Well well well, how things change.

Discussion in 'Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware)' started by markpatric, 3rd Mar, 2009.

  1. markpatric

    markpatric Member

    Joined:
    11th Jan, 2004
    Messages:
    534
    Location:
    brisbane
    I dont drop in to this forum much anymore as it has become obvious what a winners positive attitude can backfire and that a lot of what has become accepted as written in stone around here by the "winners brigade" has come to a very.....painful reality.
    As being one of the long time "negative bias posters" it seems now quite imbedded into this forum that long held philosophies are crashing down all over the joint.
    So I am wondering what have people learned from all this?.
    I had sold a few properties myself, after the first boom thinking that was it, then it went again and I thought here I go again, bailed out too early but no now I am very glad I got out when I did.
    I think more than anything you need an escape route and to really think about worst case scenarios.
    What do the long time "positive bias posters" say now, that it is different this time or are there still some out there that hold the belief that the time to buy is when the market tanks in ready for the big upswing?, just like history had proven?, anyone at all who is putting thier money where their mouth is?.
     
  2. wylie

    wylie Member

    Joined:
    29th Apr, 2005
    Messages:
    12,682
    Media:
    238
    Location:
    Brisbane Queensland
    Nothing has changed for us at all. We are holding for the very long term, so apart from losing some money from our superannuation (which we also will not touch for a longish time) we are just doing what we have always done, accepting ever increasing rent which makes our holding costs lower as time goes by.

    Haven't bought for three years, but if we can afford to buy again, we will consider doing so.
     
  3. keithj

    keithj Member

    Joined:
    29th Sep, 2002
    Messages:
    5,327
    Media:
    19
    Location:
    Blue Mountains
    You mean failed states ? civil unrest ? failure of reserve currencies ? A move back to survival ? Hunters & gatherers ? Veggie gardens ? World population to fall by 95%+ because we can't feed ourselves ? Sea levels rising by 80m by 2100 ? Or even worse ?..... no more internet (or SS) :eek:?
     
  4. stumunro

    stumunro PCA

    Joined:
    5th Nov, 2007
    Messages:
    1,048
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    not sure I'm seeing the same things out there as markpatric

    good demand in lower end, interest rates coming down, prices relatively stable, a few fire sale properties presenting good opportunities.


    Nothings changed on my side, still buying when I can afford to - would love to pickup a few bargains but just can't afford it.. Purchasing a PPOR soon
     
  5. BV

    BV Think outside the square

    Joined:
    11th Sep, 2003
    Messages:
    5,397
    Location:
    SYDNEY N.S.W
    Nothing's changed for me.

    I've actually restructured my portfolio to reduce my exposure with 1 lender and then moved my super first into cash and now into my next IP.

    At some stage I'd like to fix some of my loans for peace of mind more than anything else and then forget them for 10 years or so.

    My worst case scenario would be when/if I lose my job
    in which case I'll take a looong holiday and worry about things when I get back.
     
  6. steveadl

    steveadl Member

    Joined:
    16th Apr, 2007
    Messages:
    5,112
    Location:
    Adelaide, SA
    Why do you assume all the positive posters here are having trouble? The same way not everyone benefited in the upswings. :rolleyes:

    Check out this or this for my deluded current reality. :rolleyes:

    But then again that doesn't really suit the tone of your thread, so perhaps just disregard it. Still beats me why all the D&G'ers assume every market in Aust. will tank simultaneously and cause ruin? Not everyone suffers during recessions, some prosper and exit stronger than they went in - without the need for panic. :confused:
     
  7. markpatric

    markpatric Member

    Joined:
    11th Jan, 2004
    Messages:
    534
    Location:
    brisbane
    Gday Keith, no just plain old common sense although what you mentioned is already being factored in by anyone with any sense, it may or may happen but to ignore it and have your head in the clouds is proving to be less than truly wise would you not agree?.
    And as far as super goes, it may be a case of get out while you can.
    What do they say 10% of something is better than 100% of nothing?.
    I watch the finance shows these days even the hard nuts are talking cut your losses.
    I was just meaning that all the believers in "what you think is what you become", or that it does not "take money to make money" type mentality are learning some hard lessons, being that they do not have the answers they thought they were supposed to have by joining that elite small % of society that do have the answers and brush of all failures as mere puddle on thier climb to world domination as they stomp on the pysche of the poor weak minded/self pitying majority who work hard at pathetic menial type day jobs.:rolleyes:
    Can Anthony Robbins or Robert Kiyosaki live forever, can he flap his arms and fly?, no he can`t but he would sure like you to believe he could.
    I`ll bet everyone who works for wall street or invested with Madoff read all the books and followed all the lessons from these great wise masters of bs.
    I am not being condescending as I am not in the best of financial positions either.
     
