What does $500 brl OIL mean??
- Thread starter Bill.L
- Start date
How long before Topcropper wont need oil products on his farm? (I'm including natural gas as an oil product).
RAC on Wellington St already have an ECV (electric charge vehicle) recharge station.
Sure, there are alternatives for cars, but I'd be surprised if they turn out to be cheaper than petrol. There is a lot of energy in one litre of petrol.
No matter what the alternative may look like, it would be a good idea to be prepared to have to pay more for motorised transport.
No matter what the alternative may look like, it would be a good idea to be prepared to have to pay more for motorised transport.
Hi Ausprop
It will be awhile... I can't think of a more biased source than the Better Place website for information on EVs. I suggest turning your attentions further afield. And don't hold your breath waiting - an efficient new car will be beating any and all EVs for some time to come... unless oil really does get to $500/bbl of course.
EVs need more than just a fancy finance and swapping solution for small and expensive cars and batteries (as advocated by Better Place) ... they actually need bigger and cheaper cars and batteries with more range and better performance.
Progress has improved on that for sure but it's a long and winding road and we're not there yet by any means.
Yes but one is talking about current technology.
What about planes when they first took to the air, what about ships?, what about the internet when bill gates was still working in his garage?
I think its risky to extrapolate current conditions into the future.
As you said there are 4000+ variables in the equation. But i wonder what is the sensitivity of those variables to
(a) self preservation and needs: ie humans act in their own best interest over long periods of time. As oil rises, there is increased incentive to reduce consumption, either through efficiency or substitute products (which were less viable at lower pricing levels)
(b) the profit motive: ie above for containment of costs, + the profit motive increasing supply.
There could well be periods of severe disruption (essentially due to a time lag between demand and increased supply), but mankind has not just survived but also prospered (granted potential timing lags) through numerous challenges before, and they will do again with 'peak oil'.
Peak oil and the 'end of humanity as we know it' is only possible with COMMUNISM.
There needs to be huge improvements in battery technology to make EV's viable.
That includes batteries becoming increasingly inefficient over a 4 year period.
That includes batteries becoming increasingly inefficient over a 4 year period.
oil @ $500bbl means the mining for lithium becomes stupid expensive as well, don't forget.
unless we all get out there with a few town's worth of labour and dig holes in the ground with shovels, but then we gotta feed 'em with food grown from fertiliser....
i'd be more worried about buying an EV now, rather than a petrol car. think of all the advancements over the next 5 years in EV technology, you'd be driving a CD in an MP4 world.
unless we all get out there with a few town's worth of labour and dig holes in the ground with shovels, but then we gotta feed 'em with food grown from fertiliser....
i'd be more worried about buying an EV now, rather than a petrol car. think of all the advancements over the next 5 years in EV technology, you'd be driving a CD in an MP4 world.
Aaron, Some very good points there. It probably explains why the production runs of EVs are so small, including the planned production over the next few years. When the technology gets better and people can see them up and running, then they will look at the option. Of course to ramp up production, of something better than the initial EVs, will take time, as in a years.
Even Hirsch, in the US Doe report in 2005 here.....
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf
... explains that it would take 10-20 years of accelerated effort to change the worlds vehicular fleets to options like CTL and LNG, without including the EV option where the technology is not as known and tested.
The aspect about increased costs in producing the alternatives is often lost on people. Many of the options appear as cheap as they are because the relatively low energy costs to make them. Discussion usually arises around how the price of lithium in an EV is very small, only a couple of percent so doubling the cost of it raises the overall price very little. That misses the point that EVERY component of the EV will go up because of the increased costs of fuel, including delivery.
All the increased costs of higher energy must mean less money for other things. Discretionary spending has to be reduced and the effect will be great on property investment amongst other things.
bye
These gizmo's have been up and running since Sean Connery took off in one in 1965....it's been 45 years and things have unfortunately been ignored.
If the speed of change in computers was the same as these, we'd all have one that fit in our pockets, did 2,000 km/h and had a range of about million k's and cost 50c to fill up.
No bridges, no roads, no tyres, no kerbs, no lifts in buildings, no stairs needed, no boats needed, no cherry pickers, no ladders, no scaffolding, no planes....the list goes on and on.
Govt's might get a bit titchy with the lack of air traffic control though.
When I grow up and get rich, I might pour a dollar or two into these...
http://www.jetpackinternational.com/video.html
Industry has also been using EV for a long while now, this still hasn't however managed to coax any innovation towards magical future batteries.
Sometimes there are scientific limitations towards what you can achieve and create, its just working out whats possible and whats not possible yet. The fundamental problem I see with EV is the degeneration of efficiency with batteries over short periods of time (4 years), meaning that you have to replace expensive environmentally not so friendly batteries regularly.
On a lighter note, bring on the Hydrogen filled graphene sponge cars of tomorrow!
Sometimes there are scientific limitations towards what you can achieve and create, its just working out whats possible and whats not possible yet. The fundamental problem I see with EV is the degeneration of efficiency with batteries over short periods of time (4 years), meaning that you have to replace expensive environmentally not so friendly batteries regularly.
On a lighter note, bring on the Hydrogen filled graphene sponge cars of tomorrow!
As reported today:
According to the report "Drive Green 2020: More Hope Than Reality." In ten years, just 7.3% of passenger vehicles sold globally will be hybrids or plug-in cars of some kind, the study predicts.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/27/autos/jdpa_hybrid_electric_study/index.htm?iid=MPM
According to the report "Drive Green 2020: More Hope Than Reality." In ten years, just 7.3% of passenger vehicles sold globally will be hybrids or plug-in cars of some kind, the study predicts.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/27/autos/jdpa_hybrid_electric_study/index.htm?iid=MPM
while this is a decent report, predictions are just predictions. it also doesn't take into account the variables listed, which are BIG possibilites, just outlining a result if nothing changed and everything tread along as it does right now.
past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Yep. They're fair dinkum about it !!
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future
It's all going to be OK .... the US is determined to "kick the oil habit".
Take 5 and have a laugh !!
LL
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future
It's all going to be OK .... the US is determined to "kick the oil habit".
Take 5 and have a laugh !!
LL
They know it's serious !
Thanks Dazz.... Just demonstrates how seriously the US is taking this problem ( of oil dependency ) at the highest level !!
LL
Thanks Dazz.... Just demonstrates how seriously the US is taking this problem ( of oil dependency ) at the highest level !!
LL
