We're building towards a home construction boom

[MichaelW]

Resi construction slipped in that quarter by 1.1%.

The uplift is everywhere else.

Yep, sorta what I said. Give it time...

Looks like we're not dead just yet:

First base for a housing bounce

As the pool of potential first-home buyers is finite at around the 130,000 per annum level, it means that a future demand of around 60,000 first-home buyers had been brought forward to take advantage of the boost. With about 90,000 to 95,000 loans to first-home buyers expected over each of 2010 and 2011, this 'pull forward' effect has now largely been exhausted, and demand from first home buyers should slowly return back to underlying average levels.

Yes, I know, its BIS. But sometimes the message is informative despite the messenger. Still looking over my shoulder at Europe, but domestically things are ticking in the right direction barring a complete freeze on global financial markets which isn't out of the question.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[hobo-jo]

And then there's this...
Breathing life into Aussie property

With several rate cuts on the cards in the months ahead, the housing market should be revitalised, but it might take a while to filter through.

Only a month ago CJ was still screaming black and blue about further increases in the RBA cash rate...

 

[Shadow]

Here comes Shadows construction boom and $m median house prices!!

@rpdata: In New South Wales, dwelling commencements are now 25% lower than the decade average.

Oh wait....

LOL, Jay, you're taking this obsession with me to unhealthy levels. Next thing you'll be pulling a Token Funder and dragging up my old quotes from four years ago to prove me wrong on some minor technicality!

The construction boom is coming - the NSW government has already made some positive noises regarding their plans to boost construction activity. Be patient...

 

[Belbo]

That's some mean conspiracy you're involved in Shadow. Crikey! And I thought international political relations was complicated. Phew!

 

[hobo-jo]

LOL, Jay, you're taking this obsession with me to unhealthy levels. Next thing you'll be pulling a Token Funder and dragging up my old quotes from four years ago to prove me wrong on some minor technicality!

Jay?

Obsession? Hardly. Just pointing out your connection with the APF trolls (assuming it's not just you playing sock puppet by yourself).

There will be no need for technicalities, your predictions were quite clear:

I always said the construction-led boom will begin in Sydney around 2010-2011. We just had to wait for the incompetent state government to get kicked out first. I expect the new NSW government will shortly introduce new policies to encourage residential property development in response to the escalating public dissatisfaction with the state of Sydney housing, currently manifesting in extremely tight vacancy rates, rapid rent increases, and rising house prices. So watch out for the construction boom - starting this year in Sydney as predicted.

I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction, simply based on extrapolating the median price lines against the trendlines, following similar peaks and dips to previous booms...

Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000
Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

A prediction which softened by some 25% following the GFC:

I don't think it's out of the question, considering that Sydney prices fell 20% in real terms between 2003 and 2008. I believe the Sydney median house price will approach $1M by 2014-2015.

There's no issue with being wrong as long as you work out why it was so and learn from it.

Some of the short term predictions (metals/stock related) on my blog have been wrong.

Christopher Joye has been dead wrong on interest rates all year.

We all get things wrong, there's nothing wrong with being wrong

 

[Token Funder]

Minor technicalities, indeed

Hi Oracle,

Yes, I reckon Sydney is set to boom next. Sydney has gone nowhere for the past 5 years... prices are well below trend... the median house price is 15% down on the 2003/2004 peak in real terms. Construction activity is currently at record lows and population growth is very strong.

2010-2011... that's my prediction for when it will all begin...

More here: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=441496#post441496

Cheers,

Shadow.

 

[Shadow]

That's some mean conspiracy you're involved in Shadow. Crikey! And I thought international political relations was complicated. Phew!

Yes, it's quite amazing the fantasy stories these conspiracy theorists can weave from a few snippets of hearsay, rumour and innuendo! I guess it drives traffic to his 'Bullion Baron' blog and he is profiting from the Google adverts that are strewn all over the site which was probably the main aim of the whole article. The whole article is just one big troll... which is quite ironic!

 

[Shadow]

Just pointing out your connection with the APF trolls

You didn't establish any connection to me, nor did you even establish there were trolls on APF. You just took some nonsense that some guy called 'pauk' told you, mixed it up with some of your own inventions, and wrote it all down with zero evidence to back it up. It's all a bit silly really, but I hope the revenue from the Google adverts that are strewn all over your site was worth it.

We all get things wrong, there's nothing wrong with being wrong

Indeed! I make so many predictions, it's hardly surprising I get 10-20% of them wrong. But I'm happy with my 80-90% track record.

As for the Sydney construction boom, it has already started - the official planning stage has already begun, the government has set the wheels in motion.

I guess it's not going to reflect in the reports for a few more months, but it is coming.

 

[Shadow]

Minor technicalities, indeed

Excellent quote, thanks TF. I made that Sydney boom prediction in 2008, and Sydney prices jumped 20% shortly afterwards. Not a bad call.

From what I remember, you bears were calling a 40% crash back then...

 

[Token Funder]

Excellent quote, thanks TF. I made that Sydney boom prediction in 2008, and Sydney prices jumped 20% shortly afterwards. Not a bad call.

From what I remember, you bears were calling a 40% crash back then...

I wasn't, as you well know.

And you were talking about a construction led boom , as you well know.

Hi Shadow,

Interesting article.

What do you reckon which part of Australia will trigger the construction boom first? And what's your prediction on which cities should we keep an eye on?

I can guess Sydney should be among the top 2 if not the top 1.

Cheers,
Oracle.

Hi Oracle,

Yes, I reckon Sydney is set to boom next. Sydney has gone nowhere for the past 5 years... prices are well below trend... the median house price is 15% down on the 2003/2004 peak in real terms. Construction activity is currently at record lows and population growth is very strong.