  8. natecv8

    natecv8 Member

    Joined:
    20th Dec, 2007
    Messages:
    91
    Location:
    Melbourne, VIC
    I'm not sure who you are addressing here. I for one couldn't care less what Kiyosaki or Robbins can or cannot do. I've never read or listened to either. I have never given a cent to Bernie Madoff. I'm not concerned about my super in the least (sure, It's dropped 29% since Dec 2007 high but it's MUCH less than my property equity).

    I've also never had a better equity position, and I sleep well at night even though I'm a contractor in a difficult market who has already had one contract terminated early.

    I hope you can say the same for yourself? I wouldn't want to be particularly dangerously over-leveraged but I'd much rather have property debt right now than hold cash in a very low interest rate environment which I expect will become particularly inflationary after the inevitable recovery, whenever that may be.

    If this is the big "I TOLD YOU SO" moment for the contrarian brigade, I for one am bitterly disappointed.
     
    vincenzo likes this.
  9. stumunro

    stumunro PCA

    Joined:
    5th Nov, 2007
    Messages:
    1,048
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW

    hahaha...im not suprised :p
     
  10. Player

    Player Live Every Day

    Joined:
    14th Feb, 2008
    Messages:
    2,965
    Location:
    Paradiso
    It's always darkest before the dawn.....

    I learnt my property lessons to not over-leverage from the early 90's. Lived thru and survived. Have not sold down my IP portfolio however. The blue chip stuff has come off about 15-20 % and this includes our PPOR. The cheaper IP stock is going up in value. I am also in a position to add doors and develop some of holdings.....but not right yet. I own no shares at present.

    Have some cash in term deposits waiting for a home (no offsets set up at present). Return is poor, but I get to keep my money. Volatility doesn't suit my temperament these days. I have two loans coming off fixed later in the year, so am looking forward to a further improvement in cashflow position.

    My portfolio is in various entities. Opportunities are out there for those with "opportunity eyes" on. Our SMSF picked up a corker last year (40 % below valuation), and quite appropriately made me liquidate the last of our share holdings ;)

    I'm sitting on my hands at the moment and watching, researching and working out my strategy to accumulate more, when the time is right and the purchases suit my criteria. I will however caveat, I believe IMHO that portfolio LVR's should be kept leaner than in the bullish times. For me and to cater for SANF, before further accumulation, below 70 per cent (mine is actually well below this), but I stress that is my opinion and suits my situation and temperament currently.

    I feel there will be some more grey skies that will continue to affect sentiment and the media will of course do its bit to perpetuate and talk up the gloom, and that's when the best bit of the caper begins........it's always darkest before the dawn.

    I am waiting for a little more night fall before I pounce on my next purchases.......both property and shares. I do not know how long the darkness will be, however I'm in no rush

    For me and my family's current position, Life's Good......very, very good:)
     
    josko likes this.
  11. AlmostBob

    AlmostBob Evil Landlord

    Joined:
    14th Jan, 2006
    Messages:
    2,751
    Media:
    70
    Location:
    NS the frozen north, NT the frying north
    Gloom lets ladylove find bargains
    everyone get gloomy
    rental income is 100% over costs @4.5% mortgages and CG 400K+ in 3 years
    we are closing on 6 this month, we bought a street
    Next there is another street, about a mile away from the first. 4 houses and a garage, and the vendor took 15K off asking as we approached him. Kathryn's reputation preceeds her.

    If Gordon Gekko were into Real Estate, "Gloom, is Good"

    ( this is our street )
     
    Last edited: 3rd Mar, 2009
    Player likes this.
  12. josko

    josko BluePlanet-Green Shackles

    Joined:
    18th Mar, 2008
    Messages:
    2,674
    Location:
    Sydney, Newcastle, Central Coast.
    Well said, Player,

    My thoughts too.

