Timing it right to beat the property clock. What time is it in your state?

From:
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,23599,26164565-5002261,00.html

NSW is on the brink of a housing crash caused largely by the firsthome buyer grant and overzealous lending by the banks.

This article is the biggest load of biased drivel that I've read in a while. Why trot out Prof. Doom & Gloom Keen to comment on where he sees the Sydney market? of course we all know his ranting proved to be nothing but WRONG - and now we are asking his opinion again? gimme a break!

Then front a Buyers Agent for Melbourne that is experiencing good times? (hey Buyers Agents are having good times in Sydney too) and then get Tim from RP Data to comment on other cities? :confused:

The article might had some shred of credibility IF the same group were asked their views on all cities.
 
Well you know WA stands for 'wait awhile"......:)

Even more true (if there can be such a thing) now that you guys don't even have daylight saving time. :p

Maybe we can get Keen to take a hike (I mean trip) over your way.;)
 
I agree fully with that article.

My first priority when buying property has always been 'when', with 'where' 2nd and 'what' a distant third.

Property is way overpriced atm, especially in Sydney and is due for a correction. If it wasnt for the low rates and huge stimulus and the market was left to its own checks and balances, it would be falling now.

Its all out of kilter and anyone buying now is in for a disappointment. Anyone encouraging others to continue to buy in this market has an agenda.

Of course, all the above is only my leaned opinion.
 
From:
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,23599,26164565-5002261,00.html



This article is the biggest load of biased drivel that I've read in a while. Why trot out Prof. Doom & Gloom Keen to comment on where he sees the Sydney market? of course we all know his ranting proved to be nothing but WRONG - and now we are asking his opinion again? gimme a break!

Then front a Buyers Agent for Melbourne that is experiencing good times? (hey Buyers Agents are having good times in Sydney too) and then get Tim from RP Data to comment on other cities? :confused:

The article might had some shred of credibility IF the same group were asked their views on all cities.
But why would they lie to us ? What have they to gain? How can they profit from a boom here in QLD? Surely the advertising would only account for a moderate proportion of their income (news.com that is) ?:rolleyes:

Saturday's Courier Mail had a classic on the bouyant market- it was thought the FHOG boost was an artificial boom but we were re assured by some agent or another that the market has held up now that the boost has finished. He knew this 2 days after the withdrawal of the boost! I am emailing the tossa for his pick for Melbourne Cup as he can obviously see into the future. Wot a winker.
 
Property is way overpriced atm, especially in Sydney and is due for a correction.

wow this opinion is quite a stand out. If anywhere was set for a huge run I would have picked Sydney. the collpase in finance has white anted industry there but am sure somehting will fill the void.
 
Anything that is not sensationalism does not cut it. If it can't be "BOOM" it has to be "DOOM".

A story is a story, regardless of the truth. We all know there are hidden agendas, be it political or self-motivated.

Prof. Keen has the same affect on you Prop, as KRudd does on me.:eek:

And thanks for your skinny opinion Evan., here I was thinking you'd come around.....

Regards JO
 
Property is way overpriced atm, especially in Sydney and is due for a correction. If it wasnt for the low rates and huge stimulus and the market was left to its own checks and balances, it would be falling now.

Its all out of kilter and anyone buying now is in for a disappointment.

We mustn't be able to read the tea leaves as well as you evand, cos we just put an offer in for a Sydney property. We're over the moon with our selection, and are hoping, if the Vendor accepts, we can buy into the Sydney property market. We think your opinion of Sydney property being overpriced atm is 100% inaccurate.
 
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I'm heading to Sydney in a few weeks for a bit of a location scouting roadtrip. Regardless of the "when", there are always attractive deals for those prepared to put in the effort and act boldly.
 
I'm heading to Sydney in a few weeks for a bit of a location scouting roadtrip. Regardless of the "when", there are always attractive deals for those prepared to put in the effort and act boldly.

I agree with you Rob, there are always deals in any market. :D

Sydney has been flat since 2003 and some areas have seen ~ 10% growth in 2009. I think it is primed to go - but hey what would I know?

Either way, if you buy something cf+ or neutral, then who cares when the growth comes?
 
From:
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,23599,26164565-5002261,00.html



This article is the biggest load of biased drivel that I've read in a while. Why trot out Prof. Doom & Gloom Keen to comment on where he sees the Sydney market? of course we all know his ranting proved to be nothing but WRONG - and now we are asking his opinion again? gimme a break!
I wouldn't be surprised if Prof Keen repeats the same act next time he is asked to go on "TV media spinners",just because he was wrong in the small timeframe he set,does not mean he was wrong over the next 5 years his only mistake was he set his time frame too short, but then again from the person who bangs the for sale sign in the front of the property to everyone else along the food chain in everything linked to property only see it one way the "Sky's The Limit", just have to wait and see:)..willair..
 
Sydney has been flat since 2003 and some areas have seen ~ 10% growth in 2009. I think it is primed to go - but hey what would I know?
Either way, if you buy something cf+ or neutral, then who cares when the growth comes?

This has been the argument since 2003.
Sooner or later you'll be right, then we can call you a guru.
You can also appear at Mr Yardney's seminars as an expert who (like him) predicts the market.

And it's the same reason RIO, ABC, Centro etc were great buys at half price.
If your cashed up or low leveraged, then sure.
But considering most people here are buying with LMI and not CF+, they spent years paying to be in a flat market. And that's with the gov giving 24k to FHBs.
 
Karina's a Victorian. I'm not surprised she found a way to be negative of Sydney's property market though I am surprised she put her own market at 12 midnight.

