Agreed, but if the next 3 months continues like that last then we will have to call it a trend!
Victoria now in recession
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Agreed, but if the next 3 months continues like that last then we will have to call it a trend!
Agreed, but I can't see a trend higher forming (in Melbourne). Looking at elevated stock on market, volume of sales, Victorian economy (e.g. recession), still state with worst yields, about only positive has been improvement in auction clearance rates. In my opinion the quarters growth was probably a blip on the way to lower prices over the next 12 months.
I've been saying it for months (over a year actually) that we are in an recession.
We, being everyone who is not directly related to the mining industry.
I've been hearing from my customers - mostly yer everyday Aussie working families, retirees and tradies, and other folk I know who re in various types of businesses - that things aren't going all that well.
Yes, there are always pockets of good news, but overall; news isn't good.
Most tradies are either putting off staff, or are calling the builders to try and drum up work.
That figure is derived from what?
It'd be interesting to see what the levels of stock have been compared to previous years, and what the average time on the market for houses is sitting at.
Every time I mention times are bad I get poo-hooed.
There's always someone who's in a place that's motoring along nicely, oblivious to the wider fabric, ready to jump in with "whaddyatorkinabowd, idiot"'.
Was referring to RP data's stats!
http://www.rpdata.com/research/daily_indices.html
http://www.rpdata.com/research/back_series.html
Using "Final State Demand" to measure a recession is misleading as it is incomplete data that does not include exports.
I note the final paragraph of the article,
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/03/non-mining-australia-in-recession-last-quarter/
"Of course, the December quarter national accounts are backward looking, and given the recent improvement of the various second tier data, it could be the case that non-mining states have already exited recession, but that it won’t show up until the March quarter accounts are released mid-year."
Which of the second tier data improvements would you suggest is most important to the states mentioned by the OP (Vic, SA, ACT & Tas)?
No answer turk?
Despite the recent pickup in Melbourne prices, there is plenty to suggest that the Melbourne market remains weak and will turn back down.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/03/victorian-transfers-and-mortgages-contract/
Your fixation on the false gloom peddled by doom merchants like MacroBusiness and Steve Keen is ultimately going to leave you in a worse financial position than you would otherwise be in.
Their blinkered agenda is blinding you to what is really happening in the market.
Melbourne is already up 6% since the middle of last year... http://www.rpdata.com/research/back_series.html
So what? Are you suggesting that you perfectly timed a Melbourne purchase, buying at the bottom and now preparing to sell for a 6% profit? Or you think the Melbourne market is going higher (and if so how much/by when)?
The fundamentals are not in Melbourne's favour and their deteriorating economy will not help.
If anything by pointing out the 6% move in prices you are just highlighting the ridiculous nature of using a daily index to measure an asset which is on average held for a period measured in years.
Why would you think I was suggesting that? I don't get it?
I didn't say what I thought the Melbourne market would do in the future - I pointed out that it has risen by 6% while MacroBusiness have been preaching gloom.
Yet prices just rose 6%.
The 6% increase is cumulative over 8 months, not just a daily reading.
Perhaps MB should have been warning about gold rather than scaremongering about the housing market...
Nothing moves up or down in a straight line (and IMO barring any government intervention Melbourne has further to fall). Cherry picking price movements over short time frames is just silly, unless you're trading those price moves.
Agree. As a Victorian and businessman.
Like it or not, VIC is manufacturing and agricultural economy , and both are dying due to unfair overseas competition and high $.
There is talk of "smart tech bus zones" but most blue collar Aussies are too stubborn to retrain and frankly, why would they, when jobs in IT are flying overseas.
Examples are the famous Goulburn Valley Fruit Growers. This year they had bumper crops due to hot weather, no rain and adequate irrigation yet they are dumping to rot Apricots, Pears, Tomatoes, etc in massive tonnages. Canneries will not take then because
SPC Ardmona managing director, Vince Pinneri, says the company has to adjust because its export market has bottomed out. In 2005 20 per cent of the company's products went overseas. Now that's dropped to 5 per cent.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3289511.htm
I grew up in this region. It is joke and fruit growers and then paid to pull out trees! Yet what comes from OS is dangerous. China uses polluted underground water to water 40% of it crop.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-03/07/c_132216512.htm
And lastly the Made In Australia Debacle.
Did you know any juice that is 50% Australia content is made in Australia? SO take 10% Concentrate from god knows where and 90% water forma tap and bingo, MADE IN AUSTRALIA.
Not good, Peter
I suspect the very low interest rates now beginning to flow through are the game changer in the short term, thus affordability is better than it has been in over a decade.
Jan01-Dec31'st prediction (admit could be way off) = approx 10% growth
(Disclaimer - I've also tipped the pies to win the GF)
Jan01-Dec31'st prediction (admit could be way off) = approx 10% growth
(Disclaimer - I've also tipped the pies to win the GF)
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It must be nice over there in Perth
x2.
Perth schmerth....its all about Perth....but even WA will get hit once Iron Ore prices come back to reality.
Btw, more job cuts point to weak economy.....CSR cuts 150 workers
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/realestate/building-sector-jobs-hit-hard/story-fnczi4hc-1226595288577
Building sector in da poop for what seems like a long time.........what's it been now - 4 years?
Another interest rate cut coming up......lots of ppl on here jumped the gun on fixing their rates me thinks.
Holding your nerve on fixing rates my fellow somersofties....we're going downnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.
I respectfully and sadly disagree. VIC is sick and needs a Kennett style hard medicine solution. Wish ti was not, as i have more than a few IPs in VIC but there you are.
IMO interest rates don't matter when you don't have a job.
And I support the Swans who are the GF champions!!
Regards Peter 14.7
+1 Peter 14.7
