The following is some comments from a newsletter I receive from Harry Dent.
He is a respected demographic researcher on investmens trends.
Even though it is the US, it is easy to see the trends here in the vacation/retirement regions ala Mornington Peninsula Melbourne, Northern Beaches NSW, Sunshine Coast.
Quote"
Home prices in high-priced markets will slow and decline over
the remainder of the decade, according to the October edition
of the H.S. Dent Forecast newsletter. "Residential real estate may be nearing a long-term top over the next two years with many markets not seeing new highs for decades given the larger decline our demographic indicators are forecasting after 2010," the Forecast said.
The Dent forecasting method is based on proprietary demographic
models that currently show baby boomers are peaking in their
trade-up home buying cycle.
While demographic trends in many locations will put pressure on
high-end residential prices, a strong economy and low mortgage
rates will cushion the decline "until after 2010 when prices will
fall much more substantially," the newsletter said.
In upscale markets, there have been rising prices on declining
volume. "Like in stock markets, you are likely nearing a top,"
the Forecast points out.
Looking to more positive real estate trends resulting from baby
boomer demographics, the Dent analysis points to "continued
strength and rising prices in ex-urban and vacation/retirement
areas" as people in their late 50s and early 60s buy just ahead
of retirement.
"This maturing segment, especially those in their mid-50s to
early 60s will represent a strong force in residential real
estate trends for the next two decades as the massive baby boom generation moves in rising numbers into peak trade-up, vacation and retirement buying," according to the Forecast.
H.S. Dent Publishing of Dallas, Texas helps people to understand
change and anticipate its arrival through its publications,
including the monthly H.S. Dent Forecast. The Dent methodology
is based on demographics, or the study of whole populations. Its
demographic models have consistently proven their ability to
provide incredibly accurate economic predictions.
"End quote.
You can get the full report and more at
Harry Dent
Garry
He is a respected demographic researcher on investmens trends.
Even though it is the US, it is easy to see the trends here in the vacation/retirement regions ala Mornington Peninsula Melbourne, Northern Beaches NSW, Sunshine Coast.
Quote"
Home prices in high-priced markets will slow and decline over
the remainder of the decade, according to the October edition
of the H.S. Dent Forecast newsletter. "Residential real estate may be nearing a long-term top over the next two years with many markets not seeing new highs for decades given the larger decline our demographic indicators are forecasting after 2010," the Forecast said.
The Dent forecasting method is based on proprietary demographic
models that currently show baby boomers are peaking in their
trade-up home buying cycle.
While demographic trends in many locations will put pressure on
high-end residential prices, a strong economy and low mortgage
rates will cushion the decline "until after 2010 when prices will
fall much more substantially," the newsletter said.
In upscale markets, there have been rising prices on declining
volume. "Like in stock markets, you are likely nearing a top,"
the Forecast points out.
Looking to more positive real estate trends resulting from baby
boomer demographics, the Dent analysis points to "continued
strength and rising prices in ex-urban and vacation/retirement
areas" as people in their late 50s and early 60s buy just ahead
of retirement.
"This maturing segment, especially those in their mid-50s to
early 60s will represent a strong force in residential real
estate trends for the next two decades as the massive baby boom generation moves in rising numbers into peak trade-up, vacation and retirement buying," according to the Forecast.
H.S. Dent Publishing of Dallas, Texas helps people to understand
change and anticipate its arrival through its publications,
including the monthly H.S. Dent Forecast. The Dent methodology
is based on demographics, or the study of whole populations. Its
demographic models have consistently proven their ability to
provide incredibly accurate economic predictions.
"End quote.
You can get the full report and more at
Harry Dent
Garry