with; consumer confidence on a high, retail spending up, interest rates low, a US recovery on the horizon, the reserve bank ready to jump on inflationary pressures (which are easing at the moment), housing affordability good, the long term prognosis for the global economy is good (baby boomers reaching their peak economically) and so on. I just can't see it ending without some sort of shock (oil price, anthrax, Japan Inc. imploding etc) more of a fizzle and flat for several years. Having said all that, I am prepared for a bust just the same having already started a revaluation campaign whilst we are on this high.

As to Gee Cee's question of 'time to sell?', the only answer can be "if that's part of your strategy". It's not part of mine so I won't be and I am still buying that which meets my criteria.

Michael Croft
 
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Reply: 2.1.1.1.1
From: Alan Hill


Gee Cee,

I'm still tentatively looking at buying this year.

I've certainly increased my range of potential areas and property types though and I would prefer to get something that I can do some reno on. If the market flattens further I should still get some Capital gains from it with a little bit of extra sweat(if I ever finish this bloody backyard!). See...... yourself, Michael and others have inspired a few of us!

Also 'good on you' for that work you guys did at Helensburgh. I have some very good friends at Stanwell Tops......didn't get quite the same coverage as Helensburgh but I think you'll agree they had a terrible time of it. Their little girl is still really upset about the whole thing......fire came through...he was still there trying to put out fires on the roof etc. and with his wife and little girl in Sydney they had no idea if he was dead or alive. I guess,as passionate as we all are on this Forum about property(Eric excluded....), at the end of the day, they're a means to an end and can always be replaced......people can't.

Three cheers to you guys......job well done!


:)
 
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Three Cheers for Gee Cee

Reply: 3
From: Owen .


I was reading through this thread and then realised that Gee Cee was one of the bodies out there battling the bushfires.

I mountain bike in the Royal National Park and Helensburgh areas nearly every week and I know first hand the destruction it can cause and the huge effort involved in fighting it. I saw every inch of the destruction in '94 and in the years after.

I'd like to thank Gee Cee for all the work he and his fellow bushies put into fighting the fires and in saving all that property and peoples home. Fantastic stuff.

Owen

"Gambling promises the poor what property performs for the rich – something for nothing"
 
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Reply: 2.1.1.1.1.1
From: Owen .


I guess I should read to the end of a thread before posting in future.

Well said Alan, couldn't have said it better myself, well I actually said the same, well...never mind....



Owen

"Gambling promises the poor what property performs for the rich – something for nothing"
 
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Hupip Horray

Reply: 3.1
From: Robert Forward


Thanks Gee Cee. We are all proud of you for putting yourself on the line out there.

Cheers
Robert
 
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Hupip Horray

Reply: 3.1.1
From: Simon H


Good on you Gee Cee and all the other people who battled the fires you all did a fantastic job !!.

Simon H
 
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Hupip Horray Traumatised GC

Reply: 3.1.1.1
From: Gee Cee Clay


Yep it was big. After 21 yrs with the NSW Fire Brigade X/Mas night was something I have never seen and will most likely never see again.

At one stage a wall of fire as wide and high as you could see just went over the top of us. Another fire pumper had all of it's plastic beacons and fittings melted as well as all the paint blistered.
Makes your life flash past pretty quickly!!

As to property. Being the old conservative fart. I am still developing for re-sale and $ flow. However some places that I have held for yrs have now finally almost doubled in value. So I am taking the $ & running. Reducing debt and being conservative.

Do the developments, but be safe!!

Time to have a life as well.

If I make it to the pub crawl I will bring some photos from X/mas night and January.

And yes it is not only the children that carry the trauma of it all.

Happy investing

Gee Cee
 
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Hupip Horray Traumatised GC

Reply: 3.1.1.1.1
From: Robert Forward


Hi Gee Cee

It would be great to catch up again, it's been awhile. Looking forward to seeing some of those photos. The whole experiences of fire fighting the bush fires sounds very memorable, and not necessarily a good memorable experience either.

Cheers
Robert

The Sydney "Freestylers" Group Leader.
 
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Hupip Horray Traumatised GC

Reply: 3.1.1.1.1.1
From: Sergey Golovin


I think some of'm will get paid as well by the Government? The once who suppose to be at work, $150 day, and volunteers will miss out?

Is it the case Gee See?

Serge.
 
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Hupip Horray Traumatised GC

Reply: 3.1.1.1.1.1.1
From: Gee Cee Clay


Actually I am with the Town type Brigade.
NSW Fire Brigades.

I get paid as soon as the beeper goes off.

The Rural Fire Service are the people that really do it for just the love of it.

They talk of rivalry between the two organisations.

But in reality out in the field we all just help each other to get the job done.

Especially under major emergencies such as X/mas 2001.
 
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