    Markpatric, I don't know whether you are being cantankerous or not....words can be misleading when taken out of context and written in the wrong frame of mind.

    You will not get anywhere unless you have a positive attitude. You cannot criticise people for their optimism and belief in their own good fortune.

    Without optimism we would not have many of things in life we call luxuries if it weren't for the optimists that thought it was possible to have them.

    I don't know that you could say many people have their heads in the clouds on this forum. It seems to me that 90% of the SS'rs here are more educated in economics than you give them credit for.

    I have learned a sweet lesson this time around, but am oh so thankful for it and don't intend to make the same mistakes twice.

    Regards JO
     
  13. Player

    Player Live Every Day

    Joined:
    14th Feb, 2008
    Messages:
    2,965
    Location:
    Paradiso
    Sometimes we win...sometimes we learn

    Good on ya JO,

    it's important to learn the lessons that we are presented with.

    In life,.........sometimes we win, and sometimes we learn (insert "lose" for those who focus on the empty part of their glass) ;)

    No one hurt their eyesight by looking at the bright side of life :)
     
    quoll likes this.
  14. josko

    josko BluePlanet-Green Shackles

    Joined:
    18th Mar, 2008
    Messages:
    2,674
    Location:
    Sydney, Newcastle, Central Coast.
    Especially with those nice sunglasses on!:eek: (referring to pic)

    Regards JO
     
  15. markpatric

    markpatric Member

    Joined:
    11th Jan, 2004
    Messages:
    534
    Location:
    brisbane
    Hi Jo, there has always been a smug element on the forum, that look down on others that are in unfortunate circumstances or say that there is enough room in the world for all to be rich and successful but this just is not right even a good thing to believe, it is actually counterproductive to a healthy society.
    Of course it always good to be positive, absolutely strive for that but never run down others in a worse position and claim that you are of a higher education or mental state etc, this is pure rubbish.
    It`s a numbers game with a lot of different factors involved, certainly hard work and study will place you higher up the ladder but it doesn`t ensure success.
    If what these gurus and glass half full types really believe is true why is the world in the state it is in?.

    Why don`t they teach finance and "think and grow rich" in schools?.
    Because time has shown that it does nothing but cause a decay in real values.
    It is funny how you are bought up to believe this and that yet the governments and large corporations all show otherwide on a daily basis and everyone accepts that it is ok.

    Look at what Bush (and Howard) got away with:eek:!.
     
  16. keithj

    keithj Member

    Joined:
    29th Sep, 2002
    Messages:
    5,327
    Media:
    19
    Location:
    Blue Mountains
    That's my feeling at the moment. We're living through a 1 in 60+ yr event. Nobody (not even **:rolleyes:) can forecast the future with any degree of accuracy - there's way to much uncertainty around ATM. What have previously been regarded as left field events are now happening on a regular basis. My view is sit tight, wait till enough of the uncertainty dissipates, then back to business.

    (Not quite sure if any of this is relevant to the thread though :confused:)
     
  17. AUSPROP...

    AUSPROP... Member

    Joined:
    19th Sep, 2008
    Messages:
    421
    Location:
    PERTH
    Jan Somers is rock solid in her belief. This negativity is really a flash in the pan over the course of a long term investment philosophy. D&Gers come and go with every bear market.

    Maybe things are different this time, maybe they aren't. All I know is that there is some great buying out there - it's an asset jumble sale, you just need to pick thru and get the best bits.
     
    vincenzo likes this.
  18. wylie

    wylie Member

    Joined:
    29th Apr, 2005
    Messages:
    12,682
    Media:
    238
    Location:
    Brisbane Queensland
    Why not have a bex and a lie down???

    Not sure there are any on here that think like this. On the odd occasion that some tosser does post along this line, I tend to think he/she is a tosser and I imagine most others here would too.
     
  19. Token Funder

    Token Funder Token Funder

    Joined:
    6th Nov, 2007
    Messages:
    1,820
    Location:
    Bizarro World

    Not sure that's quite true.
     
  20. wylie

    wylie Member

    Joined:
    29th Apr, 2005
    Messages:
    12,682
    Media:
    238
    Location:
    Brisbane Queensland
    I have occasionally cringed when I have read anything that sounds like this, so I suppose there have been comments along this line.

    But as I said, those types of comments are not the "norm" here.