too early? my four year old could'a told you that.

[Aaron Sice]

http://kineticsglobal.com/economist/sites/default/files/PriceActionRBAJumpedGun161209.pdf

 

[PeterC]

if your 4 year old had todays data 2 weeks ago then maybe he could have told you that. and a lot of other interesting things.

if they met in jan then i think there wouldnt have been a rise in dec given it was a bit 50/50 - there has to have been some element of 'if we dont rise now we wont be able to till feb' in the rise and the risk if things getting a bit too exciting if they were to hold.

arent they paid enough to meet in jan or is there some other reason for this?

 

[Aaron Sice]

if your 4 year old had todays data 2 weeks ago then maybe he could have told you that. and a lot of other interesting things.

if they met in jan then i think there wouldnt have been a rise in dec given it was a bit 50/50 - there has to have been some element of 'if we dont rise now we wont be able to till feb' in the rise and the risk if things getting a bit too exciting if they were to hold.

arent they paid enough to meet in jan or is there some other reason for this?

maybe you haven't seen the GDP data? up 0.5% year-on-year - what a huge increase, worthy of at least another 75bp....

not.

 

[Ausprop]

C'mon BC... we can defy the entire western world!!

 

[keithj]

maybe you haven't seen the GDP data? up 0.5% year-on-year - what a huge increase, worthy of at least another 75bp....

The RBA is forward looking, not backward looking. The GDP numbers are what has happened, and are therefore not relevant to the cash rate in the future. Current conditions and past conditions have a lower weighing than expected conditions.

The future is likely to be better than the past judging by leading indicators such as business & consumer confidence, Westpacs leading growth indicator, job ads, etc. By raising early the RBA is attempting to prevent an asset price bubble and high inflation.

If they raise early, then it's less likely that they will have to raise as high.

 

[Aaron Sice]

The RBA is forward looking, not backward looking. The GDP numbers are what has happened, and are therefore not relevant to the cash rate in the future. Current conditions and past conditions have a lower weighing than expected conditions.

The future is likely to be better than the past judging by leading indicators such as business & consumer confidence, Westpacs leading growth indicator, job ads, etc. By raising early the RBA is attempting to prevent an asset price bubble and high inflation.

If they raise early, then it's less likely that they will have to raise as high.

but the RBA are a reactionary force, not predictory. one minute they say "data looking forward" and the next is "last 3 month's inflation figures".

same way they were reactionary with the last 3 rate hikes in 07 - they weren't looking forward then!!!

 

[keithj]

but the RBA are a reactionary force, not predictory. one minute they say "data looking forward" and the next is "last 3 month's inflation figures".

Are you saying they look at what has happened & is currently happening, and decide to adjust rates based on that ?

Or are they a bit smarter & think a little way ahead, since they know that a rate rises takes 3-6 months to filter though to the economy.

same way they were reactionary with the last 3 rate hikes in 07 - they weren't looking forward then!!!

Inflation was high in 07 & they expected it to go higher, accordingly they put up rates. They were right, inflation did continue to rise.

 

[craigb]

Yep! i agree BC , your 4 year old could have said , NOT YET! but thats because he mixes with real people , the RBA does not!