It looks like somebody agrees with me...
Continued here ... http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=444804
We will have a property crash, but this isn’t it! (M. Yardney)
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
It looks like somebody agrees with me...
Continued here ... http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=444804
Hi Token Funder,
Interesting to review this thread now that a year has passed.
In relation to your post above, how do you feel the tighter availability of funds has impacted property prices over the past year, and how much additional tightening would be required to actually prevent house prices from continuing to rise?
Note that our population is growing a LOT faster than the UK...
Net Population Growth
While building approvals are at record lows...
Shadow.
Shadow - gotta pull you up there mate. there's a few inconsistencies that a blanket graph can't show.
UK = 0.4% of 63.5mil population = 2.54mil growth per annum.
AUS = 1.6% of 23mil population = 3.68mil growth per annum.
percentage - absolutely - growing faster.
numbers - absolutely - growing faster.
skilled percentage - this is what counts - about 98% of AUS 3.7mil will be skilled. about 2% of UKs 2.5mil will be skilled. HUGE DIFFERENCE.
small but important postscript. immigration is one thing - unskilled migrants with no job oppoirtunities are a self fulfilling prophecy for those D&Gers that liek to spout "room numbers" instead of "dwelling numbers". unskilled labourers can't produce more income for themselves. they are the lower rungs of the financial pyramid.
skilled labourers can make better paths for themselves and those paths lead to higher incomes. higher incomes would , as a natural course, lead to living in a "dwelling", not sharing a "room" with the rest of the family.
another nail in the coffin for D&G.
i'm arguing the same point there Shadow, but i think you just missed some important information.
Tighter availability of funds = higher house prices it seems.
...and so is the cash available.
therefore, if supply has dwindled, but so has demand, then the ratios of supply / demand are still similar.
therefore, there's no logical argument for a c-c-c-crash.
therefore, if supply has dwindled, but so has demand, then the ratios of supply / demand are still similar.
therefore, there's no logical argument for a c-c-c-crash.
BlueCard - you make a VERY valid argument regarding immigration into Australia. Having lived with a Persian man going through the processes of trying to immigrate, I can assure you it is NOT that easy to get into this country!
He is a 30yo professional, has a university degreee, good job history, speaks english well, his sister and family are already residents/citizens (she was a political assylum seeker from Iran)... but yet the only way he can get residency is to go thru uni in Oz as an international student, in a degree that scores high "immigration points".
Then once he has the degree he can get residency.
Its not easy - even for someone like him, who scored an 8.0 on his English IELTS test (which is a lot higher than a lot of aussie high school graduates!!) and already has a degree in industrial management.
He is a 30yo professional, has a university degreee, good job history, speaks english well, his sister and family are already residents/citizens (she was a political assylum seeker from Iran)... but yet the only way he can get residency is to go thru uni in Oz as an international student, in a degree that scores high "immigration points".
Then once he has the degree he can get residency.
Its not easy - even for someone like him, who scored an 8.0 on his English IELTS test (which is a lot higher than a lot of aussie high school graduates!!) and already has a degree in industrial management.
Congratulations to him for scoring an 8!
Wise words from Yardney, well done Mike.
I agree. But I disagree with Player on the belief that there will be a big USA style crash around 2016 that is construction over supply led. I don't believe we will reach a state of over supply, ever! We are way too far behind growth for that in my opinion. Only time will tell though. We also have a tradesman shortage so cannot build fast enough if we tried.
I agree. But I disagree with Player on the belief that there will be a big USA style crash around 2016 that is construction over supply led. I don't believe we will reach a state of over supply, ever! We are way too far behind growth for that in my opinion. Only time will tell though. We also have a tradesman shortage so cannot build fast enough if we tried.
i don't believe Australia will ever have a construction led crash because our government planning systems are reactionary not predictory.
I was just checking out this thread and bumped into this pearl from Bluecard (and none notice it in a week time!!!)
I think like TF and WW I need a couple of week of holiday
)I think if you do 1.6% of 23 mil would make 368k not 3.68 mil that make a HUGE DIFFERENCE
I think like TF and WW I need a couple of week of holiday
I was just checking out this thread and bumped into this pearl from Bluecard (and none notice it in a week time!!!
I think if you do 1.6% of 23 mil would make 368k not 3.68 mil that make a HUGE DIFFERENCE
I think like TF and WW I need a couple of week of holiday
I reckon both figures are out by a decimal place, ie UK 254 000 and us 368 000 pa.
So it's still in our favour.
Sure, Also UK won the Ashes this year, that makes also a huge difference in their favour and as important for home prices next year as the difference in those population growth numbers.
And, by the way, it is far from granted australia population growth number will stay at 1.6%. with those kind of number 20k new jobs need to be created every month to keep a steady unemployment rate, last month we lost 20k jobs and unemployment was steady (partecipation rate wasn't down enough to compensate that)....
last month we lost 20k jobs and unemployment was steady (partecipation rate wasn't down enough to compensate that)....
only in some states. WA unemployment falling. As the boom unfolds it wouldn;t be surprising to see NSW and Vic unemplyment remain high or rising. Mobility of labour is required and the henry review is trying to address that to some extent with its attack on stamp duties...I whole heartedly agree. An insiduous sleazy tax that rots our economy from within.
I was just checking out this thread and bumped into this pearl from Bluecard (and none notice it in a week time!!!
I think if you do 1.6% of 23 mil would make 368k not 3.68 mil that make a HUGE DIFFERENCE
I think like TF and WW I need a couple of week of holiday
nice of you to focus only on ONE side of the figures and not the other. thanks for a well balanced post. you made a difference to the world today.
i messed up a deci place - it still tips the balance in AUS favour.
Over the 12 month period median house prices dropped in real terms in spite of the govt tipping in further cash so I think the impact is self-evident.
We will have to wait and see what impact the reduction in government largesse will have. The other interesting variable not yet in play is IRs. If the RBA believes the hype they will be obliged to return rates to a nuetral setting. I suspect they will though believe they shouldn't as the economy is as weak as a kitten in my view.
ordinarily I would say house prices will rise in the inflationary environment and IRs track them, tho the impact of the resource boom will lead this one. rising house prices will follow the boom which will be reigned in by higher IRs. heaven help those that won't benefit from the boom and will have to suffer under the higher IRs. not sure where that would be exactly as even the rust belt states will be boosted thru GST revenues etc... perhaps the neglected corners that don't have political sway to be thrown the bone they need? Tasmania as a suggestion.