2010-2011... that's my prediction for when it will all begin...

More here: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?p=441496#post441496

Cheers,

Shadow.

Minor technicality my son.

In any caee, I tend not to see a crash on the horizon.

You, on the other hand have a certain, shall we say, infatuation with boom and crashes.

Uninterrupted growth followed by unprecedented CRASH

I believe it will... that property will continue to grow as per the trend lines shown below. Which means that the median price in Sydney will exceed one million dollars within the next 7 or 8 years. I expect this massive boom is just round the corner, and in fact that the preliminary growth phase has already begun in several cities...

But will it be followed by the worst bust in history? Again, yes I think it will.

Cheers,

Shadow.

Dip....growth.....construction boom in 10/11! Boom, CRASH

Michael Yardney makes the following statement in his newsletter this month...



Now... I happen to agree with this. I believe the next property crash will begin sometime around 2016, and it could be a big one.

So what will cause this crash?

First of all, we need to consider our recent property boom, which in Australia was characterized primarily by the exchange of existing stock, rather than the development of new stock.

In other words, it was not a construction-led boom, unlike the recent boom in the USA (and also Ireland).

This means we now have a shortage of stock in many places as we move into the next growth cycle during a period of record population growth, record low vacancy rates, and rising rents.

As interest rates fall, the credit crunch eases, and house prices start rising again, I expect a new construction-led boom to kick off in Australia, probably around 2010-2011.

However, I think there is a good chance we will make the same mistake as the US... we will eventually build too many houses (there are currently 18.6 million empty houses in the US).

This oversupply will create a massive glut of property late next decade, just as the baby boomers start to die off, which will further increase supply and reduce demand. This is what will trigger the next big crash.

Anyway, that's just my theory. I would be interested to hear what Michael had in mind when he made the above statement in his newsletter, and also to hear what the other forum members think.

Cheers,

Shadow.

 

[Shadow]

And you were talking about a construction led boom , as you well know

LOL, TF, you have way too much time on your hands! Do you really keep track of my old quotes going back to 2007?

This obsession with me is really unhealthy... do I visit you in your dreams too?

Are you and Bullion Baron related? Perhaps you're one of the secret sources for his blog about me?

Interesting that the longest blog hobo-jo has ever written is mostly about me!

Why am I a trigger for such obsession and paranoia in you bears? What is it about me that gets you guys so wound up?

The construction boom is on track. The official planning stage has already begun and the NSW government has set the wheels in motion as I predicted.

I guess it's not going to reflect in the ABS stats for a few more months, but that's coming too!

 

[hobo-jo]

It's all a bit silly really, but I hope the revenue from the Google adverts that are strewn all over your site was worth it.

I didn't write it to get Adsense clicks, infact if anything Adsense revenue has slowed over the past month since it's been up. But if you think that's my motivation then keep telling yourself it's about the ads if it helps you sleep better at night.

Interesting that the longest blog hobo-jo has ever written is mostly about me!

Wow. Me me me. You've certainly got some issues there Shadow. The word count on the "Shadow" section makes up less than 10% of the article. So unless you are admitting to being Christopher Joye and all the trolls (in which case the article is mostly about you) then you are only a small piece of the puzzle.

 

[Shadow]

Wow. Me me me. You've certainly got some issues there Shadow. The word count on the "Shadow" section makes up less than 10% of the article.

Word count is irrelevant. This one line from your blog gives you away...

"it is my strong opinion that property bull Shadow is involved/connected with the troll group or as some have suggested HE IS the troll group"

In other words... you think the whole thing is about me.

I find it all quite amusing to be honest.

So unless you are admitting to being Christopher Joye and all the trolls (in which case the article is mostly about you) then you are only a small piece of the puzzle.

What puzzle? The whole thing is your silly fantasy! But it is quite entertaining... like an episode of the X-Files.

 

[hobo-jo]

lol, here you are worried about others catching you on a technicality about your predictions when you take a single line from my post to make the entire thing about you. Hope you see the irony. Yes I think you're involved with the troll club. Others have suggested you alone are the troll club.

No sane, reasonable person would waste their time with the cesspit that is APF unless they were behind it.

 

[Shadow]

Yes I think you're involved with the troll club. Others have suggested you alone are the troll club.

Yes, and you thought that was important enough to blog about. Three times.

(I doubt this 'troll club' exists anywhere outside your own imagination).

No sane, reasonable person would waste their time with the cesspit that is APF unless they were behind it.

There are hundreds of active members on APF. I doubt they're all insane. Many of them were regulars on other forums that have now closed down, as you well know. Calling it a 'cesspit' doesn't make it one. It's just a regular forum from what I have seen.

 

[hobo-jo]

If you think it's a fabrication then my suggestion would be to ignore it and stop linking/posting about it

 

[Shadow]

If you think it's a fabrication then my suggestion would be to ignore it and stop linking/posting about it

Ignore it... no way, it's too funny!

 

[hobo-jo]

So is your prediction of a $1-1.25m median house price in Sydney by 2015, so it's good that we can both give each other a chuckle

 

[Shadow]

So is your prediction of a $1-1.25m median house price in Sydney by 2015, so it's good that we can both give each other a chuckle

That prediction is four years old... it was refined a few years ago, as follows...

Sydney median house price to approach $1M by end of 2015 as measured by Residex house price index.

You can have your chuckle in 2016 if I'm wrong...

 

[hobo-jo]

That prediction is four years old... it was refined a few years ago, as follows...

So you can revise a prediction, but Steve Keen can't? You're the one who always digs up that one article where he is quoted as saying housing will fall 40% in a few years, when many other times he has specified and been quoted as saying 40% over 10-15 years.

For someone who complains about technicalities, etc you sure seem to be one that can dish it out but not take it