All very loose journalism in my opinion. Nothing factual, just a bunch of unrelated self-interest opinions.

news.com.au has some issues. Its been a long time since they published something worthwhile. They seem to be propaganda sensationalists trying to sell stories to the lowest common demoninator. One week its doom, the next is boom with never a pause in between. Drivel...

Same website, polar opposite opinion just a week back:

No property plunge looming - experts

news.com.au said:
PREDICTIONS of a looming plunge in property prices are unlikely to come true any time soon, according to two of Australia’s most senior economists.

A round table forum, published in today's Your Money lift-out, has heard that while our house prices are among the world’s most expensive, “our own backyard is completely different” to the US and Britain where prices have fallen heavily in recent years.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said supply and demand issues would underpin property prices, but some areas would fare worse than others.

“We’ve got the fastest population growth of any advanced country in the world, and really up there with some of the developing economies, faster than a lot of the Asian economies,’’ he said.

“We’re not building enough houses, so there’s a housing shortage."

Its important to discern between the different authors and their vested interests and credentials when making claims.

Cheers,
Michael
 
What time is it? .........it is daylight savings here :p

There are markets within markets and sub-markets within them.

Ostensibly I don't see any further correction in a generic sense. Lower end with FHOG scaling back might soften or track sideways and then there is a case to be put forward that investors may pick up the slack.

The higher end took a hammering with the stock market bears and economic climate/correction and has since bounced back.......at least it has around bayside Melbourne where I live..........it has slam dunked :D

As for the future, property has never been afforable, particularly if the prosepctive buyers have over-inflated expectations and must have it all now in exactly the location they wish to be, or they must have brand new McMansion with theatres and outdoor rooms larger than life. Many generations prior, people started out where they could and upgraded. So the instant gratifiers can either keep renting where they would like to live or buy somewhere else to get their foot in the door.

We still have a 70 % owner occupier rate here in a generic sense. In the UK and other parts of Europe, it is as low as 40-50%.....hence many more tenants. This may occur here also.

Property is not only driven by investors, owner occupiers predominate and as it is a basic human need (and we are told that there is an under supply), I don't see the sky falling in.

I am not suggesting it's blue sky and everything is roses, however fundamentally, we are chugging along fine. If interest rates rise and some over-extended FHO struggle, then there will be some nice IP's to pick up......watch this space ;)

Having read (a few months ago) The Great Depression Ahead by Harry Dent, the title is far more bearish than the book's contents. Harry Dent does clarify that Australia is far better poised to emerge relatively scar free from the smoke and mirrors of the sub-pime mess and financial derivative products that were more akin to Ponzi.

It is credit here (from that fallout) and ultimate development funds that are harder to source and yet we have a shortage of stock............augurs well for upside to the suply and demand scenario me thinks.......and for the rents that (we as investors) collect.


Personally I cannot see a crash here in Australia...........perhaps softening in FHOG driven outer suburb fringes with little or no amenity that might see its purchasers struggle with rate rises whilst settling for a brand new (shiny) box and the obligatory high end Falcodores, and theatre systems whilst notching up plenty of credit card use.

So whilst I am not off to tell the king that the sky is falling in, I have been sounding like a broken record when I caveat that one needs to keep portfolio LVR's conservative moving forward. Now is not the time to be an uber-bull and max out LVR's and servicibility.......those days will come however not right now.

This only my humble opinion, and there are others that are happy to be more aggressive with their loans moving forward. It all depends on one's situation, pockets, stage of life/investing and master plan.

What time is it?....................It is time to accumulate sensibly and look back in a decade and wished we had bought more :rolleyes:
 
Its important to discern between the different authors and their vested interests and credentials when making claims.

Cheers,
Michael

you mean it's important to discern a Victorian commenting on Sydney market, or a Welshman commenting on the Victorian market, or Anyone commenting on the WA market not FROM WA.......?

why do people have to BEAT the market all the time? i'd like to see someone commenting on the ways to invest WITH the market - when to spot the bottom has formed and trade with the upcoming trend.

as in, buy high and sell higher.... i think more people would understand this than specualtive bottom-fishing.
 
Its important to discern between the different authors and their vested interests and credentials when making claims.

which is especially important to do so when reading posts here. fortunately though its easy to pick those who are always saying now is the time to buy (either because things are only going to go up, or because theyve finished going down, either argument works...and for the most part its not surprising their opinion given the industry they work in), or those who are forever holding out for a major correction which may never come. in the end everyone has to make their own decisions and live with them (or live with not making them).
 
Property is way overpriced atm, especially in Sydney and is due for a correction.

The Sydney median is 20% lower in real terms than it was in 2003. Are you saying you believe Sydney is due for another correction, on top on the 20% correction experienced over the past 6 years? If that was true, why was the Sydney market beginning to surge again in 2007 (briefly interrupted by high rates and the threat of a GFC in 2008) and why is it surging again in 2009?

You say property is overpriced? Compared to what? What makes a correction 'due'?

If it wasnt for the low rates and huge stimulus and the market was left to its own checks and balances, it would be falling now.

We had relatively high interest rates, and much less stimulus, in 2007. Left to its own checks and balances, property prices were surging then.

If it wasn't for the high rates and threat of global financial crisis in 2008, that surge would have continued uninterrupted.

Now those threats have passed and we're back to business as usual - i.e. prices rising.
 
We had relatively high interest rates, and much less stimulus, in 2007. Left to its own checks and balances, property prices were surging then.

If it wasn't for the high rates and threat of global financial crisis in 2008, that surge would have continued uninterrupted.

Now those threats have passed and we're back to business as usual - i.e. prices rising.


I agree fully with this and is definitely the case within the suburbs in the Blacktown council areas.
 
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