WA - are you ready...?

See my further comments below;


Blue Card! said:
2. A non issue i think. We all learnt a lot from HIH 8 years ago.

but a lot of builders didn't - and still haven't !!! the big players are lined up and have it alright anyway - the top 4 or 5 have about 80% of the market here. there's prob 10% of homes out there that will be "floating" - collier homes style - if their insurance isn't sorted. how you can say it's a "non-issue" when you can't get a building license without it made my jaw drop.

The difference this time BC is we've all had over 6 months to prepare for what is coming. The remaining insurers (and brokers) have been doing what they can to snap up new business. I'd be surprised if anyone was caught. If the big players are then the government will underwrite them like last time.

3. $2 p/brick is what Owner builders and Small low volume builders will pay, i can't see us going up higher than what we were in the boom though.

my point is that brickies will charge $2 to your larger volume builders - should change things i would have thought...?

I'm not aware of any big project builder that paid that much in the boom, i'd be really surprised (and really happy also) considering the highest we paid was $1200 p/1000. Nevertheless we have, and i would think most good builders, have factored in a price increase for all our subbies for the past 4 months.
Click to expand...
 
i think we're arguing the same point here Snort.

i'm not saying builders have ever paid $2 a brick, i'm saying we may see those prices as a minimum in the future because 9000 starts in Q1-10 will be a real drain on the state's already drained labour market.

remember when if the bricks were on one side of the site, and the sand on the other, the brickies would just keep driving to the next job? that's where i see it getting again.
 
Hafta wait for the boom to bust again, then I will start developing IP2 into IP2 & IP3. About 7 years time sounds good.
 
I am not really sure there will be a boom in 5 years time. The $21k has really pushed the low end market on transactions (I sold 5 of my properties to first home buyers). I have been looking for a place to move in and bought a RP data license and check the property on the market and find there are so many properties having been sitting there years with price dropped 50% or more from their initial asking price. A lot of suburbs - selling a house is simply a "luck" rather than market force.
 
Weekend Australian 10-10-09

Did anyone read the Weekend Australian business section? There was an article on WA and the potential housing shortages... A friend told me about it... Can anyone give us a brief lowdown as to the article?
 
Sorry to burst any bubbles here, but have you read this article? In the paper today and all over the radio:

First home buyers free up rental properties
KATE CAMPBELL, The West Australian
October 15, 2009, 2:32 am


Perth's rental vacancy rate hit a 14-year high in the past three months as first homebuyers left the rental market thanks to record low interest rates and government handouts.

Real Estate Institute of WA preliminary figures released today show Perth house prices barely moved in the September quarter, creeping up 1.5 per cent to a median value of $457,000.

The rental vacancy rate jumped from 3.5 per cent to 4.8 per cent in the quarter to the highest level since December 1995, while rents remained relatively flat.

New REIWA president Alan Bourke said with a slack vacancy rate and substantial number of new homes just finished or being built, Perth did not have a housing shortage like the east coast.
Sales in the September quarter rose 5 per cent, but listings continued to fall to a below-average level of 11,200 properties on the market.

Trade-up buyers were returning to the market, with figures showing homes valued at $500,000 to $600,000 posted the strongest results in the past three months.

The best performing suburbs in the quarter were Belmont with 4 per cent price growth, Melville and surrounds with a 3.5 per cent jump and Stirling East with a 2 per cent increase.


http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/62...tal-properties/

New REIWA president Alan Bourke said with a slack vacancy rate and substantial number of new homes just finished or being built, Perth did not have a housing shortage like the east coast.
 
Just 1.5% growth per quarter? Damn, how will we survive? That will only double house prices in 12 years, instead of 10.

Still got 2% population growth, still no money for developers to start new housing projects (supply coming on now was all approved and started pre GFC...), still got 1 billion + Chinese and Indians moving from rural to urban living over the next 20 years. And they ain't doing it without a huge amount of gas, iron ore, and uranium, of which we happen to have plenty...

I'll take my chances folks
 
Agreed.

Some of the points in the article I think are accurate, that is the case that rents are/were in decline or steady and vacancy increased. But how long will that last I think is the important point here.

Incidentally, the West Australian is such a rubbish newspaper, it's Today Tonight in print form. I reluctantly buy it for the real estate section :)
 
the West Australian is such a rubbish newspaper, it's Today Tonight in print form.
Click to expand...
Thoroughly Agree !
I am selling an IP in Perth, holding one up North and the other in Syd.
No longer think Perth is a safe bet . Gonna stick where the money is .
Gotta know when to hold em.. gotta know when to fold em . :cool:
 
mr_taco said:
Thoroughly Agree !
I am selling an IP in Perth, holding one up North and the other in Syd.
No longer think Perth is a safe bet . Gonna stick where the money is .
Gotta know when to hold em.. gotta know when to fold em . :cool:
Click to expand...

So where is the money, if not in the resource centres? It's a really odd time to be cashing out of Perth, do you really have to sell?
 
Ausprop said:
So where is the money, if not in the resource centres? It's a really odd time to be cashing out of Perth, do you really have to sell?
Click to expand...

Up North, holding there for sure . Will re-evaluate that in 24 months . If Gorgon is a white elephant I 'm bailing .
 
Not much chance of Gorgon being a white elephant I think. There has already been too much invested. I'm in that industry and I can see the only way is up from here.
 
Colliers are holding an investor seminar next week with Bankwest Chief Economist talking about WA Economy and Gorgon LNG project. I think WA will surprise a few Eastern States property spruikers.
 
mr_taco said:
The rental vacancy rate jumped from 3.5 per cent to 4.8 per cent in the quarter to the highest level since December 1995, while rents remained relatively flat.
Click to expand...

If that were the case, then how come in the latest API magazine it states that Perth's vacancy rate is 1.8%???
 
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